Access the latest insights on the 2024 Election through HarrisX's exclusive Dashboard
See insights from 2020's most accurate pollster and discover rich, trended data, track key races, and explore key groups leading up to Election DayLEARN MORE
In the six weeks since Donald Trump was sworn in for his second term as president, he has signed 76 executive orders, including 26 on his first day in office.
In a new poll conducted by HarrisX for the Deseret News, Americans were asked about a broad range of issues covered by Trump’s executive orders, and a clear pattern emerged on what actions they favored most.
Among the top five most popular executive orders, three had to do with gender — including a block on transgender women participating in women’s sports, another declaring the federal government would only recognize two sexes in place of gender, and one that ends federal coverage of transgender treatments for minors.
There are echoes in these findings of ads run by the Trump campaign in the final weeks of the 2024 presidential campaign that some pundits say put Trump ahead of his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris. One of the ads describes how Harris supported publicly-funded transgender surgery for prisoners, and ends with the line, “Kamala Harris is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”
“This one ad may have won Donald Trump the election,” former CNN commentator Chris Cillizza wrote on his substack.
The most popular executive order out of the 22 on the survey was Trump’s decision to ban transgender women in female sports. More than 8 out of 10 Republicans said they support that order, while almost 6 in 10 independent voters said the same. This was also Trump’s most popular order among Democrats, but only 4 in 10 Democratic voters said they supported his action on this issue.
When asked if they favored Trump’s executive order “ending gender-affirming care and gender transition for those under age 19,” 57% of Americans expressed support, including 82% of Republicans, 53% of independents and 34% of Democrats. This decision was more popular with men (63%) than women (51%), and was popular with religious voters, with 8 out of 10 evangelical Christians expressing support and 6 out of 10 Catholics.
Support for Trump’s executive order saying the federal government would only recognize two sexes, male and female, received very similar support by survey respondents.
The other two executive orders rounding out the top five were support for declassifying records on the assassination of John F. Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King was supported by 57% of respondents, and building a border wall and deploying law enforcement to the southern border was also supported by 57%.
The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 1,009 Americans on Feb. 14-15, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Poll: Trump’s executive order on renaming Gulf of Mexico least popular
On the other end of the spectrum, voters do not appear to appreciate Trump’s decision to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America.
Only 35% of Americans said they support this decision, including 61% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats and 26% of independents.
The Associated Press’ decision not to change their style guide to reflect Trump’s order to rename the body of water led to the White House’s decision to exclude the AP from covering Trump at certain events, as well as his press conferences in the Oval Office and aboard Air Force One. A federal judge recently allowed the Trump administration to keep the ban in place while the lawsuit continued.
Other orders or ideas that received poor support included dismantling the Department of Education, with only 37% support, ending birthright citizenship, with 41% support, withdrawing from the World Health Organization, with 41% support, and banning all federal diversity, equity and inclusion, with 41% support.
Dismantling DEI programs was very popular among Republicans, with 73% saying they approved of Trump’s decision, but only 21% of Democrats and 35% of independents said the same.
Poll: Trump’s planned tariffs on Mexico and Canada unpopular
While campaigning for president, Trump said frequently he planned to place tariffs on goods coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico. He said the tariffs were in retaliation for the flow of migrants and fentanyl coming across the borders.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have both pushed back on the president’s assertions. So far, Trump has held off on levying the tariffs, but that could change in the coming days. Trump said on Thursday he would levy 25% tariffs on goods coming across the nation’s borders starting on Tuesday, March 4.
That move is not popular with Americans. Only 43% said they approved of putting tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while 46% said they don’t approve.
Americans were also slightly more likely to say they don’t agree with Trump’s decision to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development, with 43% approving compared to 45% who don’t approve.
Do Americans like DOGE?
On the other hand, Americans were much more likely to say they like Trump’s decision to establish the Department of Government Efficiency, which is run by Elon Musk.
Forty-six percent of Americans said they approve of DOGE, compared to 40% who don’t. But while 75% of Republicans approve, only 40% of independent voters said the same, compared to 45% of independents who said they don’t support the president’s decision. Unsurprisingly, Democrats do not like DOGE — only 19% expressed support for the cost-slashing department.
Another popular move by Trump includes his decision to pause Congress’ decision to shut down the app TikTok. He said it needs to be sold, but let the app stay up in the meantime. That decision was less popular with the older crowd — only 37% of people aged 65 or older said the approved of Trump’s decision.
On Trump’s decision to pause refugees coming into the U.S. for 90 days, 46% of Americans said they support the decision compared to 37% who were opposed.
While Pope Francis has criticized Trump over his immigration policies, including his treatment of refugees, and the Catholic Church has sued the Trump administration over the freezing of refugee resettlement funds, 50% of Catholics who responded to the survey said they support Trump’s decision to pause refugee resettlement. Fifty-four percent of evangelical Christians said the same, while 46% of non-evangelical Christians said they approved of Trump’s decision.
Hill TV: HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho discusses the new Harvard-CAPS/Harris poll that reveals how Americans feel about President Trump after his first weeks in office.
President Trump holds a 52 percent approval rating in after his first month back in the Oval Office, polling shows.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris survey found that 33 percent strongly approved of the president’s job performance, and 19 percent somewhat approved. Roughly 43 percent disapproved, with most expressing strong disapproval, and another 5 percent were undecided.
Trump’s numbers differed starkly across party lines; about 9 in 10 Republicans approved of his handling, and nearly 8 in 10 Democrats disapproved. Independents were almost exactly split.
“This is a good start for Trump, though many of his policy initiatives are more popular [than] this,” Mark Penn, the co-director of the poll, said of Trump’s approval rating.
“So Americans are taking a wait and see approach with Trump having the potential to climb higher, especially as 58 percent believe he is doing a better job than [former President] Biden.”
Trump outperformed Biden’s January figures in voter perceptions of how the leaders handled the economy, immigration, foreign affairs and administering the government — though the Republican only crossed the 50-point approval mark on immigration.
The poll tested 11 of Trump’s policies and found all but one earned a majority of voter support. The outlier, with 39 percent support, was his move to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. The top policy, with 81 percent support, was deportation of immigrants “who are here illegally and have committed crimes,” as the poll worded it.
Roughly equal shares of respondents said Trump is doing either better or worse than expected, at 36 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Another 29 percent said he was performing as expected.
A 54 percent majority also said the president’s actions will divide the country, rather than unite it.
Trump’s first month back in the White House came with a barrage of executive action, contentious Cabinet picks and mass firings in the federal government. He’s moved to crack down on immigration, rein in funding, lean into culture wars and slash the size of the federal workforce.
The Trump administration has touted its action-packed month even as controversy builds, particularly over his Department of Government Efficiency commission and the involvement of tech billionaire Elon Musk in overhauling government agencies.
Voters in the poll were divided over Musk, who earned 44 percent each of favorable and unfavorable ratings. Trump was at 50 percent overall favorability to 43 percent unfavorable.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted Feb. 19-20 among 2,443 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.
The margin of error for the entire sample was plus or minus 2 percentage points.
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll that shows President Trump with one his best approval ratings ever, as well as U.S. citizens' views on Elon Musk, DOGE, the post-Biden Democratic Party, and much more.
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Feb. 24, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
In his first month in office, President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 52%, with voters most satisfied with his job on immigration, reducing the cost of the government, and returning America to its values. The majority of voters support Trump's policies on the border, focus on government expenditures, gender, DEI, and offshore drilling but have concerns on his foreign policies involving tariffs, the Israel-Hamas war, and the war in Ukraine. Download key results here.
"People are taking a generally positive wait-and-see attitude for Trump but have really reassessed their attitudes toward Biden, Harris, and the Democrats, taking a much harsher, more negative attitude," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Trump has a real opportunity here – we're seeing a healthy, trudging approval edging toward real approval based on how the next couple of months turn out."
VOTERS FEELING MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT DIRECTION OF COUNTRY AND ECONOMY
42% of voters say the country is on the right track, up 14 points from January 2025 (Democrats: 21% (-9); Republicans: 71% (+37); Independents: 31% (+12)).
31% of voters say their personal financial situation is improving (+5), particularly among Republican, male, Black, and urban voters.
Inflation and immigration remain the top two issues for voters, with a 6-point increase in concern over corruption.
TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICANS START SECOND TERM WITH NET FAVORABLE RATINGS
Donald Trump's favorability stands at 50%, with a net favorable of +7 points.
More voters have a favorable rather than unfavorable view of key cabinet members such Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+9), J.D. Vance (+4), and Tulsi Gabbard (+3).
Voters are split on Elon Musk and Mike Johnson.
The Democratic Party received its lowest approval rating since at least March 2018, with 33% of Democrats, 86% Republicans, and 70% Independents disapproving. 49% of voters approve of the Republican Party (+1). 36% of voters approve of Congress (+5).
TRUMP POLICIES RECEIVE MAJORITY SUPPORT BUT FACE CONCERN OVER INFLATION AND DIVISIVENESS
All of Trump's key policies received majority support except for renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, with deportation of illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (81%), eliminating fraud and waste in government expenditures (76%), and closing the border (76%) as the top three most supported policies.
55% of voters support birthright citizenship for the children of illegal immigrants, with 63% believing it is a requirement in the U.S. constitution, breaking with Trump on the issue.
70% of voters believe the government should make hiring decisions based on merit and objective evaluation rather than to achieve diversity. 51% of voters say Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion departments are needed in government.
40% of voters say Trump's policies will make them financially better off, while 36% believe Trump's policies will make them worse off. 46% of voters say Trump's policies will increase inflation.
54% of voters are worried that Trump's actions will divide the country (Democrats: 82%; Republicans: 20%; Independents: 61%).
VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY SUPPORT CUTTING DOWN GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES BUT ARE SENSITIVE AROUND DATA PRIVACY
67% of voters say the current level of U.S. federal government debt is unsustainable.
83% of voters favor reducing government expenditures over increasing taxes, and 77% say a full examination of all government expenditures is necessary.
70% of voters say government expenditures are filled with waste, fraud, and inefficiency (Democrats: 58%; Republicans: 78%; Independents: 75%), and 69% support the goal of cutting $1 trillion of government expenditures.
60% of voters think DOGE is helping make major cuts in government expenditures.
58% of voters say DOGE employees should not have access to sensitive information on Americans who benefit from government expenditure programs; including names, social security numbers, addresses, and incomes (Democrats: 75%; Republicans: 39%; Independents: 63%).
TARIFFS SEE MAJORITY SUPPORT BUT VOTERS SPLIT OVER CONCERN ON WHETHER THEY WILL HARM OR HELP
57% of voters say tariffs are an effective foreign and economic policy tool. The plurality of voters (44%) believe tariffs on imported goods will increase U.S. government revenue.
62% of voters believe tariffs will raise prices of everyday goods (Democrats: 75%; Republicans: 50%; Independents: 62%).
54% of voters say tariffs will help the Trump administration get concessions from other countries, but 49% of voters say the recent tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports will harm rather than help, and 46% of voters say his tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will do harm.
61% of voters support reciprocal tariffs, with voters split on whether they will harm or help. 53% of voters believe reciprocal tariffs will cause other countries to lower their tariffs on U.S. goods.
THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT ENDING THE WAR IN UKRAINE, BUT OPPOSE LEAVING OUT UKRAINE AND EUROPEAN LEADERS FROM NEGOTIATIONS
72% of voters say they want Ukraine to negotiate a settlement with Russia instead of winning the war. 60% of voters favor Trump announcing direct U.S.-Russia negotiations (Democrats: 40%; Republicans: 85%; Independents: 53%).
59% of voters oppose the Trump administration leaving Ukraine's leaders out of negotiations with Russia. 55% of voters oppose the exclusion of European leaders.
57% of voters oppose the Trump administration forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions to end the war, and 66% of voters say Ukraine should receive security guarantees from the U.S. if it were to make concessions.
61% of voters say security guarantees should be contingent on Ukraine sharing revenue from rare earth elements to pay back U.S. military support.
63% of voters believe Russia will continue to advance onto other countries if it successfully claims Ukrainian territory.
VOTERS SPLIT ON WHETHER TRUMP WAS SERIOUS ABOUT THE U.S. TAKING OVER GAZA, BELIEVE IT IS A BAD IDEA
54% of voters support Trump's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict thus far.
67% of voters have heard of Trump's proposal that the U.S. should take over Gaza to redevelop it. 47% of voters believe Trump was being serious, and 53% believe he was posturing to start negotiations.
70% of voters believe the U.S. taking over Gaza is a bad idea. 56% of voters oppose removing Palestinians from Gaza to rebuild the territory.
Support for Israel over Hamas in the conflict remains high, with 77% of voters supporting Israel.
76% of voters say Iran's nuclear weapons facilities should be destroyed. 57% of voters say the U.S. should support Israel in airstrikes on such facilities (Democrats: 45%; Republicans: 74%; Independents: 51%).
The February Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on February 19-20, 2025, among 2,443 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Super Bowl LIX proved once again to be the biggest night in sports and advertising, giving brands and organizations an opportunity to reach the largest-ever telecast audience. The HarrisX Ad Index shows that out of more than 70 ads Americans saw, the NFL's "Somebody" claimed the title of America's favorite Super Bowl LIX ad.
The winning spot, that features the League's work with youth organizations worldwide, received a HarrisX Ad Index score of 87.8 out of 100. "Somebody," created by 72andSunny ad agency, outperformed the average Super Bowl ad score of 68.8 by nearly 20 points.
LAY's "The Little Farmer," a story about a young potato farmer, came in second place overall and first among consumer product ads with a score of 86.7. It was followed by the Foundation to Combat Antisemitism (FCAS) "No Reason to Hate" (85.1), Budweiser's "First Delivery" (84.5) and He Gets Us with its "What is Greatness?" ad (84.4) rounding out the top five.
In the HarrisX Ad Index study, more than 8,000 respondents were shown up to five randomly selected ads and asked to evaluate the spots individually across seven key advertising metrics. The metrics measured many facets of impact, from ad memorability and clarity, to the intended call-to-action unique to each ad. All 72 spots tested in the study were individually evaluated by at least 500 U.S. adults.
"The Super Bowl is more than a game – it's where sports, culture, and creativity come together every year," said HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho. "This year's winning ads show that despite an American public that is tired of social and political issues permeating cultural moments, themes of unity and collaboration resonate with Americans. These ads provide a model for how advertisers can engage and speak about corporate social responsibility."
"Somebody" won in large part due to the ad's broad appeal across demographic groups and its particularly strong performance with parents, coming in first with both dads (97.0) and moms (95.0).
Women gave the highest marks to "The Little Farmer" (89.2) while Budweiser's "First Delivery" was the top ad among men (87.7). Pfizer's "Knock Out," a story about a young boxer beating cancer took the top spot among affluent Americans.
Here are the key Super Bowl 2025 Ad trends as per the HarrisX Ad Index:
Corporate and Social Responsibility Ads Dominate the Top 10
Six of the top eight performing ads centered around corporate and social responsibility (CSR) issues. These advertisers proved that even in a polarizing national environment, it is possible to engage in purpose-driven messaging—if the approach unites rather than divides.
The top five spots, including issue ads from the NFL, FCAS, and He Gets US, were closely followed by three other CSR spots. In sixth place with a score of 84.1 was Pfizer's "Knock Out" ad, while the NFL's second ad "FLAG 50" about the League's initiative to make girls flag football a varsity sport across all 50 states came in seventh place (84.0). In eighth place was "Your Attention, Please," a Novartis ad using humor to encourage Americans to get screened for breast cancer (82.1).
Everyday Heroes, not Celebrities, Win the Night
Whether it was LAY's little potato farmer, Pfizer's young boxer, a father calling parenthood his dream job (Google's "Dream Job," score of 81.2), or a 3-year-old running down the street (Dove's "These Legs," score of 77.3), real, human stories resonated with Americans.
"The best-performing ads didn't just entertain — they connected," concluded Nesho. "Super Bowl LIX has set a new precedent: authenticity wins, and brands that embrace this approach will continue to thrive. Whether through shared values, resilience, or humor, some advertisers showed that unity and connection resonate deeply with audiences."
On the other hand, some of the celebrity-studded ads struggled to connect. Just two of the 10 best-performing spots featured celebrities—meanwhile, seven of the 10 lowest-ranking ads had celebrities front and center.
A (Good) Joke or Two Can Do Wonders
Humor, when done right, once again proved to be a winning strategy with ads like "Your Attention, Please" by Novartis (82.1) or Hellmann's "When Sally Met Hellmann's" (78.7). The success of these spots reinforces the idea that even serious topics, such as breast cancer screening, can succeed with a lighthearted touch.
There's a Fine Line Between Clever and Confusing
Creativity resonates, but sometimes an ad can be slightly too clever, leaving viewers confused. Tubi's "Cowboy Head" and Meta's "Hey Meta, Who Eats Art?" ended up at the bottom of the HarrisX Ad Index ranking in part because more than 40% found the two ads confusing.
HarrisX Ad Index Study Methodology
HarrisX tested 72 Super Bowl ads in a nationally representative study with 8,149 American adults as part of its HarrisX Ad Index. Each ad was evaluated individually by approximately 500 respondents across seven metrics: ad believability, clarity, memorability, likelihood to share with friends, comparability with most ads respondents see on TV, ad impact on the advertiser's reputation, and ad-specific call to action. The composite score across the seven metrics is then indexed using proprietary HarrisX methodology that yields a score between 0 and 100.
About HarrisX
HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of global leaders, Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, philanthropic organizations, media and NGOs. It was rated as the most accurate pollster in the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by the Washington Post and American Research Group. HarrisX currently partners on public opinion polling with Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Inc. (STGW).
Originally posted on Forbes TV— Friday, February 7th, 2025
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX poll revealing which team--the Philadelphia Eagles or the Kansas City Chiefs--Americans want to win Super Bowl LIX, and their feelings football players and advertisers possibly weighing in on hot-button political issues.
Washington, D.C., February 7, 2025 — As the nation gears up for Super Bowl Sunday, new HarrisX polling reveals that Americans wantNFL players, team owners, the league itself and Super Bowl advertisers to stay clear of most political, economic, and social issues.
Approximately two in three Americans do not want the players, teams or the league to take public stances on such issues as immigration, government spending, tariffs, abortion, transgender rights, or religion.
Views on NFL players speaking up on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) are more nuanced. While a majority (54%) of Americans do not think DEI is a topic for players to discuss publicly, there are strong demographic differences. Gen Zs (54%) and Millennials (58%) say players should take a stance on DEI, but 59% of Gen X Americans and 67% of Baby Boomers think players should not discuss their views publicly. Support for players speaking up amongWhite Americans is at 40%, compared to 54% among Hispanics and 73% among Black Americans.
"The Super Bowl remains one of the few events that unites Americans. Fans tune in for football—not divisive debates," said Dritan Nesho, CEO and ChiefResearcher at HarrisX. “As the big game nears, it’s clear that Americans want the Super Bowl to remain what it’s always been—a celebration of sports, entertainment, and unity."
Americans also do not think that advertisers should useSuper Bowl ads to take a stance on many hot-button issues. Most say advertisers should not use Super Bowl ads to express their views on religion (73%), politics (72%), transgender rights (70%), abortion (69%), deportations (69%), or DEI(59%).
More Than 200 Million Americans Likely to Watch the Game
According to the NFL, last year’s Super Bowl attracted 202.4 million viewers, becoming the most watched telecast in history. HarrisX data suggests that this year viewership is likely to pass the 200 million threshold once again. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of U.S. adults plan to watch the Super Bowl, slightly up from last year when 61 percent said the same.
The game itself remains the primary draw for viewers (58%),this year’s Halftime Show featuring Kendrick Lamar (16%) and the commercials (14%) follow as secondary motivations. Black Americans, particularly Black men (82%), are among the most likely to tune in. Most viewers will watch from home (74%), with a smaller portion opting for social gatherings or public venues. Most of the fans plan to use FOX for their Super Bowl viewing (54%) while 36% say they will watch the game on one of the streaming platforms (Tubi, NFL+, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV).
Chiefs vs. Eagles: NFL Fans Rooting for Philadelphia
Fifty-four percent of NFL fans who follow the league very closely want the Philadelphia Eagles to win on Sunday, compared to 39% who want Kansas City to clinch their third consecutive trophy.
HarrisX’s data shows that when it comes to who will actually win the game, NFL fans see it as a coin toss – 46.8% expect the Eagles to win versus 46.7% who say the Chiefs will emerge victorious.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online within the United States February 04-06, 2025, among 2,174U.S. adults via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, and income where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 2.1 percentage points.
Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.
About HarrisX & the HarrisX Overnight Poll
HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices inWashington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and AmericanResearch Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S.presidential election.
The HarrisX Overnight Poll runs 365 days a year in the United States as an omnibus survey; for more information email OvernightPoll@Harrisx.com or visit harrisx.com or reach out
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Jan. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the January Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Joe Biden will leave office with his lowest approval rating since July 2022 at 39%, while President-Elect Donald Trump will enter with an approval rating of 53%. Voters continue to prioritize inflation and immigration as top issues and policy priorities for the new administration. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues, media behavior, and foreign affairs. Download key results here.
“Trump is off to a reasonable start – past the 50 percent mark in approval rating – and has some real broad-based support,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “People have high hopes that he will fix the economy, address immigration, and restore American values.”
BIDEN ADMINISTRATION APPROVAL RATINGS HIT LOW; INFLATION AND IMMIGRATION REMAIN TOP PRIORITIES
Biden’s job approval rating sits at 39% – his lowest since July 2022 (Democrat: 73%; Republican: 15%; Independent: 31%). Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating is at 53% (Democrat: 20%; Republican: 88%; Independent: 49%). More than a majority of male, white, suburban, rural, and 25-64 y.o. voters approve.
41% of voters approve of the Democratic Party (-1 from November 2024) – the lowest approval rating since June 2024 and the summer of 2022. 52% of voters approve of the Republican Party (+3).
Inflation and immigration remain the top two issues for voters, with a slight increase in concern over terrorism and national security (+4).
44% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the presidential transition to Trump, while 51% approve of Trump’s handling of the transition.
PERCEPTIONS OF TRUMP POLICIES AND THE NEW ADMINISTRATION SHOW PROMISE
56% of voters believe Trump has been trying to unify rather than divide the country after the election (Democrat: 23%; Republican: 88%; Independent: 55%).
Of Trump’s cabinet picks, more voters favor rather than oppose the appointments of Marco Rubio (+10), Mike Huckabee (+10), and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (+9). Voters are split on Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, and a plurality of voters don’t know over half of Trump’s picks.
Of Trump’s policies, deportations of illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (71%) and ending the Israel-Hamas conflict are the most popular (66%). Withdrawing from NATO (24%) and renaming the Gulf of Mexico (28%) are the least popular.
Voters say their greatest hopes for the new Trump administration are that he will end inflation (66%), improve national security (46%), and revitalize the American economy (41%) and American values (39%).
Voters say top fears are Trump behaving like a dictator (44%), political gridlock (38%), damage to American international reputation and relationships (36%), and damage to federal government and agencies (36%).
VOTERS SUPPORT RECENT SOCIAL MEDIA MOVES INCLUDING TIKTOK BAN AND FACEBOOK COMMUNITY NOTES; CONTINUE TO USE PLATFORMS FOR NEWS
61% of voters approve of the TikTok ban, and 55% of voters say TikTok represents a national security threat to the U.S.
37% of voters are regular users of TikTok (Democrat: 44%; Republican: 36%; Independent: 31%). Voters are split on whether the app has a positive or negative effect on users, with Democrats favoring the app.
53% of voters say they support Mark Zuckerberg in his recent actions to eliminate fact-checking on Facebook and move toward community notes to reduce bias (Democrat: 38%; Republican: 70%; Independent: 51%).
Facebook, Google, and YouTube are the most popular social media platforms among voters for news (Facebook: 48%; Google: 44%; YouTube: 43%).
44% of voters believe X represents opinions on both sides of politics equally, the highest percentage among all major social media platforms. 21% of voters believe Facebook is biased in favor of the political left.
VOTERS BELIEVE AI SHOULD BE REGULATED BUT SAY IT IS TOO LATE
A plurality of voters (46%) believe it is too late to stop or regulate AI, though 61% agree there should be some type of regulation akin to those on critical industries like healthcare, finance, or aviation.
Voters cite concerns of AI becoming too dangerous (31%) and being weaponized (28%) as top reasons for regulation.
52% of voters, however, cite large tech corporation control over AI as the top reason to avoid regulating AI.
PERCEPTIONS ON AUTHORITIES’ RESPONSES TO LOS ANGELES FIRES SPLIT ALONG PARTISAN LINES
54% of voters say the L.A. fires were an event authorities could have been prepared for (Democrat: 38%; Republican: 70%; Independent: 54%).
Voters were split over whether city, state, and federal governments responded to the fires adequately. The majority of Democrats said the responses were appropriate, while the majority of Republicans said they were inadequate.
57% of voters believe California Governor Gavin Newsom is guilty of mismanaging resources and making the fires worse, and 60% of voters believe the same of Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.
VOTERS SUPPORT CEASEFIRE DEAL IN ISRAEL-HAMAS CONFLICT, CREDITING TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
82% of voters support the ceasefire deal, especially Democrats (87%) and voters over 55 years of age (88%).
57% of voters credit the incoming Trump administration with the deal over negotiation efforts from Biden, including a majority of Republicans (84%) and Independents (60%).
Support for Israel over Hamas in the conflict remains high with 79% of voters supporting Israel.
The January Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on January 15-16, 2025, among 2,650 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Fewer than half expect the global economy, inflation or geopolitical conflicts to improve in 2025
Stagwell Chairman and CEO Mark Penn to reveal additional results of the study on stage at the World Economic Forum 2025
NEW YORK, Jan. 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Before leaders gather at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos next week, Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today unveiled the results of a survey of CEOs and Board Directors regarding their outlook on critical topics shaping the future including economic conditions, artificial intelligence (AI), and the evolving relationship between CEOs and Board Directors and the news media.
At Stagwell, we believe a thriving news industry is not only the foundation of a healthy democracy, but also a critical platform for marketers and advertisers. However, recent discourse around brand safety – the effort of protecting a brand's reputation by controlling advertisement proximity to certain content – has disproportionately hurt the news industry, as advertisers shy away from news due to misconceptions and an abundance of caution. Stagwell launched the Future of News Initiative with the goal of reinvigorating the relationship between news and marketing through research, events and informed discussion around brand safety.
This latest study, fielded among more than 1,000 CEOs and Board Directors across 14 countries, and conducted by Stagwell's HarrisX research consultancy, underscores that business leaders overwhelmingly value the importance of news media as a powerful advertising tool.
CEOs and Board Directors Are Strong Proponents of News Media
90% of CEOs and Board Directors follow the news closely, reading an average of six articles per day.
A strong majority say news media raises awareness of critical issues (83%), can positively influence society (81%), and is critical to democracy (79%).
The executives view advertising in news media as a strategic tool, with 86% saying companies should advertise on news media and 87% calling it a sound investment to reach and influence stakeholders.
75% say their companies should advertise in news more, compared to just 7% who want to scale back their advertisement in news.
CEOs and Board Directors Think Brand Safety Protocols Are Overapplied
84% of CEOs and Board Directors say their organizations apply brand safety protocols, but 57% think it is a mistake to apply brand safety across all news outlets and types of news content.
69% say brand safety protocols are overapplied to the point of hurting media outlets and advertisers.
75% of executives of large companies in particular believe brand safety has been overapplied.
Tempered Expectations for 2025
42% of CEOs and Board Directors expect the global economy to improve in 2025, while 35% predict stagnation and 23% anticipate a decline.
36% believe inflation will ease, but 35% foresee no change and 29% expect worsening.
Only 33% foresee improvement of geopolitical and military conflicts this year, with 41% expecting no change and 26% predicting escalation.
Throughout WEF next week, Stagwell will host programming laddering back to its Future of News initiative including a News x Democracy panel with AG Sulzberger, Chairman and Publisher at The New York Times, and Mark Penn, Chairman and CEO of Stagwell. Stagwell will also host a Cocktails and Conversation event in partnership with The Washington Post to celebrate a new year of collaboration and innovation in shaping the future of news.
Later this month, Stagwell will also host an inaugural Publisher Showcase with its coalition of publisher partners at Stagwell's headquarters in One World Trade Center. For more information about the initiative and to get involved, visit https://www.stagwellglobal.com/future-of-news/.
Methodology This study was conducted with 1,028 CEOs and Board Directors in the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand. The executives interviewed for the study lead publicly traded, privately-owned companies and public sector organizations across industries. The online interviews were conducted by HarrisX from December 30, 2024 to January 14, 2025.
About Stagwell Stagwell is the challenger holding company built to transform marketing. We deliver scaled creative performance for the world's most ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with leading-edge technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. Led by entrepreneurs, our specialists in 35+ countries are unified under a single purpose: to drive effectiveness and improve business results for our clients. Join us at www.stagwellglobal.com.
About HarrisX HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies and philanthropic organizations, public policy institutions, global leaders, media and NGOs. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Global (STGW). Learn more at www.harrisx.com.
General public wants tech CEOs to speak out on workplace and economic issues, but say the industry should stay clear of political and social issues
Americans think AI will have a negative impact on jobs, but few expect to be impacted directly
NEW YORK, Jan. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- As the United States enters a new administration next week, Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) and HarrisX released a new nationwide poll showing the tech sector is entering 2025 with one of the strongest reputations across industries. The study, released during the annual CES conference, and made available online today, reveals four in five (81%) Americans view the industry favorably, placing tech on par with the manufacturing sector (80%) and far ahead of many other industries, including healthcare (65%), oil and gas (60%), pharmaceutical (52%) and news media (51%).
Nearly four in five (79%) U.S. adults say tech has a positive economic impact and 57% expect the industry to be a major economic driver over the next five years. For comparison, approximately just one in three Americans think the real estate (35%) and auto (32%) industries will play a major role in the U.S. economy.
However, while a majority of Americans (55%) want the leaders of technology companies to speak up on issues affecting industry and society, sixty percent say these leaders mostly get it wrong when they speak up. Respondents indicated that they want tech leaders to focus more on workplace and governance issues and less on divisive social and political themes.
What Do Americans Want Technology Leaders to Comment on?
Workplace and economic issues appear to be the safest topics for tech leaders to take a stance on. While a strong majority say tech CEOs should speak up on issues such as paid family leave (68%), minimum wage (66%) or the environment (65%), significantly fewer believe they should take a public stance on social and political issues such as transgender rights (38%), abortion (39%) or elections (41%).
"For three decades the technology sector has defined the 'new economy' and modern opportunities, in the process building a very strong reputation," said Dritan Nesho, CEO of technology research firm HarrisX. "As it now embarks to once again reshape the global labor and economic landscape via A.I., Web3, and other novelties, the way tech CEOs navigate and address the impact of their innovations, and the regulations that will surely follow, will determine how the industry is perceived and treated for decades to come."
The heads of Stagwell's Risk and Reputation practice added their analysis on the data during a roundtable at CES.
Zac Moffatt, the CEO of Targeted Victory and the Republican co-Chair noted that "the landscape of public discourse has shifted with the 2024 presidential election, and companies need to quickly rewrite the playbook of how to engage with both the public and government over the next several years."
Nevertheless, public sensitivities on several key themes such as the environment, human rights, income inequality, and DE&I remain strong, added Doug Thornell, CEO of SKDK, and the Democratic co-Chair, "The risk of dismissing these themes is high. The years ahead require both balance and courage."
The Stagwell/HarrisX poll, which was conducted online January 3-6, 2024 with 1,498 registered voters, also shows that 67% of voters want tech companies to work with the incoming Trump administration. Nearly as many (58%) also believe the Trump presidency will provide a boost for the technology industry. Just 27% think tech companies will be worse off under President-elect Donald Trump.
The study also shows that as the tech industry and financial investors are doubling down on AI, Americans are less certain about its economic impact. While 60% think AI will replace more jobs than create new ones, just 30% of Americans believe AI will decrease their personal earnings in the future.
The public uncertainty towards AI is also reflected by the fact that voters are evenly divided on the approach they think the U.S. government should take in regulating the new technology. Fifty-three percent say the government should first monitor the development and implementation of AI versus 47% who say it's better to start regulating AI right away.
In the post-election landscape, Stagwell and HarrisX are committed to helping businesses navigate the political crosshairs. For more information on how Stagwell's Risk and Reputation Unit can help navigate the political minefield, visit https://www.stagwellglobal.com/risk-reputation-unit/.
Survey Methodology The survey was conducted online within the United States January 3-6, 2025 among 1,498 registered voters in the United States by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is +/-2.5 percentage points. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. The survey sample was weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, and region where necessary to align it with the actual proportions in the population.
About HarrisX HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies and philanthropic organizations, public policy institutions, global leaders, media and NGOs. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Global (STGW). Learn more at www.harrisx.com.
About Stagwell Stagwell is the challenger holding company built to transform marketing. We deliver scaled creative performance for the world's most ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with leading-edge technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. Led by entrepreneurs, our specialists in 35+ countries are unified under a single purpose: to drive effectiveness and improve business results for our clients. Join us at www.stagwellglobal.com.
Ragan Communications and leading research firm HarrisX, a Stagwell Group company (STGW), are releasing new 2024 data on modern-day corporate communications, asking 437 CEOs and other comms leaders this year on how they view each other's roles and responsibilities, what they value most, and their outlook on pressing industry risks to the communications function including artificial intelligence, corporate activism and brand safety
Key Findings include:
Communications leaders are embracing AI even as most express heightened concerns about AI's impact on misinformation, corporate reputation, and jobs
4 in 5 communications leaders have a favorable view of AI.
Nearly as many (71%) say AI is having a positive impact on communications processes and output, versus just 15% who say its impact is negative.
Writing (52%), brainstorming ideas (50%), editing (43%) and transcribing (41%) are the top ways AI is being utilized in communications.
Comms leaders want AI to play a bigger role in their organizations, with 50% of all leaders, including 66% in large organizations, saying AI should play a big role. At the moment, just 38% say the technology is playing a big role in their organization.
But corporate leaders are split on AI's impact on jobs: CEOs and those in medium or large organizations are more optimistic about the effect on job creation, while non-CEO leaders and those in small organizations worry about AI replacing jobs.
Leaders in small organizations are less favorable of AI and more hesitant to say it currently plays – or should play – a role in their processes going forward.
Concern over AI-driven misinformation (72%) and impact of this misinformation on an organization's reputation (55%) is high. Sixty-eight percent of communications leaders believe AI will amplify rather than limit misinformation on platforms and websites operated by Big Tech.
Trust in professional communicators to navigate corporate narratives and related challenges is on the rise, while trust in CEOs leading communications has lagged
Chief Communications Officers are the most trusted group to manage corporate reputation and communications among all C-suite leaders.
Trust in CEOs communicating effectively on DE&I has dropped below 50% after ranking highly in prior years, while trust in CEOs leading employee communications has increased since last year.
DE&I and ESG remain important elements in communications but DE&I has seen a dip in importance.
The importance of DE&I has dipped compared to 2022, particularly in internal comms, when 93% stressed the importance of DE&I.
Most CEOs still say DE&I is important for external (89%) and internal (86%) communications.
CEOs view ESG similarly important for external (88%) and internal (85%) communications.
Brand Safety measures have become commonplace, but many say they are overapplied.
58% of CEOs say Brand Safety has been overapplied to the point of hurting media outlets and advertisers vs. 42% who say it is underapplied; opinion flips among non-CEO communications leaders.
"These insights inform how and where communicators can harness their skills to lead through time of great change and uncertainty," said Diane Schwartz, CEO of Ragan Communications, the leading media brand for communicators and the producer of Communications Week. "It's an exciting time to be a communicator and a critical inflection point for communications to lead the way as guardians of reputation."
"Corporate leaders are facing fast-changing technology, social, and business norms all at once, requiring them to be prepared ahead of when crises and opportunities land," noted Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX. "HarrisX and Ragan continue to study in-depth how senior decision-makers perceive and are reacting to this shifting landscape, what they are doing to adjust both business models and corporate narratives, and the critical importance they see in a well-functioning, strategic communications functions within their organization."
The data was initially unveiled in Austin during Ragan's Future of Communications Conference, the signature event of Communications Week, Nov. 15-17. Under the theme "All Together Now," the event zeroed in on how we can celebrate and accelerate the crucial role of the communicator as a trusted advisor, innovator and convener within organizations.
About Ragan Communications For nearly 55 years, Ragan Communications has been delivering trusted news, training and intelligence for internal and external communicators, marketers, HR professionals and business executives via its conferences, webinars, training, awards, subscriptions and membership divisions. Its daily news sites—PRDaily.com and Ragan.com—are read by more than 600,000 internal and external communicators monthly. Its Communications Leadership Council is one of the fastest-growing membership groups for communications executives. Visit www.ragan.com.
About HarrisX HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of global leaders, Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, philanthropic organizations, media and NGOs. It was rated as the most accurate pollster is the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by the Washington Post and American Research Group. HarrisX currently partners on public opinion polling with Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Inc. (STGW).
Most U.S. entertainment and media decision makers are familiar with various kinds of artificial intelligence technologies and using them inside their organization, but they’re the most familiar with generative AI.
Perhaps unsurprisingly in throes of the hype cycle, generative AI has the greatest familiarity (88%) and adoption among entertainment decision makers compared with other forms of AI. Nearly half (49%) indicated gen AI was already being used in their organization, according to an August 2024 survey of U.S. business decision makers...
80% OF VOTERS PRIORITIZE CANDIDATES' POSITION ON ISSUES OVER PERSONAL QUALITIES IN CASTING THEIR VOTE
71% OF VOTERS SAY ELON MUSK'S ENDORSEMENT HAD THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON THE ELECTION
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Nov. 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The poll shows that Trump won over Harris by 2 points, driving the core issues of inflation and immigration most salient to the majority of Americans. Republicans closed in on the Democratic advantage of early and mail-in voting. Voters primarily relied on TV news channels for election coverage, followed by social media, and are split on whether coverage was biased. Looking ahead to the new administration, voters are divided on perceptions of Trump but want him to prioritize tackling inflation.
"This was an election about issues, and the economy and immigration played the biggest roles. Trump won on a clear message of middle- and working-class economics," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "But while he's won over people up to 54% and Republicans are supportive of his policies, he has to be careful in over-projecting his mandate – underneath is still a division of the election that has not yet resolved itself."
TRUMP +2 ON HARRIS IN FINAL POLLING; +4 AMONG INDEPENDENTS
50% of voters say they voted for Trump, including 92% of Republicans and 49% of Independents; while 48% of voters say they voted for Harris, including 90% of Democrats and 45% of Independents.
82% of voters say they voted (Democrat: 86%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 70%). Non-voters cited lack of motivation, feeling like their vote didn't matter, and dislike of the candidates as top reasons they did not vote.
37% of voters voted in-person on Election Day, 32% voted in-person before Election Day, and 31% voted by mail. 56% of the electorate say they made up their mind on who they were voting for before September. 34% of Democrats, 28% of Republicans, and 32% of Independents voted by mail.
11% of the 2024 electorate were first-time voters. 31% of first-time voters decided who they were voting for before September, 24% decided the week of the election, and 20% decided on Election Day.
74% of voters voted on down-ballot races (House of Representatives: 62%; U.S. Senate: 52%; Governor: 34%).
VOTERS MOTIVATED BY ISSUES AND CHANGE
80% of voters say the candidate's position on issues was the most important factor when it came to casting their vote compared to personal qualities (Harris: 71%; Trump: 90%; Democrat: 76%; Republican: 87%; Independent: 78%;).
The majority of voters said their response to the most important issue facing the country was a main reason for their candidate choice. Of those who said immigration was the most important issue facing the country, 87% said it was one of the main reasons, if not the main reason for their vote (abortion: 79%; inflation: 77%; climate change: 66%). 29% of voters said inflation was the main reason for their vote, 28% pointed to immigration, and 26% pointed to abortion.
76% of voters say they voted for change rather than continuity in how the country is managed (Harris: 60%; Trump: 91%; Democrat: 62%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 78%).
Of key events from the presidential campaign, voters say the Trump vs. Harris debate (36%), Trump surviving the assassination attempt (32%), and Trump declaring no tax on tips (32%) made them more likely to vote for Trump.
TRUMP AND GOP APPROVAL RATING REFLECT ELECTION RESULTS AND DISCONTENT WITH DIRECTION OF COUNTRY, INFLATION, AND IMMIGRATION
Trump's approval rating as president-elect is at 54%, 12 points higher than Biden's as president, including 91% of Republicans and 49% of Independents. The majority of male, 18-54 year old, white, Hispanic, urban, and rural voters approve of Trump.
49% of voters approve of the Republican Party's job (+3 from October), while 44% approve of that of the Democratic Party (-3 from October).
27% of voters say the country is on the right track, down 4 percentage points from October (Democrat: 29%; Republican: 32%; Independent: 17%).
Inflation (45%) and immigration (16%) continue to be the most important issues to voters personally, with inflation a concern across party lines, immigration of more concern for Republicans (28%), and abortion (18%) and climate change (13%) more of a concern for Democrats.
PERCEPTIONS OF TRUMP STILL DIVIDED FOLLOWING THE ELECTION
54% of voters say Trump has been trying to unify rather than divide the country since the election (Democrat: 24%; Republican: 89%; Independent: 50%).
52% of voters believe Trump is a threat to democracy (Democrat: 81%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 45%). 53% say Trump should continue to be tried on criminal charges (Democrat: 87%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 55%).
68% of voters say their greatest hope for the new Trump administration is to end inflation and price increases (Democrat: 57%; Republican: 81%; Independent: 68%), followed by the revitalization of the American economy (43%) and American values (42%).
46% of voters say their greatest fear is Trump behaving like a dictator (Democrat: 74%; Republican: 16%; Independent: 49%). Other top fears among Democrats are irreparable damage to the U.S. government and agencies (56%) and the Trump administration moving too far to the right (55%). The greatest fear among Republicans is massive protests by the left (47%).
Of Trump's cabinet appointments, more voters favor rather than oppose Susie Wiles (+11), Mike Huckabee (+6), Vivek Ramaswamy (+5), and Marco Rubio (+3). Voters are split on Elon Musk (+1) and oppose Matt Gaetz (-8).
VOTERS FOLLOWED ELECTION NEWS CLOSELY, RELYING ON TV AND SOCIAL MEDIA; BELIEVE MUSK HAD BIGGEST IMPACT
81% of voters say they followed the presidential election somewhat or very closely.
46% of voters say they used TV news channels (Democrat: 45%; Republican: 49%; Independent: 42%), while 23% used social media platforms (Democrat: 26%; Republican: 22%; Independent: 20%) and 10% relied on news outlet websites.
ABC News (36%) and Fox TV News (33%) were the most popular TV channels for election coverage, while Facebook (43%), Google (39%), and YouTube (39%) were the most popular social media platforms for news.
51% of voters say they felt election news was fair while 49% believe it was biased. Among those who felt news was biased, 57% say it was biased against Trump and Republicans (Democrat: 23%; Republicans: 87%; Independent: 51%).
60% of voters say journalists today are mostly practicing advocacy as opposed to unbiased journalism.
Elon Musk (65%), Taylor Swift (63%), and Oprah Winfrey (54%) were the most known endorsements heading into the election. 71% believe Musk's endorsement had the biggest impact on the election (Joe Rogan: 43%; Taylor Swift: 36%).
42% of voters say Elon Musk's endorsement had some or significant impact on their vote (Democrat: 32%; Republican: 55%; Independent: 31%), and 37% say the same about Joe Rogan (Democrat: 31%; Republican: 47%; Independent: 28%).
The November Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on November 13-14, 2024, among 1,732 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
The Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll is a monthly research collaboration between the Harvard Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll (PRNewsfoto/Stagwell Inc.)
HarrisX Accurately Calls Five of Seven Presidential Battleground States and Outperforms the Polling Industry in the 2024 U.S. Elections
Preliminary results from 2024 U.S. presidential election affirms HarrisX as one of the most accurate U.S. pollsters
HarrisX battleground polling correctly called 5 out of 7 states, on average within 1.6 percentage points from the actual results in these states
HarrisX national polling called a close race for Donald Trump at 49%-49% among likely voters and 49%-48% among all registered voters
Following two highly accurate presidential election cycles, HarrisX unveils its interactive Election & Politics Hub, furthering the company's commitment to polling critical elections and events with accuracy
WASHINGTON, Nov. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- HarrisX - a Stagwell Inc. (STGW) company, named the most accurate pollster in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, continued its track record of accurate polling in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
HarrisX polling projected the correct winner in five out of seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. HarrisX final polling data, on average, came within 1.6 percentage points of the actual results across the five states, under the margin of error and outperforming the 538 Polling Industry Average. The odds ratio accuracy for each of these states was above 0.95 and outperformed the industry average (see tables below for a full explanation of this analysis of polls).
Further, HarrisX national polling demonstrated significant accuracy across its various horserace permutations: a 49%-49% tie among likely voters (with an odds ratio of 0.96) and 49%-48% among registered voters (with a near perfect odds ratio of 0.98).
This achievement reaffirms the commitment of HarrisX to provide reliable, data-driven insights that the public and media can trust in the United States and around the globe.
"Our accuracy is our currency. HarrisX is therefore immensely proud to have called two back-to-back United States presidential elections correctly, ranking among the top pollsters in the country" said Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX. Nesho added: "This accuracy is increasingly important with A.I. becoming the dominant interface between those seeking information and the data sources made available to them."
Outperforming the Polling Industry in 2024
Prior to the election, the FiveThirtyEight election model predicted the average polling error to be 3.8 percentage points across the seven battleground states. HarrisX polling came within 2.2 percentage points of the actual results across the seven states and within 1.6 percentage points across the five states the polling company called correctly for Donald Trump. HarrisX outperformed both the predicted polling error and the aggregated final polling averages as published by FiveThirtyEight.
HarrisX also outperformed the polling industry in the national polling, showing the two candidates tied at 49 percent each among likely voters and Trump leading at 49%-48% among all registered voters. The average of national polls showed Vice President Harris winning the national vote by 1.2 percentage points.
Unveiling the HarrisX Elections & Politics Hub and Ongoing Tracking for US Elections
To enhance the public's understanding of the 2024 election landscape and beyond, HarrisX has unveiled its Elections & Politics Hub, an interactive platform featuring real-time tracking, data analysis, and insights.
This Election Hub allows users to monitor political, policy, advocacy and election developments as they unfold, with clear visuals, state-by-state breakdowns, and live updates. The HarrisX Elections & Politics hub is powered by the HarrisX Overnight Poll, which runs nightly 365 days a year, and allows clients to ask their own questions and conduct surveys alongside the findings of the Elections & Politics Hub.
A Commitment to Methodological Rigor Across Online, Phone, and In-Person Polling
HarrisX leverages best-in-class research methods to administer high-quality polling and ensure a representative sample of voters across online, phone, and in-person for our clients.
Our Elections & Politics Hub U.S. respondents are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods. Results are then weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, political party, education, income, and previous vote choice where necessary to align with actual proportions amongst the population of Registered Voters within each state.
HarrisX's methodological rigor is showcased not only through these Election & Politics Hub results, but also through the firm's ongoing work with the Harvard CAPS/ Harris poll, released monthly with The Hill; the bi-monthly HarrisX/Forbes poll which looks at the intersection of politics, society, and business; its recent in-person exit polling of over 12,000 voters in the 2024 parliamentary election in the country of Georgia with Mtavari Channel; and its 2024 in-person election polling in the Dominican Republic with Noticias SIM.
HarrisX's pre-election polling in the Dominican Republic, conducted as Enquestas Mark Penn with Noticias SIM, called the race on the head with 57% for Luis Abinader, who was re-lected president. HarrisX's comparative statistical analysis of its exit poll in Georgia and the official election results, concluded that the final results as published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Georgia are "statistically impossible". The HarrisX findings have been cited by international media and the President of Georgia as potential evidence of voting irregularities in the disputed election outcome.
For more information on HarrisX's election coverage and future initiatives, visit elections.harrisx.com.
About HarrisX
HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of global leaders, Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, philanthropic organizations, media and NGOs. It was rated as the most accurate pollster is the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by the Washington Post and American Research Group. HarrisX currently partners on public opinion polling with Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Inc. (STGW).
For more election news and analysis visit: Elections.harrisx.com
In Q2 2024, strong QoQ growth in household penetration among 55+ households lifted the average for all households. The 55+ age cohort among households remains the least likely age group to subscribe to a streaming service by far but that situation is changing. This age group is the strongest avenue of potential growth for the streaming industry and the last bastion of loyalty for the Pay TV industry. A focus on appropriate content and experience for each age sub-group with consideration for their stage of life, life-style, needs and concerns can extend the growth streak into the rest of 2024.
Presented at CTAM Think, Nov. 7, 2024 by HarrisX.
A recent Wall Street Journal article says it all. The title is “We’re Not Dead Yet’. Baby Boomers’ Good Times Drive the Economy, July 6, 2024. The WSJ article talks about cities trying to attract young families and hip remote workers to rejuvenate their communities. But in fact, it was boomers moving into a planned community in TX who revived the local economy by driving population growth, indulging in sky-diving, concerts, classic cars and ‘having more fun than our daughter.’
It isn’t just cities - content and advertising are generally aimed at younger demographics. Older protagonists take centerstage very rarely in TV shows - The Golden Girls comes to mind, then 30 years later the ‘The Golden Bachelor” last year on Netflix. Apparently, entering one’s golden years can turn you invisible to content providers and advertisers. This situation can be rectified and the rejuvenation powers of the golden ages unleashed for further growth in streaming household penetration.
Is the golden age of streaming over?
It’s not just American seniors who are golden. The past few years have ushered in a golden era of streaming for all households with rising numbers of subscribers and services. But household penetration has stagnated at under 85% in recent times, despite the uptick in Q2 2024. One would assume this rate of household penetration is high enough and that the golden age of growth in streaming is over.
Most households that remain untapped by streaming are 56+
At just under 85% household penetration, the overall untapped market of households who do not stream is at 15% of all households, down from 16% in Q1 2024. But digging deeper, we see that untapped households with decision makers aged 55 and below are < 10%. Compare that to a whopping 25% of households with 56+ decision makers who do not subscribe to a streaming service and you can see where we’re going with this. It is also among these households that streaming made the biggest inroads between Q1 and Q2 2024, with a 2pt drop from 27%, a change that we do not see among the other age groups.
If we factor in the dominant share of household decision makers above the age of 56, we see that 80% of untapped households today are 56+. These household decision makers are directing or influencing purchasing decisions not just for themselves but for their children, grand-children and older parents. The 37-55 age cohort is next with 15%, with the younger age groups barely registering.
If expanding the streaming market is still the objective, better to re-focus attention on the older age cohorts and target the folks in charge of households.
Even within the huge 55+ age cohort, there are huge differences in attitudes to streaming and contribution to QoQ growth
Within the 65+ age group, it’s the 65-74 age group that contributed a huge 4pt jump in household penetration between Q1 and Q2 2024, while the 75+ age group remains the furthest behind. Clearly, a deeper dive into each of these sub-groups will reveal a lot more about their needs, concerns and potential for further growth.
The 55+ age groups remain the last and most loyal bastions of Pay TV despite declines
What may be driving these huge differences in streaming adoption among the various sub-groups within 56+? One of the factors is of course their use and subscription of Pay TV which remains much higher than younger age cohorts.
Even as the older age groups continue to cut the cord, the 55 – 64 age group TV penetration actually rose between Q1 and Q2 2024. Once again, it proves that each age group brings its own needs, attitudes and trajectory to both the streaming and Pay TV markets.
The 56+ age group can make ideal customers
Once signed up, they are more loyal to their providers and more can afford higher prices.About44% of households with $100K income or higher are in the age group of 56+ compared with 17% of 25–36-year-olds and even fewer 18-24 year olds.
It’s not all about Gen Z: the major untapped opportunity in streaming (or Pay TV or even growth in any kind of content offer) lies in the 56+ year old cohort, as almost everyone below the age of 55 is already tapped. Moreover, this age cohort is by far most likely to make household subscription and spending decisions.
Decisions about streaming services are also connected to other technology and brand purchase decisions such as mobile devices, internet/mobile services, and consumer electronics. HarrisX has the insights and research that can make sure you are the first player to capture this valuable target.
Questions that HarrisX can answer -
What are the content needs of these older households? How much time do they spend watching TV or other video content? What about social media apps? How many streaming services do they subscribe to vs younger generations? What genres are popular amongst them?
Are they likely to keep cutting their Pay TV subscription in favor of streaming? Or are they likely to keep both?
Is their Streaming/ TV mix a function of their tech savviness? Is this something HarrisX can help me forecast?
Originally posted on Nov 6, 2024, 06:09pm EST by Forbes.com
On “Forbes Newsroom,” HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho broke down the early conclusions he has made gauging demographic voting shifts that spelled a comfortable Electoral College and popular vote victory for President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
The first key to Trump’s defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris was his ability to reassemble his support from 2020. “Trump, by and large, was able to pull his coalition forward and get it out to come and vote. Last time around, he won about 75 million votes, and this time around he's at about 72 million and counting. So he didn't really lose a lot of votes from his coalition.”
Harris, conversely, fatally underperformed her Democratic nominee predecessor, President Joe Biden. “Biden won over 80 million votes in 2020. And where the count stands right now, Harris has had less than 13 million less votes than Biden had last time around. She's at around 67 million votes.”
Trump’s strength in overperforming among regions and groups he’d won before was coupled by inroads with traditionally largely Democratic-voting groups, particularly Hispanic voters. “Trump performed very well with Hispanics in the mid-40s, and the count is still growing. So when it's all said and done, he might actually have overperformed George Bush's 45% with Hispanics from 2004,” Nesho said, pointing out that Trump won an outright majority of Hispanic men.
Nesho also pointed to early data about the gender breakdown, including an exit poll that showed Trump improve his performance with men and Harris performing worse than Biden with women. “It also seems like in the battle of the genders, men came out to vote for Trump, at least in one of the exit polls, more convincingly. And that mattered, especially when it comes to younger male voters.”
HarrisX Releases Final National and Battleground State Polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election; Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin Voters Likely to Decide the Outcome
Polling suggests a high turnout election with over 155 million Americans expected to cast vote in the 2024 election
Donald Trump neutralizes Kamala Harris’s early voter advantage in the final poll, tying the national race 49 to 49 percent
Battleground state polling shows Harris winning Pennsylvania while Trump is poised to win Arizona, Georgia and Nevada
Race is statistically tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, with Michigan leaning towards Harris and North Carolina and Wisconsin towards Trump
Washington D.C. November 5, 2024 – HarrisX, a leading U.S.-based public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company, today released its final set of polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election on the HarrisX Elections Hub (elections.harrisx.com).
The final national and battleground surveys were conducted November 4-5, 2024 with 1,325 national likely voters, and November 3-5, 2024 with 11,172 likely voters across the seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Final HarrisX polling shows former president Donald J. Trump and Vice President tied nationally at 49 percent each. Strong support for Trump among the election day voters have effectively erased the lead that Harris has held with those who voted early.
The election is heading to a close finish in the Electoral College, with Trump favored to win 252 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 245, with Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin accounting for the remaining 41 Electoral College votes. In these three battleground states, the two candidates are statistically tied, with less than 1 percent difference. In this scenario, both Harris and Trump would need to win at least two of the three states to cross the 270 threshold and win the presidency.
“The election comes down to voter turnout today,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX. “Trump has closed strong and neutralized Harris’s early voter advantage nationally, while Harris has made several Trump-friendly battleground states a toss-up. With Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin statistically tied, 41Electoral College votes are in play giving both candidates several paths to victory. Trump appears to hold a slight edge, but his supporters have to show up today in strong numbers for him to return to the White House.”
The full findings can be found at the newly-unveiled HarrisX Elections Hub at elections.harrisx.com.
Survey Methodology
Survey Fielding Dates Sample Size for Reported Data (Likely Voters) Margin of Error
National Nov. 4-5 1,325 +/- 2.7%
All Battleground States Nov. 3-5 11,172 +/- 0.9%
Arizona 1,468 +/- 2.6%
Georgia 1,659 +/- 2.4%
Michigan 1,668 +/- 2.4%
Nevada 1,125 +/- 2.9%
North Carolina 1,600 +/- 2.5%
Pennsylvania 2,103 +/- 2.1%
Wisconsin 1,549 +/- 2.5%
The final HarrisX 2024 U.S. Presidential election polling was conducted in two parts:
Nationally: The national survey was administered online within the United States from November 4- November 5 among 1,511 registered voters and 1,325 likely voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment
sampling. Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology, early voter percentage, and area type where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points for registered voters and +/-2.7 percentage points for likely voters.
Battleground States: The states survey was administered online by HarrisX among 13,054 registered voters from November 3-5, 2024 across 7 battleground states in the US. Respondents were recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.
Sample size and sampling margin of error for Registered Voters in each state are as follows: Arizona (N: 1697, MoE: +/- 2.4%), Georgia (N: 1976, MoE: +/- 2.2%), Michigan (N: 1930, MoE: +/- 2.2%), Nevada (N: 1313, MoE: +/- 2.7%), North Carolina (N: 1895, MoE: +/- 2.3%), Pennsylvania (N: 2451, MoE: +/- 2%), Wisconsin (N: 1792, MoE: +/- 2.3%.)
Results were weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, political party, education, income, and previous vote choice where necessary to align with actual proportions amongst the population of Registered Voters within each state. The survey then filters and reports final results for Likely Voters to highlight those who definitely (or already voted), and those very likely to do so.
About HarrisX
HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies and philanthropic organizations, public policy institutions, global leaders, media and NGOs. It was rated as the most accurate pollster is the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by the Washington Post and American Research Group. HarrisX currently partners on public opinion polling with Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Inc. (STGW).
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a pre-Election Day HarrisX/Forbes poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris edging former President Trump by one point.
Article originally posted by Forbes on Nov. 4, 2024 01:51pm EST by Sara Dorn
Topline
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are statistically tied in the final Forbes/HarrisX pre-election survey, with Harris showing a razor-thin one-point lead—the latest poll to show there’s no clear leader just a day before the election.
Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters—within the one-point margin of error—in a four-way race with third-party candidates Jill Stein and Cornel West on the ballot, with 2% backing West and 1% backing Stein (the results include those who have already voted, and account for respondents who are undecided but leaning toward one candidate).
Harris leads Trump 51%-49% in a two-way race when the poll includes respondents who are undecided but leaning toward one candidate, and she’s ahead 49%-47%, in a two-way race among voters who have settled on a candidate, with 4% undecided.
Among those who have already voted, 57% cast their ballots for Harris and 40% voted for Trump, according to the survey—reflecting typical partisan voting trends as more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote early.
Harris was up 49%-48% in the previous Forbes/HarrisX poll released Thursday and Trump led 49%-48% in the groups’ Oct. 22 poll in a four-way contest.
Forbes/HarrisX surveyed 4,520 registered voters online between Oct. 30 and Nov. 1.
Crucial Quote
“The race will come down to turnout tomorrow, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, told Forbes in an email. “Trump has historically outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020 due to his ability to get low propensity voters to show up and win the voters on the fence who make up their mind at the last minute. If he does that again, he'll be able to close the early vote advantage that Harris has accumulated.”
What To Watch For
Nesho recommends watching for Trump’s turnout and the gender gap. Harris has a 10-point lead with women in the HarrisX survey, while Trump has a 10-point lead with men.
Big Number
49%. That’s the share of voters in the seven swing states who said they’ll vote for Harris in a four-way race, compared to 48% who said they’d back Trump (the figures include so-called “leaners” and those who have already voted).
Key Background
The survey is the latest to show a near-tie less than a day before the election. Harris leads Trump by a slim 1.1 points in Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, while Trump is narrowly ahead in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, and Harris leads in Wisconsin, and Michigan.
The results of last week's election in Georgia cannot be explained, two US pollsters commissioned to carry out exit polls for opposition TV channels have said.
The reports by HarrisX and Edison Research came in the wake of widespread violations highlighted by election monitors in last Saturday's vote in the South Caucasus state.
The assessments by Edison Research and HarrisX will bolster the case made by opposition parties and the Georgian president, who have condemned the vote as rigged and stolen.
But the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party insists the election was free and fair, although it acknowledges irregularities in "just a couple" of polling stations.
Edison Research said the 13-point difference between its own estimate and the 54% majority given to GD could not be explained by normal statistical margins and "suggests local-level manipulation of the vote".
A similar assessment from HarrisX revealed a discrepancy of more than 8% of votes "pointing to possible voting irregularities".
The election commission, which certified the official results, said it had come under "unfounded attack".
Opposition parties had billed the election as a choice between Europe and neighbouring Russia. President Salome Zourabichvili alleges the election was stolen as part of a "Russian special operation".
The EU, US and Nato have called for a transparent inquiry into widespread examples of irregularities.
Exit polls conducted by HarrisX and Edison Research on Saturday both gave the four opposition parties victory, well ahead of GD, which they said polled up to 42% of the vote.
In Marneuli, one of the towns where Georgian Dream (GD) conceded violations had taken place, two people have been arrested on suspicion of ballot-stuffing, including the town's deputy council leader.
HarrisX said that according to the election commission, GD won 80% of the vote in the town, whereas the pollster's own exit poll put the figure at 40%.
Edison said it had found deviation from expected results was most pronounced in rural areas, which were likely to have had the "most significant vote manipulation at the polling location level”.
The main opposition groups have called for further protests next Monday, after an initial demonstration attracted tens of thousands of people outside parliament on the main Rustaveli Avenue earlier this week.
Georgian observers have highlighted numerous violations in voting, including vote-buying, ballot-stuffing and voters' IDs being confiscated ahead of the election.
But the election commission has rejected allegations of bias and denied Zourabichvili's allegations of so-called carousel voting in Georgia's new electronic voting system, insisting it is impossible to vote more than once.
Public prosecutors summoned the president for questioning this week to prove her allegations of fraud, but she said that was their job.
Topline Vice President Kamala Harris has a razor-thin one-point edge over former President Donald Trump, according to a new national HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday, marking a statistically tied race less than a week before Election Day—but one in ten likely voters could change their minds.
Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 49%-48% among likely voters, with 2% backing independent candidate Cornel West and 1% favoring the Green Party’s Jill Stein—including voters who were unsure but leaning toward one candidate (the data includes people who have voted early).
That’s similar to a HarrisX/Forbes survey a week earlier, which found Trump with a 49%-48% lead including “leaners,” but a narrower race than shortly after last month’s debate, when Harris led Trump 52%-48%, not including third parties.
Harris’ lead is also 49%-48% across the seven battleground states likely to determine the winner, compared to a 50%-46% Trump advantage a week ago.
There’s still room for the race to shift, even with just days left: Some 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters are still weighing their choices, including 14% of battleground state voters, three in ten independents, nearly a quarter of voters ages 18 to 34 and more than a fifth of Black and Hispanic voters.
HarrisX surveyed 4,523 registered voters and 3,718 likely voters, some 910 of whom were in the battleground states, between Sunday and Tuesday—the margin of error was about 1.5 percentage points.
Crucial Quote
“The race is a statistical tie and it's going to be a squeaker of an election. Trump has gained in the national vote, but Harris has narrowed the race in the battleground states. Everything is possible, including Trump winning the national vote and Harris squeaking through in the electoral college, therefore the race remains difficult to call from a polling perspective," Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, told Forbes in an email.
Key Background
As Election Day draws nearer, the race between Trump and Harris is among the closest in living memory. Harris has a 1.2-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, but Trump is narrowly favored in most battleground states—albeit with single-digit margins that could easily flip. In a race this close, turnout could prove crucial, as Harris leads among frequent voters while Trump has a large edge among so-called low-propensity voters. The race may also hinge on racial shifts: The HarrisX/Forbes poll found Harris with a 10-point edge among Hispanics and a 47-point margin with Black voters—far weaker numbers than President Joe Biden in 2020—but Trump’s 11-point lead with white voters is smaller than his 2020 advantage. Trump’s gambit to win over more Hispanic voters hit a snag Sunday when a comedian at his rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” drawing outcry from a litany of well-known Puerto Ricans, though its impact on the race is unclear.
What To Watch For
The gender gap—with Trump leading among men and Harris among women—remains a potent force in the race. “In the final stretch, Trump needs to focus on women and Harris on men, where each has a 10 point advantage over the other — one of the largest among the demographics,” Nesho said.
Tangent
Registered voters are slightly more likely to have a favorable view of Harris (47%) than Trump (45%), but both candidates are viewed unfavorably by more voters (48% in Harris’ case, 51% for Trump)—reflecting a starkly polarized country. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s favorability is just 38%, with 57% viewing him unfavorably.
Three Georgian opposition parties who allege last weekend's election was rigged called for streets protests next Monday as an exit pollster said the official result, which gave victory to the ruling Georgian Dream party, was "statistically impossible".
Global market research and data firm HarrisX, which carried out an exit poll for Georgia's weekend parliamentary election, said on Thursday that its analysis showed discrepancies in the results reported by the Central Election Commission (CEC) that could not be statistically explained and pointed to possible voting irregularities.
HarrisX's poll - commissioned by a Georgian opposition television station, Mtavari Arkhi - showed the combined four main opposition parties on course for a parliamentary majority in Saturday's election.
"We will gather on Monday at 7 p.m. ... and tell you there our plan of action. In detail, how at home or abroad, within the legal framework, peacefully, but via organization and with a concrete result, we will continue our protest," Ana Dolidze of the Strong Georgia opposition bloc told a press conference of the three opposition parties.
Georgian Dream, whose billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili is seen as the country's most powerful man, won nearly 54% of the vote in Saturday's election, the election commission said.
However, monitoring missions, including the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, pointed to severe allegations of voting violations which Western countries said must be fully investigated.
Georgian opposition leaders said sustained protests were key to their plan to challenge the election result.
"This is the most direct and ancient form of democracy, where a given government refuses to listen to its own people at the ballot box," Tina Bokuchava, leader of the United National Movement opposition party, told Reuters.
The analysis of the U.S.-based firm lends powerful support to complaints by President Salome Zourabichvili and opposition parties that the election was stolen. On Monday, thousands rallied outside the parliament building in Tbilisi against the results.
Many in Georgia and the West see the election as an important turning point that could determine whether the Caucasus nation shifts back into Russia's orbit under Georgian Dream or moves closer to its stated goal of joining the European Union.
The CEC has insisted the vote was free and fair. Prosecutors have launched an investigation and called on Zourabichvili, an opponent of Georgian Dream, to provide proof of her allegations of fraud - something she has said is their job, not hers.
"The analysis of our Exit Poll calibrated by final CEC information raises questions over the final vote count released by the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Georgia," HarrisX said.
"We see statistically unexplainable discrepancies amounting to over 8 percent of the total vote, or at least 172,523 raw votes, across a minimum of 27 districts."
It said the discrepancy "cannot be explained by statistical variance, pointing to possible voting irregularities."
HarrisX Releases Final Georgia 2024 Exit Poll Analysis:
Raises Questions Over Statistically Unexplainable Data Discrepancies by the Central Election Commission Involving At Least 172,523 Votes in 27 Districts, or Over 8 Percent of All Votes Cast
October 31st, 2024 7:30am EDT
Summary
Our analysis of the HarrisX/Mtavari Channel Exit Poll of over 12,000 Georgian Voters, compared to the official results published by the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Georgia, reveals a discrepancy of over 8 percent of the total votes cast, or 172,523 votes, across the country that cannot be explained by statistical variance, pointing to possible voting irregularities.
Even when we:
Adjust our Exit Poll data with the data released by the CEC (through a process called “weighting” by survey professionals).
Account fully for any kind of non-response bias in our Exit Poll.
Test differences in vote estimates between out Exit Poll and the CEC official numbers at a 95 percent Confidence Interval – the highest statistical threshold;
We identify 27 electoral districts (out of 73 districts in Georgia, excluding occupied regions and voting centers abroad) with large discrepancies between the Exit Poll and CEC results. In some areas the variance is statistically impossible: for example, in the district of Marneuli, the Georgian Dream party won 48% of the vote in the 2020 parliamentary election. According to the HarrisX exit poll, Georgian Dream won 40% of the Marneuli vote in the 2024 election, but The CEC reports Georgian Dream receiving 80% of the vote. A variance of 40% between the HarrisX exit poll data and the official CEC data in Marneuli is both improbable and impossible.
This raises a series of questions that we call on the CEC to answer in the interest of public transparency.
Sections of this memo are as follows:
Exit Poll Methodology and Overview of Preliminary Results Published 10/26/2024 at 8 pm
Restated Results Factoring CEC Turnout Data, Overseas Ballots, and Age and Gender Weights
Results by Age, Gender and Time of Day
Questions About CEC Data Discrepancies Pointing to Possible Voting Irregularities
1. Exit Poll Methodology & Preliminary Results on October 26, 2024
HarrisX/Mtavari Channel Exit Poll Methodology
HarrisX conducted an exit poll of 12,007 Georgia voters at 125 polling stations across all 11 regions in Georgia. The 125 polling stations were randomly selected in proportion to the population distribution of Georgia. In each region, these polling stations were representative of the demographics and past voting behavior of that region. The margin of error for the Exit Poll of 12,007 voters is +/- 0.9%. Outlined below is the number of the 2024 parliamentary election voters surveyed in each region.
Data Confidence and Quality
We have high confidence in our Exit Poll results for a number of reasons:
We surveyed 12,007 Georgian voters as they left their polling locations. For comparison, the US national election exit polls conducted every 2 years survey approximately 15,000 voters in a country with a population that is 100 times larger than the population of Georgia.
We conducted the Exit Poll in 125 randomly selected polling locations distributed throughout the country proportional to its population. The randomly selected polling locations match the local demographics and past political behavior at the district and region level within 2%.
The interviews were conducted by local professional interviewers who had identifying information as exit poll workers and who were trained by HarrisX ahead of time.
The survey was largely self-administered by the respondents themselves, who were given tablets to individually and confidentially submit their responses outside each polling location.
Our professionally trained survey interviewers recorded the gender and approximate age of each person leaving each polling location to ensure the voters who agreed to take the survey were representative of the total electorate in the polling location. Where respondents began the survey but chose not to complete it, they provided their gender and age.
The HarrisX results are largely consistent with the results of the only other exit poll conducted by a non-Georgian polling organization, Edison Research.
The exit poll results of the other questions asked in the survey are consistent with the results of the vote choice question and consistent with other public polling. For example, 84% of exit poll respondents said they support Georgia joining the European Union in the future, which is consistent with other public opinion surveys1. Furthermore, 40% said they support keeping the same government in power while 48% preferred a change in government. Four percent of respondents said they don’t know while 7% refused to answer the question. Ninety-four percent of those who supported keeping the same government said they voted for Georgian Dream while 93% of those supporting a change in government said they voted for other parties.
The exit poll results are consistent with changes in turnout. For example, compared to the 2020 parliamentary election, we measured a significant increase in turnout among women, and our polling shows that women - especially younger women - preferred the opposition. (Source for 2020 Election Results: ElectionsData.ge/data)
Full HarrisX Exit Poll data has been made available to journalistic institutions to independently assess, and is accessible to credentialed NGOs, academic and public institutions upon request.
Preliminary Results as of 8pm October 26, 2024
HarrisX released the following Preliminary Exit Poll Results with Mtavari Channel as soon as the polls closed at 8pm, October 26, 2024. The preliminary results were based on a partial sample of 10,300 respondents collected up to 6:45pm local time, or 75 minutes prior to the end of the voting process. The data was weighted by the regional turnout statistics released by the CEC as of 5pm local time. As of the preliminary results, the four opposition blocs (Coalition for Change, UNM, Lelo and Gakharia) that were above the qualifying threshold received 48% of the total vote, the Georgian Dream party received 42% of the vote. The parties below the threshold received 7% while 3% of respondents refused to answer or left the question unanswered.
2. Adjusted results factoring in CEC Turnout Data, Overseas Ballots, and Age and Gender Weights
Restated Exit Poll Results
We have adjusted the Exit Poll data based on final turnout statistics provided by the CEC, as well as age and gender to account for any potential non-response bias, through a process called re-weighting. We have also added overseas voting results to the data. Doing so aligns the exit poll data fully to the parameters released by the CEC. (Source for final turnout and overseas ballots: Central Election Commission of Georgia)
With this adjustment in place, the data puts Georgian Dream at 44.4%, all other parties combined at 52.2%, 0.7% blank/spoiled ballots and 2.7% refusals to answer. The results that account for the final data parameters published by the CEC still place Georgian Dream nearly 10% below the published CEC results. In raw vote numbers, 44.4% percent of the national vote would place the Georgian Dream at roughly 911,000 votes, compared to 1,119,908 votes reported by the CEC. That is an approximate difference greater than 200,000 votes.
We must also state that we cannot be confident the CEC data parameters are fully accurate given the identified, statistically unexplainable data discrepancies outlined in section 4 of this document. The adjusted results below are based on the published CEC data that show unexplainable statistical variance in at least 27 voting districts that favor Georgian Dream. In our view, based on CEC own figures and the HarrisX Exit Poll data combined, it is almost certain that the actual Georgian Dream vote share is not more than 44.4%, and likely somewhere below that number. Unless the CEC clarifies the statistical data discrepancies, the below figures should not be used as the final HarrisX Exit Poll results. There is no other statistical adjustment that is presently available that could conceivably shift the results further.
For clarity, the adjustments we made are as follows:
Age and Gender Weighting to Mitigate Non-Response Bias
To collect 12,007 Exit Poll interviews, the HarrisX survey team made contact with 45,054 voters, with an overall response rate of 26.6%. In the cases where voters refused to engage with the interviewers, the HarrisX noted their gender – and where the interview was started but not completed – their age.
Because we noted the age and gender of voters who did not participate in our survey, in order to control for non-response bias, we adjusted the Exit Poll results to match the age and gender of the combined sample of survey respondents and non-participants.
When we re-weighted our survey to match the combined survey respondents and non-participants to control for non-response bias and added the votes cast abroad, the combined Other Party Vote decreased 0.4 percentage points from 52.6% to 52.2% while Georgian Dream’s vote share increased marginally by 0.7 percentage points from 43.7% to 44.4%. These new weights also include the final turnout by region information released by the CEC.
3. What the Data Tells Us: Results broken down by Age, Gender and Time of Day
Results by Time of Day
The Exit Poll data found that Georgian Dream started the day with 47.3% of the vote and never surpassed that level. Further, the Georgian Dream vote share deteriorated throughout the day. Conversely, the other parties combined started the day with just under 50% of the vote, were receiving 53.4% of the vote by midday and rose to 58.1% by the end of the voting period. At no point on election day was Georgian Dream winning more than 48% of the national vote.
Results by Age and Gender
Women ages 18 to 34 showed to the lowest support for Georgian Dream, with two-thirds voting for other parties. Men ages 18 to 34 voted for the opposition by a 14-point margin while women 35-54 voted for the opposition by a 10-point margin. There are no age/gender groups among whom Georgian Dream won more than 51% of the vote.
Results By Region
Turnout increased substantially in Tbilisi compared with the rest of the country. While Tbilisi accounted for just 27.6% of the parliamentary election vote in 2020, according to the CEC results, Tbilisi made up 30.5% of the 2024 election turnout. In fact, this means that Tbilisi alone accounted for 98,564 of the 141,751 vote increase from 2020 to 2024, or 69.5% of the increase in votes. (Source: Central Election Commission of Georgia)
The CEC results show that while compared to 2020, the parties other than Georgian Dream increased their total vote in Tbilisi by 55,014, the ruling party effectively neutralized the increased support for the other parties by increasing its own vote by 43,550 in the capital. In the rest of the country, the ruling party increased its vote by 153,570 while the other party vote decreased by 110,383. (Source: Central Election Commission of Georgia)
This result is not compatible with our exit poll. Our exit poll shows that the other parties increased their vote share in Tbilisi while keeping nearly all of their vote share outside the capital.
4. Questions about CEC Data Discrepancies Pointing to Possible Voting Irregularities
Our statistical analysis has identified 27 districts (out of 73 total districts in Georgia, excluding occupied regions and voting districts outside the country) where the large discrepancies between our exit poll results and official results cannot be explained by statistical variance, suggesting potential voting irregularities.
The district-level variance between the adjusted Exit Poll results put forth in this memo and the CEC results ranges from a low of 8% in the Gidani district of Tbilisi to a high of 40% in the Marneuli district of Kvenmo Kartlu. In Marneuli, for example, Georgian Dream won 48% of the vote in 2020. According to the HarrisX exit poll, Georgian Dream won 40% of the vote there in 2024. But the official CEC results show 80% of the vote for Georgian Dream in the district of Marneuli.
The average variance across the 27 identified districts is 15%, or a sum of at least 172,523 raw votes, as estimated and outlined in the table below. This variance amounts to over 8% of the total turnout of 2.06 million Georgian voters.
The discrepancies observed by HarrisX are not limited to the 27 districts outlined above. We also see statistically significant differences at a 90 percent confidence interval in at least the following 4 districts – 09. Nadzaladevi; 27. Mtskheta; 53. Vani; 60. Ozurgeti. Nevertheless, we have not included these districts in our list because our Exit Poll sample in these districts is limited.
Conclusion
The analysis of our Exit Poll calibrated by final CEC information raises questions over the final vote count released by the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Georgia. We see statistically unexplainable discrepancies amounting to over 8 percent of the total vote, or at least 172,523 raw votes, across a minimum of 27 districts.
The HarrisX comparative vote analysis has identified unusual vote shifts between the 2020 and 2024 elections, and between our Exit Poll and the 2024 CEC final results, which appear far out of line with what could be explained by statistical variance or non-response bias. Even when the Exit Poll data is adjusted to reflect the full data parameters published by the CEC, the final election result placing Georgian Dream at 53.96% is, simply put, statistically impossible.
The CEC has asked for experts to provide insight on the final results. HarrisX calls on the CEC to provide more information and answers in the interest of public transparency.
Disclaimers
It is critical that the public fully understands the following disclaimers and what the HarrisX Exit Poll analysis shows and what it does not show:
The analysis shows statistically unexplainable discrepancies in the CEC data across at least 27 districts.
The analysis shows the election result, as published by the CEC, placing the Georgian Dream party at 53.96% to be statistically impossible.
The analysis does not suggest that no other voting irregularities might have taken place in the 27 districts.
The analysis does not suggest that no voting irregularities took place in the remaining districts across the country.
The analysis does not account any potential impact of pre-election or day-off voting irregularities as cited by various international observation missions.
The analysis does not show the actual vote share the Georgian Dream or any other party received on October 26th. Such analysis cannot be completed until the CEC clarifies the statistically unexplainable data discrepancies in the data the CEC has published to date.
About HarrisX
HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company in the United States. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election as rated by the Washington Post and American Research Group. It currently acts as pollster for Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX conducts multi-method research, including exit polls, in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, Fortune 100 companies and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX is the sister company to The Harris Poll which has been polling since 1963.
oday, Blockchain Association, in partnership with HarrisX, released public perception polling and findings on the economic cost of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s “regulation by enforcement” approach to the U.S. digital asset industry under Chair Gary Gensler’s leadership.
A targeted industry. Under Chair Gensler’s SEC, the digital asset industry found itself an outsized target of a hostile SEC, receiving more than 100 enforcement actions through 2023. According to polling, more voters believe that the U.S. has taken the wrong rather than right approach toward crypto and that the SEC has been too heavy handed – voters prefer clear rules and regulation over enforcement by a factor of two-to-one.
Fighting back. According to self-reported figures collected, anonymized, and aggregated by HarrisX, the U.S. digital asset industry has spent more than 400 million dollars defending itself against Chair Gensler’s SEC, with untold losses of jobs, innovation, and U.S. investment. Importantly, this only represents a small slice of the industry – figures self-reported by a sample of Blockchain Association members only. Many of the cases the industry is embattled in are far from over, and will only result in a greater waste of resources as they drag on.
Time for change. It’s clear the American investor – the American voter – is eager for a leadership change at the SEC. Importantly, Congress must act to implement comprehensive digital asset legislation. According to today’s polling, two-thirds of voters agree the SEC should wait for clearer guidelines from Congress.
Crypto is an up-for-grabs election issue. Neither political party currently “owns” the crypto issue, but voters say they are more likely to support and back candidates who encourage innovation in the digital asset space. In fact, crypto voters make up 18% of the electorate and are even more winnable than other voters on issues concerning an overreaching SEC.
“The SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement approach is harming the United States' global tech leadership – and failing the American investor the SEC is mandated to protect,” said Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith. “Our mission at Blockchain Association is steadfast. We will continue to fight on behalf of our members – in Washington, through legal action, and in the court of public opinion – to ensure the United States becomes a place where the full potential of crypto and blockchain technology can be realized. That begins with a change of leadership at the SEC.”
Alex Chizhik, Chief Commercial Officer of HarrisX, added, “The data are clear: Crypto owners and the crypto industry are not against regulation. They are against being singled out by a regulator aiming to score political points. They are against innovation being stiffed at the expense of American jobs and the future strength of the industry. Our analysis of the SEC’s action clearly shows undue penalties and an undue focus on this specific industry.”
About Blockchain Association: Blockchain Association is the leading nonprofit organization dedicated to promoting a pro-innovation policy environment for the digital asset economy. We work with our members to educate policymakers about blockchain technology and its ability to pave the way for a more secure, competitive, and consumer-friendly digital marketplace. Our mission is to advance the future of crypto in the United States, promoting the potential of blockchain technology and shaping policy that ensures its success.
About HarrisX:HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll runs 365 days a year in the United States as an omnibus survey; for more information email OvernightPoll@Harrisx.com.
Originally posted on Oct 30, 2024 09:18am EDT by Forbes' Sara Dorn
Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the six most recent national polls—as surveys show a virtual dead-heat contest for the White House marked by tossups in all seven swing states, keeping the race wildly unpredictable as the election draws nearer.
Key Facts
Harris leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.
Harris is up 51%-47%—with just 3% still undecided—in a very large likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a survey backed by several universities and conducted by YouGov, which polled around 50,000 people from Oct. 1 to 25.
Trump also trails Harris 44%-43% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), representing a narrowed lead for Harris since she entered the race in July, with the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll showing her ahead by two points.
Harris is up three points over Trump, 50%-47%, in Morning Consult’s weekly survey, also released Tuesday (margin of error 1 point), after she led by four points, 50%-46%, in the group’s previous two polls.
Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% edge in early October, while a CBS/YouGov survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%, a shift from the vice president’s 51%-48% mid-October lead (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5, and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).
An Emerson College Polling survey (Oct. 23-24) released Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% one week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and it’s the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris hasn’t enjoyed a lead since August.
Trump and Harris are also deadlocked at 48% among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even when they’ve lost the White House, the Times notes.
The Times poll represents a decline in support for Harris since the newspaper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three surveys over the past week show Trump with a narrow advantage and six others found Harris leading.
The candidates are also dead even, at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS poll released Friday (margin of error 3.1), also representing a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups’ September survey, while their poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race found Trump with 49% support and Harris with 46%.
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those who are leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he’s up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.
Harris erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
Who Do The Polls Predict Will Win The Election, Harris Or Trump?
Trump is favored to win the electoral college 52 times out of 100, compared to 48 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast.
Big Number
1.4. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Trump up by 0.4, and Nate Silver has Harris up 0.9 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona; they’re tied in Nevada, according to the Silver Bulletin. However, many of the seven swing states have margins of less than one percentage point.
Surprising Fact
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
How Did The Debate Impact Polls?
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.
Pro-Western opposition groups in Georgia have refused to accept results that hand victory to the increasingly authoritarian ruling party, after a pivotal election focused on the country's future path in Europe.
The Georgian Dream party of billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili claimed outright victory and the central election commission said it had won 54% of the vote based on more than 99% districts counted.
The initial results were dramatically different from exit polls conducted by Western pollsters.
Tina Bokuchava of the opposition United National Movement said the elections had been falsified and the vote "stolen from the Georgian people".
Another opposition leader, Nika Gvaramia, said Georgian Dream had mounted a "constitutional coup", while analysts said its increased vote share from four years ago was scarcely credible.
Both Georgian Dream and the four pro-EU opposition groups trying to end its 12 years in power had earlier claimed victory based on competing exit polls.
Voters turned out in big numbers on Saturday in this South Caucasus state bordering Russia, and there were numerous reports of vote violations and violence outside polling stations.
One opposition official in a town south of the capital Tbilisi told the BBC that he was beaten up first by a local Georgian Dream councillor, and then "another 10 men came and I didn’t know what was happening to me".
A coalition of 2,000 election observers called My Vote said given the scale of vote-fraud and violence it did not believe the preliminary results "reflect the will of Georgian citizens".
The opposition has described this high-stakes vote as a choice between Europe or Russia. Many saw the vote as the most crucial since Georgians backed independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
As Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are traveling to swing states across the country to make their final pitch to voters, the race in Utah is all but decided.
A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX shows Trump is polling 30 percentage points ahead of Harris among Utah voters, with just over a week to go before Election Day.
The poll shows Trump with 61% support among Utah voters, compared to 30% for Harris. Another 2% say they’ll vote for independent candidate Cornel West, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein garners 1% support, and 6% of voters say they’re unsure.
When including which way undecided voters are leaning, Trump’s support among Utah voters increases to 63%, Harris’ to 31%, West to 4%, and Stein to 2%.
Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, said Trump is seeing more success this year in Utah than in past presidential elections.
“Donald Trump currently holds a strong position in Utah’s presidential race, polling at 61%,” he said. “Over recent election cycles, his support among Utah voters has grown, with his share increasing from 46% in 2016 to 58% in 2020. As the election approaches, he appears to once again be in a strong position in the Beehive State.”
The poll was conducted by HarrisX Interactive Oct. 15-19, among 813 registered Utah voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Brigham L. Tomco is a staff writer on the politics team covering Utah’s congressional delegation, governor and state legislature.
Utah Republican Gov. Spencer Cox leads his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Brian King, by 32 percentage points in the latest Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted less than a month before the general election.
A majority of respondents said if the election were held today they would vote for Cox. In a full-ballot scenario, Cox received 51%, King received 19%, Independent American candidate Tommy Williams received 4%, Libertarian Party candidate Robert Latham received 3%, and unaffiliated candidate Tom Tomeny received 2%.
Over one-fifth of respondents, 22%, said they were unsure or didn’t know which of the five candidates on the ballot they would vote for. The poll did not include an option to write in the name of another candidate.
When undecided voters were asked to choose between the five candidates on the ballot, Cox’s lead increased by 10 percentage points to 61%. King’s total increased to 21%. Third-party candidates each experienced a small boost, but none exceeded 10%.
The poll was conducted by HarrisX between Oct. 15-19 among 813 registered Utah voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.
Cox responds to poll results
The Cox campaign said the results of the poll affirm that Utahns approve of the governor’s work in office.
“Gov. Cox continues to deliver for voters by signing the largest tax cut in Utah history and supporting major teacher pay raises that now rank Utah teachers top 10 in the nation for starting salaries. He will continue to work hard to earn the support of voters,” campaign spokesperson Matt Lusty said.
The poll found that Cox enjoys a 56% approval rating of his job as governor, with 18% of respondents saying they strongly approve, 38% saying they somewhat approve, 18% saying they somewhat disapprove and 14% saying they strongly disapprove, for a total of one-third of Utahns that disapprove of Cox’s actions in office.
Cox’s approval rating climbs to 64% among self-identified Republicans and remains high, at 61%, among self-identified conservatives. Nearly half of Democratic respondents, 49%, and independent respondents, 47%, said they approve of Cox’s tenure.
King responds to poll results
The King campaign said the results of the poll may reflect Cox’s high name recognition, but they ignore “the reality on the ground.”
“Utahns are fed up with a governor who serves as a lapdog for an out-of-touch, politically monopolized legislature, all while ignoring the issues impacting everyday Utahns,” campaign manager Gaby Finlayson said. “Brian King is building a coalition of voters who are tired of being ignored and ready to make their voices heard. We’re confident that, on election night, Utah will see the power of pragmatic, values-driven leadership.”
While the poll shows Cox with widespread approval, including among Democrats, the partisan breakdown reveals more polarized support. If the election were held today, 27% of Democrats said they would vote for Cox, while 56% said they would vote for King and 11% said they were unsure.
Breaking the results down by party identification shows 68% of Republican respondents currently plan on voting for Cox, 9% plan to vote for King and 17% said they were unsure of who they would choose among the names listed on the ballot. It is unclear how many of these respondents plan to write in Phil Lyman, who lost to Cox in the GOP primary after winning the state convention among party delegates.
Election Day
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted in August found Cox with a 40-percentage-point lead in a head-to-head with King.
Polling in early October from Noble Predictive Insights found Cox leading among likely voters with 49% of support to King’s 23% and Lyman’s 5%, with nearly 20% of voters undecided.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Utah voters should have received their mail-in ballots last week. You can find Deseret News’ political coverage here.
Originally posted on Yahoo News on Thu, October 24, 2024 at 9:00 AM EDT
HumanX and HarrisX Unveil AI Adoption Survey of Thousands of U.S. Business Leaders, Exposing Key Trends, Opportunities and Challenges Facing the Enterprise
Commissioned by HumanX ahead of its March 2025 gathering, the study reveals the realities of AI strategy, regulation, and investment in sectors including finance, healthcare, cybersecurity, and more.
NEW YORK, October 24, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--HumanX, the #1 conference for artificial intelligence (AI) leaders, today released the AI Adoption Index Survey in partnership with HarrisX, the nation’s most accurate pollster. This landmark survey of 1,059 U.S. business leaders across multiple verticals highlights the current state of AI adoption in the enterprise.
Consistent across all industries, executives are bullish on AI’s future, but the survey also reveals gaps in knowledge, strategy, and execution.
"This study is the first to expose the fears of leading executives about how AI is going to disrupt their organizations, the aspirations as those early-majority executives plot their course, and most strikingly, the factors that are contributing to the successes and failures of early AI deployments. Leaders who’ve reviewed the study are both nervous and hopeful that they now have data to use for their strategies and execution," said Stefan Weitz, CEO of HumanX.
AI Gives and AI Takes Away.
81% believe AI will positively impact their work, but 30% express concerns about job displacement due to AI—showing both optimism and fear about AI's impact on even executive-level roles.
AI Adoption Outpaces Preparedness.
Despite the enthusiasm for AI, many organizations are still navigating how best to implement it. 75% of companies report having a dedicated AI strategy, while over 90% of business leaders ranked themselves in the top tier for AI knowledge—a red flag and sign of overconfidence when leaders can’t afford it.
Surge in AI Investment Expected Across Sectors.
The survey underscores the increasing financial commitment to AI across industries. Most leaders report spending 10-25% of their budgets on AI initiatives, and 37% of respondents expect their AI investments to grow significantly over the next three years, particularly in sectors like cybersecurity, infrastructure, and enterprise software, which are preparing for large-scale adoption.
Regulation is Top of Mind for Leaders.
As AI becomes more integral to businesses, regulation remains a significant concern. 70% of respondents support more oversight of AI technologies, with 33% favoring company-led regulation, while 32% believe multiple entities—companies, governments, and international organizations—should collaborate on AI governance. This highlights the need for clearer guidelines and multi-stakeholder approaches to ensure AI is developed and deployed responsibly.
Data Quality and Management are Key Priorities.
Ensuring that organizations have the right infrastructure in place to maximize AI’s potential is critical. 56% of business leaders are prioritizing improvements in data quality and management over the next year. Notably, finance and enterprise software sectors are leading in this investment, while healthcare lags behind, potentially risking its ability to keep pace with innovation.
AI Seen as a Game-Changer for Jobs and Productivity.
Business leaders are optimistic about AI’s role in enhancing productivity and job growth. 62% of respondents believe AI will significantly improve their ability to perform their roles, with two-thirds expecting earnings to increase due to AI-driven efficiencies. However, sectors like retail, cybersecurity, and entertainment are also grappling with concerns over job displacement as AI becomes more integrated into workflows.
These trends paint a complex picture of AI adoption: while the appetite for AI is strong, significant work remains to align strategy, execution, and data management with future business goals.
"These results paint a picture of leaders in transition — those who deeply understand their peers' and competitors’ successes and failures are the ones who will win the day, internally and externally. We’re excited to make access to this data available to those who can most use it," said Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX.
For business leaders who wish to have access to the full data set (over 150,000 data points), HarrisX and HumanX will soon be offering a subscription service, complete with a dynamic portal and an AI-agent to help leaders understand their competitors and themselves. More information can be found at harrisx.com/humanx.
HumanX will convene the world’s leading innovators, investors, pioneers and policy thinkers at the first annual HumanX conference in Las Vegas, March 10-13, 2025. This study is helping to shape the already robust agenda, allowing speakers and partners to ensure what is covered at HumanX is precisely what their audiences need to hear to remain competitive and agile with their AI strategy. Learn more about the conference here.
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX/Forbes Poll showing former President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by one point nationally.
The Harvard Center for American Political Studies, the Harris Poll, and Harris X just released their latest poll, and it shows that immigration is the second-leading issue for American voters heading into the 2024 presidential election. It also reveals that the electorate is not sold on border promises by current Vice President (and Democratic presidential nominee) Kamala Harris.
The poll was conducted between October 11 and 13, and involved 3,145 registered voters who were surveyed online by the Harris Poll and Harris X. The margin of error is +/- 1.8 percent.
Biden Approval Rating
It’s easy to forget there’s a current occupant of the Oval Office, President Joe Biden, and respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of his performance in 12 different issue areas, ranging from “racial equity” to the “Israel-Hamas conflict”.
Biden received his highest marks on racial equity, with 49 percent of the voters polled approving of Biden’s handling of the topic. His lowest score was on the Israel-Hamas conflict, an area in which just 35 percent approved of Biden’s performance.
Biden’s second-weakest issue? Immigration, with just 36 percent of registered voters approving of Biden’s handling of aliens and border issues.
Most Important Issues – and Issue
Respondents were then offered 28 different issues (plus one catchall “other”) and asked, “What would you say are the most important issues facing the country today?”
“Price increases/inflation” led the pack, with 39 percent of registered voters placing it on their list of most important. That’s actually a 3-point decline for inflation as a critical issue confronting the United States compared to polling a month before.
Immigration, again, came in a close second, the choice of 35 percent of respondents and holding steady compared to that earlier polling.
Not surprisingly, there was a partisan split with respect to immigration: just 16 percent of Democratic voters put it on their list of top issues, compared to 36 percent of Independents and a whopping 53 percent of GOP adherents. In other words, absent weak Democratic concerns about immigration, it easily could have surpassed inflation.
Immigration actually was the top issue for Republican respondents, outpacing inflation by 9 points (price increases were a top issue for 44 percent of GOP voters).
Separately, respondents were given a list of nine different issues and asked which was most important to them personally.
Once more, inflation led the way, the key personal issue for 46 percent of those polled (including 52 percent of Republicans and 47 percent of Independents, but just 39 percent of Democrats).
The second most important issue to voters personally was, at noted at the outset, immigration.
It was the choice of 14 percent of registered voters Harris polled, including 13 percent of Independents and a quarter – 25 percent – of Republicans.
By contrast, only 5 percent of Democrats said that immigration was the issue that mattered to them the most personally. In fact, aside from the Israel-Hamas conflict (3 percent) and parental rights in schools (1 percent), no single issue was less important to Democratic voters than immigration.
Which Candidate Would Do a Better Job?
Harris next offered respondents a list of 19 different issues and asked them whether Harris or Trump would do a better job handling each.
Harris was rated best at handling seven of those issues, led by abortion (an 18-point margin), healthcare (by 13 points), climate change (Harris +15), and racial equality (14 points in the vice president’s favor).
Interestingly, Harris is also favored over Trump by 7 points (50 percent to 43 percent) when it comes to “helping the working class” and by 8 points when it comes to “helping small businesses”.
Trump’s led on the rest, and his biggest edge issues are strengthening the military (Trump +13), standing up to China (Trump +13) – and immigration (Trump over Harris by 12 points). Notably, Trump is favored to handle immigration over Harris by a 17-point margin by Independents.
As per a report by Consensys and HarrisX, 92% of crypto holders would vote in the upcoming elections.
The upcoming U.S. elections have promoted cryptocurrency in a way the industry has never seen before. Both political parties have leaned toward the crypto market and even accepted donations in the form of crypto.
Amid this craze, a new political force has emerged, which many call the “crypto voting bloc.” There is an estimation that 26 million American voters are involved with crypto. They have the power to influence the election results severely.
What makes this crypto-voting bloc unique is its higher voter turnout. 92% of crypto holders have plans to vote actively in the upcoming elections. A study by Consensys and HarrisX revealed this.
The Power of the Crypto Voting Bloc
Recently, a nationwide poll was conducted by The Digital Chamber. It is a crypto advocacy group.
The respondents were from both sides, Republicans and Democrats.
The results revealed that the crypto is ready to set the future of the elections. 60% of the crypto owners are Gen Z and millennials. 1 in 7 U.S. voters associate themselves with the crypto voter bloc. This makes up 16% out of 1,004 respondents.
According to them, a pro-crypto stance would play a net positive role in deciding whom to vote for. The black voters are currently leading this race. Per the survey released on 17th Oct, 40% of black voters consider crypto to play a significant role while voting in the upcoming U.S. elections.
4 out of 10 black American voters are in support of this stance. These are double numbers compared to white voters who agree with this.
Originally published on Deseret News by Samuel Benson on Oct. 17, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump, according to the latest Deseret News/HarrisX poll.
When asked who they will support in next month’s presidential election, 47% said they will vote for Harris, while 45% said they will support Trump. Nine percent said they are still undecided.
When those undecided voters were asked which way they lean, and those “leaners” were factored into the larger sample, Harris still maintains a slight edge, 51% to 49%.
The poll was conducted online from October 9-11 among 2,010 registered U.S. voters. The margin of error for the total sample — which reflects a nationally representative sample of registered voters — is +/- 2.2 percentage points. The full results of the poll can be found here.
Most voters think Harris will win
Even as Harris maintains a razor-thin margin over Trump, a slightly larger share of voters believe she will win — regardless of whether they will support her.
Voters were asked: “Regardless of who you support, if you had to pick, who do you think is more likely to win in the presidential election in November, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?”
In response, 53% of voters said they believe Harris will win, compared to 47% who say Trump will win.
Of that share, 8% of voters who plan to vote for Trump say they think Harris will win.
With less than three weeks until Election Day, Democrats are “increasingly anxious” that Harris’ victory is anything but guaranteed, CNN reported. In the seven battleground states, polls consistently show the race tied or within the margin of error.
Ballots have already been mailed in two dozen states, and voters in several other states began early voting. In Georgia, a key battleground state, a record number of early voters arrived when polls opened Tuesday.
In the Deseret News/HarrisX poll, 37% of voters said they have already received their ballot.
Country, economy on wrong track, most say
When asked if they believe the country is on the right track or off on the wrong track, a majority of voters — 63% — say the country is on the wrong track, while 26% say it is on the right track.
The same goes for views on the U.S. economy: 63% of voters say it is on the wrong track, while 28% say it is on the right track.
There is a significant partisan divide on this issue. While a majority of Democrats (52%) think the economy is on the right track, only 10% of Republicans think so. And while a plurality of Democrats (48%) believe the country is on the right track, just 9% of Republicans say so. About 7 out of 10 independent voters say the economy and the country are on the wrong track.
The figures pose a difficult challenge for Harris, who is campaigning on the successes of the Biden-Harris administration, but must also navigate widespread discontent with the state of the country. In her bid for the presidency, Harris — who ascended atop the Democratic ticket after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July — has frequently called for a “new generation of leadership.” But she has been careful not to criticize Biden or his record in office.
During an interview with ABC News’ “The View” last week, Harris said there “not a thing” she would do differently than Biden during their time in office together. Harris has served as Biden’s vice president since they took office in January 2021.
“I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact,” Harris said on “The View.”
Harris’ favorability outruns Trump’s
Of the four candidates on the major-party tickets — Harris, Trump, Sen. JD Vance and Gov. Tim Walz — Harris has the highest favorability rating: 47% of respondents said they have a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of her, while 48% said they view her unfavorably.
Harris has undergone a massive shift in her favorability ratings since Biden dropped out of the race. In a matter of two months, between Biden’s exit and late September, Harris dug out of a 17-point polling deficit (in July, 54% of Americans had unfavorable views of her, versus 36% favorable); by mid-September, an even share of Americans — 46.5% — view her positively or negatively, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. That marked the first time since 2021 that Harris’ favorability rating was above water.
Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability rating in the Deseret/HarrisX poll sits at 44%, with 51% viewing him unfavorably. Among self-described independent voters, the figures are even worse: 36% view him favorably, while 57% view him unfavorably.
Both of the major-party running mates, Vance and Walz, are still relatively unknown to a large chunk of Americans: 22% of respondents said they’ve never heard of Walz or have no opinion of him, while 19% said the same of Vance.
Vance sits at a 38% favorability rating and 42% unfavorability, while Walz has 37% favorability and 41% unfavorability.
Originally posted on Newsweek.com on October 15th, 2024 by Martha McHardy.
Former President Donald Trump is leading his opponent Kamala Harris among early voters in the swing states, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Harvard University, HarrisX, and The Harris Poll between October 11 and 13, found that Trump has a narrow lead among early voters in the battleground states, with 48 percent of the vote to Harris' 47 percent.
The poll surveyed 3,145 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It did not specify how many early voters were surveyed.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Democrats typically vote earlier and by mail more than Republicans do. A recent poll by Gallup, published on October 9, found that 46 percent of Democrats planned on voting early, compared to 31 percent of Republicans.
The poll also found that Harris leads among early voters nationwide, 51 percent to Trump's 43.
Early voters could be crucial to securing victory in the battleground states. Roughly 70 percent of the more than 150 million votes cast in 2020 being cast before Election Day — a huge increase from previous years that had much to do with the COVID pandemic.
The Harvard University poll found that Trump was leading among likely voters in battleground states, 49 percent to Harris' 47 percent.
But Harris was leading among likely voters nationwide, on 49 percent to Trump's 47 percent, with the former president leading among male voters, white voters, voters of Asian origin, as well as with rural voters. Harris led among female voters, Black and Latino voters as well as with urban and suburban voters.
Harris is likely to win the popular vote in November, with FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker putting her 2.4 points ahead of Trump nationally as of Monday. If Harris wins the toss-up states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin as well as Nebraska's 2nd District, she reaches the electoral threshold required to win.
According to FiveThirtyEight's forecast, Harris is projected to win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska's 2nd District for a total of 276 Electoral College votes, barring a major upset elsewhere, which would give her enough votes to take her over the line. The pollster predicts Trump will win in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 262 votes overall.
But RealClearPolitics' forecast shows that, taking into account the RCP polling average in each state, including toss-ups, Harris is to win in Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd District, while Trump will win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 302 Electoral College votes to Harris' 236.
A Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll published last week showed Trump leading in every swing state. The biggest lead was 5 points in Georgia. The poll, conducted between October 6 and 9, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Originally posted on Forbes.com on Oct. 15th, 2024 by Sara Dorn.
TOPLINE The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains a seeming dead heat less than four weeks before the election according to a string of surveys this month that show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in recent weeks.
KEY FACTS
Harris leads by four points in Morning Consult’s weekly poll released Tuesday, a one-point decline from her standing in its two previous polls.
Trump trails Harris 51% to 49% in a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey of registered voters released Monday, after the two were tied in the groups’ September survey.
Trump and Harris were tied at 48% in a new NBC poll of registered voters released Sunday, while an ABC/Ipsos poll, also released Sunday, shows Harris with a two-point (50%-48%) advantage among likely voters, within the ABC poll’s 2.5-point margin of error—a shift after both ABC and NBC showed Harris with a roughly five-point lead last month.
A third poll out Sunday from CBS/YouGov showed Harris leading Trump 51%-48% with likely voters—slightly tighter than Harris’ 52%-48% lead last month—while Harris has a narrower 50%-49% edge in the seven battleground states.
Other polls show the vice president with a larger edge, though the race has tightened in recent weeks: Harris is up four points over Trump, 49% to 45%, in an Economist/YouGov poll of likely voters released Wednesday, after leading him by five points (49% to 46%) in the groups’ Sept. 30 survey.
Harris is up 49% to 46% in a New York Times/Siena poll out Oct. 8, the first time she’s led Trump in the groups’ polling since July.
Three other polls over the past month—a Quinnipiac survey released Sept. 24, a New York Times/Siena poll out Sept. 19 and a CNN/SSRS poll released Sept. 24—showed Trump and Harris tied, while virtually all other polls show Harris ahead.
Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
WHO IS FAVORED TO WIN THE ELECTION, HARRIS OR TRUMP?
Harris is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’ odds at 52.2/47.6, writing he’s “never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50.”
BIG NUMBER
1.4. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a 2.5-point lead, and Nate Silver has Harris up 2.9 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.
HOW DOES HARRIS PERFORM AGAINST TRUMP IN SWING STATES?
Most surveys show Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump has an advantage in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages—but all seven swing states are within single digits.
SURPRISING FACT
A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll—which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters—showed 54% supported Harris compared with 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure who they would vote for. The support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden was running against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than past leads Democratic candidates have had, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polling and 50-point lead in 2016 polling. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
HOW DID THE DEBATE IMPACT POLLS?
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to plateau, including a NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate surveys show the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horserace between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sept. 19 found the majority of voters in every demographic gave positive reviews of Harris’ Sept. 10 debate performance, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days following the debate on Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
KEY BACKGROUND
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on Sept. 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14.
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump by a little over 1% nationally but showing Trump with a 2-point advantage in battleground states.
MAIL-IN VOTER BEHAVIOR EVENS OUT ACROSS PARTY ID, ONLY A 7-POINT GAP BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS (DOWN 12 POINTS FROM NOVEMBER 2020)
85% OF VOTERS SAY CBS SHOULD RELEASE FULL TRANSCRIPT OF HARRIS 60 MINUTES INTERVIEW
NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 14, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horserace remains close at 49-48, with Harris leading and up 1 point from September. Trump, however, leads in battleground states among registered, likely, and early voters. The poll also covers public opinion on policy issues and foreign affairs. Download key results here.
“There is no definitive answer – it’s about as close a race as you can possibly get, well within the confidence interval of any poll,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “Harris has lost some momentum from when she was first nominated but is still driving strong messages around her personality and some of her economic measures, while Trump leads on immigration, crime, and foreign policy but has been less effective on economic messaging.”
HORSERACE HAS HARRIS +1 BUT TRUMP LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES
81% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in the election (Democrat: 85%; Republican: 84%; Independent: 72%).
Harris holds a 1.7-point lead among likely voters, but in battleground states, Trump has a 2-point lead among both likely and registered voters.
There is a 10-point gender gap with female voters favoring Harris. The gap for Latino voters has widened from 7 points in September to 17 points (Harris: 54%; Trump: 37%; Don’t Know/Unsure: 9%).
50% of voters say they will vote on Election Day, 45% say they will vote early, and 5% do not plan to vote. Mail-in voting behavior is nearly even across party ID (Democrat: 49%; Republican: 42%; Independent: 44%), markedly different from that in November 2020 (Democrat: 54%; Republican: 35%; Independent: 45%).
Among those voting early, 51% voted for Harris and 43% voted for Trump (in battleground states, Trump: 48%; Harris: 47%).
14% of voters say they are still weighing their choices, including 25% of Independents.
Democrats and Republicans remain neck-in-neck in the congressional election (Democrat: 51%; Republican: 49%).
CANDIDATE STRENGTHS ON THE ISSUES CONTINUE TO VARY WIDELY
Trump’s perceived policy stances align more with those of the general public on issues like tougher law enforcement and opposition to open borders, the switch to electric vehicles, free healthcare for illegal immigrants, and men who have transitioned to women competing in women’s sports.
63% of voters are against a national ban on abortion. Most believe Harris is against such a ban (73%, +1 from September) and Trump is for it (54%, -1).
Though many voters say Harris is to the left (53%) and Trump is to the right (50%) of them politically, 59% say they would rather vote for someone to the right of them.
Voters believe Trump would do a better job on specific foreign policy issues like the Ukraine/Russia war (+9), standing up to China (+13), and the Israel/Hamas war (+10) over Harris, and 70% believe he has experience in foreign affairs. But 51% of voters believe Harris is better equipped to be commander-in-chief over Trump.
CURRENT EVENTS HAVE MINOR EFFECTS ON CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS
85% of voters say CBS should release the full transcript of Harris’ 60 Minutes interview. More broadly, 51% of voters say recent Harris interviews have helped her, and 49% say they have hurt her (an 8-point gap among Independents, with more thinking they hurt her).
Harris holds leads over Trump on 10 out of 15 presidential characteristics including right temperament (+15), relates to the working class (+12), and honest (+10), while Trump is seen as more experienced (+10) and a fighter (+6).
58% of voters say they were satisfied with FEMA’s response to recent hurricanes, and 67% of voters believe FEMA money should not have gone to housing illegal immigrants.
38% of voters say JD Vance won the vice-presidential debate, while 35% of voters say Tim Walz won.
67% of voters believe billionaires mostly support Trump, while 33% of voters believe they support Harris.
APPROVAL RATINGS AND MOOD OF COUNTRY REMAIN UNCHANGED, WITH ECONOMY TOP-OF-MIND
Biden’s approval rating sits at 42%, unchanged from the last three months, while 51% of voters approve of the job Trump did as President (-1 from September) and 49% approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice-President (+2).
51% of voters believe they will be better off economically under a new Trump administration, while 49% hold this belief for a Harris administration.
Inflation and immigration remain the top two national issues for voters, with 46% of voters saying inflation is most important personally (Democrat: 39%, Republican: 52%; Independent: 47%).
61% of voters say the U.S. economy is on the wrong track, staying relatively consistent since the summer of 2022. 47% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse (rural: 57%; suburban: 48%; urban: 40%).
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL’S STRIKES ON HEZBOLLAH AND RESPONSE TO IRAN, BELIEVING IRAN IS A SOURCE OF CONFLICT AND TERROR IN THE REGION
52% of voters say Hezbollah is a terrorist organization, with 54% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters saying they are unsure.
73% of voters say Iran is a regional sponsor of terror in the Middle East and blame Iran over Israel for escalating conflict, but 53% of 18-24 y.o. and 46% of 25-34 y.o. voters say Iran is not a regional sponsor of terror.
63% of voters believe Israel is justified in responding to the recent Iranian missile attack (18-24: 45%; 25-34: 50%; 65+: 77%).
63% of voters say campus protests in the U.S. are mostly about saving lives in Gaza rather than supporting Hamas and Hezbollah.
65% of voters say authors who support Hamas and Hezbollah should not be given airtime on national TV.
The October Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 11-13, 2024, among 3,145 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. As part of the sample, 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters were also interviewed. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
HarrisX founder and CEO Dritan Nesho joins The Hill's webshow Rising to discuss a HarrisX-Consensys study highlighting the huge potential impact crypto voters could have on the 2024 election.
A new national poll released by HarrisX in coordination with the Brem Foundation to Defeat Breast Cancer, No Patient Left Behind and AmyLev Strategies reveals alarming gaps in breast cancer screening and treatment across the U.S.
The survey highlights that 28 million women between the ages of 40 and 74 have not had a mammogram or other breast cancer screening in the past year. Even more concerning, 42% of these unscreened women have no plans to get screened in the next year.
Why? Cost.
Cost is a significant deterrent for many women when it comes to breast cancer screening. Among the 28 million women who have not been screened over the past year, nearly one-third cite concerns surrounding the price of care as a primary reason. This includes worries about the cost of the screening itself, as well as potential expenses for further diagnostic tests or treatment if any abnormalities are found.
HarrisX’s data comes at a critical time, given that early detection is key to increasing survival rates for breast cancer. Statistics show that one in eight women in the U.S. will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime.
Women who receive an early diagnosis boast a survival rate of over 99%, but this drops to 30% when the cancer is detected in its later stages.
Women’s concerns with the financial needs of prescreening are exacerbated by the high out-of-pocket costs associated with diagnostic follow-up procedures. Our poll found that one in three U.S. women and 41%of women aged 40-74 have been asked to return for additional tests following an initial abnormal mammogram or the discovery of symptoms like lumps or pain.Diagnostic tests, such as ultrasounds or MRIs, can range from $250 to $1,000,with some procedures costing over $3,000.
Nearly half of all women surveyed said they would avoid additional recommended diagnostic breast exams if the out-of-pocket cost exceeded $1,000 and that 48% of women would forgo breast cancer treatment if their out-of-pocket costs exceeded $2,000. That figure rises dramatically among women whose annual household income is less than $75,000, with 58% saying they would be unlikely to seek treatment under those circumstances.
Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, said “This data underscores a critical challenge: how the financial burden of breast cancer screening and treatment prevents millions of women from taking proactive steps in protecting their health. These cost concerns require urgent attention to ensure that early detection and effective treatment are more accessible.”
With nearly half of women surveyed expressing hesitation about pursuing necessary care due to cost concerns, financial barriers represent a significant obstacle to early detection and successful treatment.
Without immediate intervention to reduce the financial burden of breast cancer care, millions of women will continue to face unnecessary risks and barriers to potentially life-saving treatment.
Today, leading web3 software company, Consensys, and global market research and data analytics technology group, HarrisX, unveiled an insightful study on US voters’ views on the current blockchain and crypto landscape as it relates to the upcoming 2024 US election. The results highlight a rare bipartisan opportunity for candidates to win votes amongst crypto owners, of whom 92% plan to vote. Nearly half (49%) of voters nationally consider a pro-crypto stance important, and voters are 13% more likely to consider crossing party lines for a candidate with favorable crypto policies.
The survey polled a geographically representative sample of 1,664 registered voters nationally, along with an additional sample of 1,512 to 1,774 registered voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Texas, between September 4th and September 14th, 2024.
The Crypto Electorate is Politically Divided and No Party has a Monopoly on the Issue
With 85% of crypto voters believing it to be crucial for presidential candidates to take a pro-crypto position, Americans recognize the importance of maintaining the U.S. at the forefront of the crypto industry. This opens a critical opportunity for either party to capture meaningful votes in what is shaping up to be a tight race.
Voters remain divided on who they trust to set crypto policies. Over half (56%) support Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance, with a third saying they are more likely to vote for him because of it. On the other side of the aisle, 54% of voters believe it is important for Kamala Harris to take a clear position on crypto, showing that neither party has a monopoly on the issue. Similarly, voters are split between trusting Republicans (35%) and Democrats (32%) on setting crypto policies. This lack of consensus highlights broader uncertainty about which political approach will best foster innovation while protecting consumer interests in the crypto space.
The Importance of Regulatory Clarity to Protect Crypto Owners
These polling results are being released at a time when a number of high-profile web3 companies have brought litigation against U.S. regulators in an attempt to create regulatory clarity for the industry. 44% of voters think the U.S. government is doing too little to support the crypto industry. When asked what policy position would have a swing on a voter’s likelihood to support a candidate, 78% chose implementing measures to protect consumers from fraud and scams related to cryptocurrencies.
“There’s a myth that the crypto sector doesn’t want regulation, but that’s simply not true. Consensys is an active proponent of much-needed regulatory clarity to enable an industry that serves as the backbone of countless new technologies and innovations to thrive in the United States. We’ve been operating under a cloud of uncertainty for too long, and the results of this poll show that crypto is a bipartisan issue, with voters also calling for clarity and a pro-crypto stance,” said Joe Lubin, CEO and Founder of Consensys and Co-Founder of Ethereum.
Crypto Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin Could Be Decisive
Crypto owners could play a decisive role in the upcoming election, particularly in key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In Michigan, 59% of voters prefer a free market approach to crypto, while 41% believe the government should regulate it. Voters are split on which party they trust more to regulate the crypto industry, with 39% trusting Republicans and 36% trusting Democrats.
In Pennsylvania, 34% of voters are open to voting outside their party if a candidate supports pro-crypto policies, making this a critical opportunity for undecided voters. As with other states, neither party dominates trust to regulate crypto in Pennsylvania, presenting a unique opportunity for campaigning politicians.
In Wisconsin, the Republican Party has a slight edge among voters when it comes to setting crypto policies, with 40% trusting Republicans. In Wisconsin, crypto is gaining popularity among blue-collar voters as a financial lifeline amid economic uncertainty. These three states could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the election and emphasize the importance for both parties to address the crypto issue.
“You’re seeing the Presidential campaigns realize that Pro-crypto policies aren’t just smart for America, they’re smart electoral politics. And we are seeing more House and Senate candidates gravitate towards this issue as they realize they need to be educated and forward thinking, because that is what the electorate expects. We hope this polling data further illustrates that voters want their officials to embrace innovation” said Bill Hughes, Director of Global Regulatory Matters at Consensys.
“The crypto industry is mature and crypto voters are now an important, engaged, and motivated electorate advocating for the protection and growth of digital assets and related innovations. It’s no surprise then that this voter block, which is up for grabs by either presidential campaign, could tip the scales in an election that increasingly looks likely to be decided by a thin margin. In each state we polled there are today more crypto motivated voters than the last presidential election’s margin of victory“, said Dritan Nesho, Founder and CEO of HarrisX.
About the Methodology
This survey was conducted online by prominent pollster HarrisX across the United States between September 4-14, 2024, surveying 1,664 registered voters nationally; and in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and among between 1,512 and 1,774 registered voters.
The results reflect a geographically representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, area type, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, Cryptocurrency ownership, ideology, and 2020 vote choice where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 2.4 percentage points, and the sampling margin of error within each state is between +/- 2.3 and 2.5 percentage points depending on the state’s sample.
Today, the GW Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) Society of Presidential Pollsters Founder Mark Penn, in conversation with Christopher Arterton, professor emeritus and founding dean of the GW Graduate School of Political Management, will reveal the results of the latest "American Government in the 21st Century" annual survey, which takes a pulse of the American people on a wide range of issues related to how elected officials and public institutions are serving them. The complete survey results can be found here.
"Americans continue to desire bipartisanship from their institutions but feel they are not getting it," said Penn. "There's an appreciation that this country is built on compromise, but politicians are falling short on the demand for bipartisanship."
Confidence in federal government returns to levels from early Biden years
48% of voters say the presidency is working as an institution, up 7 points from last year (2024: 48%; 2023: 41%; 2022: 50%; 2021: 53%).
39% of voters say Congress is working as an institution, up 7 points from last year (2024: 39%; 2023: 32%; 2022: 41%; 2021: 40%).
Confidence in the Supreme Court remains largely unchanged, with 53% who say it is working as an institution.
63% of Democrats believe the President is most effective at doing their job, while 58% of Republicans and 44% of Independents, believe the Supreme Court is most effective.
Most voters prefer bipartisanship but do not see it in today's institutions
70% of voters believe bipartisan support is critical for major policy changes, but 82% characterize the bipartisan system of governing right now as broken.
The majority of voters believe the branches are becoming more politicized and that their representatives across all levels of government and judges prioritize political party interests over the national interest.
87% of voters believe U.S. politics has become too much about fighting and 77% say differences between the two parties have become so great that bipartisanship on big issues is no longer possible, even though over 3 in 4 voters prefer bipartisan compromise over gridlock or single party control of the government.
Voters demand more information and transparency from campaigns
A plurality of voters agree that the presidential campaigns have done too little to inform voters about their positions on the issues (Harris: 44%; Trump: 39%).
A majority of voters approve of measures to improve information and financial transparency from presidential campaigns, including 86% who say policy papers should be required, 83% who are in favor of financial spending disclosures, and 82% who want three presidential debates.
Strong support for First Amendment protections across all platforms
81% of voters say we need to strengthen the First Amendment's provision for freedom of speech and the press.
More than half of voters believe First Amendment rights should apply to social media and Big Tech platforms.
54% of voters believe it is inappropriate for the government to delineate misinformation when it comes to social media, and 57% believe the same for news media organizations.
70% of voters, and a majority across the political spectrum, perceive Big Tech companies as politically biased in their actions.
Voters generally satisfied with amount of power institutions hold right now
64% of voters say the President should have the same amount of power as they do now, regardless of who is in office, a 12-point increase from last year. In 2023, nearly one-third of voters believed the President should hold less power.
The majority of voters would keep the power of Congress, the Supreme Court, and other key federal agencies the same.
47% of voters say the federal government's power should be the same as now. 14% say it should have more power, down 7 points from 2023.
The George Washington University established the Society of Presidential Pollsters in 2010. The Society acts as a membership organization for the select group of people who have served as public opinion advisors to the President of the United States. The Society aims to collect and preserve records of the polling conducted on behalf of the White House over the last eight decades.
HarrisX, on behalf of the Society of Presidential Pollsters, conducted the survey online between Sept. 14 – 16, 2024 among 1,505 registered voters who were randomly recruited to participate in it. Results were weighted for age within gender, region, race or ethnicity, income, education, political party, and political ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin for error was +/- 2.5%.
About HarrisX HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
Vice President Kamala Harris is up four points over former President Donald Trump in a new Forbes/HarrisX survey taken after last week’s debate—the latest poll that shows voters believe Harris outperformed Trump in the debate, but it largely hasn’t changed her standing in the horserace.
Harris leads Trump by three points, 48% to 45%, with 8% undecided, in the HarrisX survey of 3,018 registered voters taken Sept. 11-13 (margin of error 1.8), and she gains a point, 52% to 48%, when voters who are undecided but are leaning toward a specific candidate are factored in.
That’s only a slight improvement in Harris’ polling since facing off against the former president: Harris and Trump were tied, at 45%, with 10% undecided, in a pre-debate HarrisX survey of 1,003 registered voters taken Sept. 9-10 (margin of error 3.1), and Harris is up by two points, 51% to 49% with so-called leaners accounted for.
The survey is consistent with other post-debate polls that show Harris’ lead has largely remained stable since the Sept. 10 debate, despite pundits and poll respondents saying she won: She’s up five points in a Morning Consult survey conducted a day after the debate, a one-point improvement from her lead in a Morning Consult poll taken the day of the debate, and she’s up five points in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday, also a one-point increase from her advantage in an Aug. 21-28 Reuters/Ipsos survey.
The majority of respondents, 58%, told HarrisX the vice president outperformed Trump, while 42% said the debate made them more likely to want to vote for Harris, compared to 33% who said the same about Trump.
The stagnation reflects dissatisfaction among swing voters and undecided voters on the candidates’ policies, HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho explained, noting “that missing something appears to be a deeper focus on issues like inflation and the economy, and a vision for the future—both candidates missed an opportunity there.”
Among undecided voters, 60% told HarrisX Trump gave them no information or very little about his plans for inflation during the debate, and 65% said the same about his plans for the economy, while 58% said the same about Harris’ plans for inflation and 59% about her plans for the economy.
Meanwhile, just 20% of undecided voters said Harris adequately focused on her vision for the next four years during the debate, and just 11% said the same about Trump.
“For the next 45 days this election Trump v. Trump and Harris v. Harris—or who is best able to build themselves up with the 8% of undecideds and 18% of swing voters yet to make up their mind who are issues voters and don’t care much about presentation and rhetoric,” Nesho said.
Harris outperformed Trump in every debate metric the survey asked about: their behavior/temperament (53% to 36%), their grasp on the policies/issues (49% to 44%), the values they communicated (52% to 41%) and their vision on the future (52% to 44%). More voters (48%) said they feel more confident in her ability to govern as president after the debate, compared to 35% who said the same about Trump. Some 33% said it made them less confident in Harris’ ability and 19% said it had no impact, while 40% said it made them less confident in Trump and 25% said it had no impact.
33%. That’s the share of voters who said inflation is the most important issue in the election. Voters were split, at 40%, on whether Trump or Harris demonstrated a better grasp on the issue during the debate, with 11% saying neither and 9% saying they don’t know. Key Background
Harris has erased Trump’s national polling lead since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and she announced her campaign on July 21. In a HarrisX poll days before Biden left the race, Trump led the president 48%-40%, or 53%-47% with leaners. The race is still within single digits nationally and is even closer in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election. Harris and Trump met—and debated—last week, their first and likely only face-off of the campaign as Trump has said he won’t debate Harris again.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE HERE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/09/17/new-harrisxforbes-poll-harris-won-debate-but-it-largely-hasnt-changed-voters-minds/
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed a new HarrisX/Forbes poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris's lead on former President Trump relatively unchanged following their presidential debate.
CLICK HERE FOR FULL POLL RESULTS: https://elections.harrisx.com/public/harrisx-permanent-political-debate-11-to-13.html
Topline Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by six points among likely voters in the latest survey that shows the Democratic candidate maintaining her lead after Tuesday’s debate—which most voters believe she won.
Key Facts
Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters in late August and early August ABC/Ipsos surveys—even though 63% of Americans said Harris won last week’s debate.
Harris led Trump 50% to 45% among likely voters in a Morning Consult poll taken Sept. 11—her biggest lead yet in the pollster’s surveys—and 47% to 42% in a two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters that closed Sept. 12 (in late August, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris with a 45%-41% advantage).
Pre-debate surveys found Harris’ polling surge appeared to be plateauing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist survey of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 that found Harris led Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August, though she still led him by three points, 51% to 48%, among those who say they definitely plan to vote.
Trump led Harris 48%-47% among likely voters in a Times/Siena poll taken Sept. 3-6, equal to the former president’s one-point advantage six weeks ago—marking one of Trump’s first leads by a major pollster since Fox News found him up 50%-49% in early August (the Times/Siena survey had a margin of error of 2.8 points).
Harris was up by two points, 47% to 49%, in a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College survey of likely voters, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll, and Harris led Trump by two points in a Sept. 1-3 Economist/YouGov survey, consistent with results from a week earlier (she led Trump by three points in an Aug. 17-20 survey and two points in an Aug. 11-13 poll by the Economist and YouGov).
Harris led Trump 47%-45% if third-party candidates were included or 48%-47% head-to-head in a Wall Street Journal poll released Aug. 29, marking the first time in over a year Trump has trailed in a Journal survey—a reversal from Trump’s 49%-47% head-to-head edge a month ago (the poll surveyed registered voters from Aug. 24-28, margin of error 2.5 points).
Harris had a 49%-47% edge in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters from Aug. 23-27, within the poll’s 2.4-point margin of error, as Trump and Harris split independents 45%-45% (the poll—taken Aug. 23-27—allowed respondents to pick third-party candidates, and in a head-to-head race, Harris’ lead shrinks to 49%-48%).
The vice president led Trump by five points—48%-43%—among likely voters in a Suffolk/USA Today poll taken Aug. 25-28, a massive shift from Trump’s 41%-38% lead over President Joe Biden shortly after Biden’s rough debate performance in June (the latest survey’s margin of error is 3.1 points).
A handful of other surveys showed Harris’ lead virtually unchanged since the Democratic National Convention: She led Trump by just one point in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll (compared to a tie shortly after the Republican National Convention, when Biden remained in the race).
Harris leads Trump by a larger margin—48% to 44%—in an Aug. 23-25 Morning Consult survey of registered voters, findings that mirror the group’s Aug. 16-18 survey taken before the Democratic National Convention, which concluded last week in Chicago.
Surveys have broadly shown a shift in Democrats’ favor since Harris’ July entrance into the race: In the leadup to the DNC, Harris had a 51%-48% edge among likely voters according to CBS and YouGov.
News Peg
ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump Tuesday from Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris to be the winner of the debate, as she repeatedly needled Trump, causing him to veer off topic. The majority of voters, 53%, who said they had heard at least something about the debate said Harris won, while 24% said Trump won, and the rest didn’t answer, Reuters/Ipsos found. Far more Democrats (91%) also said Harris won, than the share of Republicans (53%) who said Trump did, according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey.
Big Number
1.7. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead.
Contra
Trump led Harris in at least eight other polls after Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy. Trump led Harris by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
Surprising Fact
A Monmouth University poll released Aug. 14 found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads Trump by two points overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey taken Aug. 23-27. Harris leads Trump in six of the seven states, and is tied in Arizona.
Contra
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after a Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call prior to the convention. Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats held their convention Aug. 19-22 in Chicago.
Stagwell today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
The presidential horse race now sits at 50-50. Harris' favorability and job approval ratings remain at 47%, while Trump holds a 47% favorability rating and 52% job approval rating.
Voters believe Harris would do a better job on abortion, climate change, and racial equality, while Trump would do a better job on the economy, immigration, crime, and China. The poll also covers public opinion on the economy and foreign policy.
"Harris has drawn to dead even but Trump has an edge in the underlying numbers given his higher job approval and the overall low approval of the Biden administration," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO.
CONGRESSIONAL AND PRESIDENTIAL HORSE RACES BOTH NECK-AND-NECK
The presidential horse race is tied at 50-50.
Both presidential candidates are winning their respective party bases: male (50%), white (54%), and rural (59%) voters favor Trump, while Black (71%), urban (57%), and college-educated (52%) voters favor Harris. Independent voters are split almost evenly and 33% of them say they are still weighing their final choice.
50% of Hispanic voters say they will vote for Harris, while 43% say they will vote for Trump — only a 7-point gap. 7% of Hispanic voters say they are still unsure.
CANDIDATES ARE PERCEIVED AS WIDELY DIFFERENT ON THE ISSUES
Major differences emerged between how voters see Trump and how they see Harris on the issues. Harris is seen more often than not as favoring open borders, compassionate enforcement of laws, free healthcare to immigrants, and the switch to electric vehicles. Trump is seen as a stronger ally to Israel, harsher on China, and more of a defender of free speech on social media than Harris.
Trump is seen as favoring a national ban on abortion while Harris is seen as opposing such a ban.
49% of voters say Harris is to the left of them politically, while 50% say Trump is to the right of them politically.
LESS THAN HALF OF VOTERS APPROVE OF CURRENT ADMINISTRATION
Biden approval rating stayed steady at 42% from July. Among minority voters, 66% of Black voters approve, but only 39% of Hispanic voters approve.
Less than half of voters approve of Biden's performance across all issues, with racial equity his highest (47%) and the Israel-Hamas conflict his lowest (34%).
47% of voters approve of the job Harris is doing as Vice President, with high approval from Democrats (87%), Black (71%), and urban (60%) voters.
PERCEPTIONS TOWARD ECONOMY REMAIN PESSIMISTIC
63% of voters believe the U.S. economy is on the wrong track and 62% characterize it as weak, consistent with perceptions over the past year.
42% of voters named inflation as the most important issue facing the country today, up 5 points from July.
48% of voters say their personal financial situation is getting worse, especially among female (53%), 55-64 year-old (55%), and rural (57%) voters.
SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL OVER HAMAS UNCHANGED; YOUNG VOTERS SEEM UNINFORMED ON VENEZUELA ELECTIONS AND MANY FAVOR MADURO
69% of voters say a ceasefire of the Israel-Hamas war should only happen after Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released (ages 18-24: 45%; ages 65+: 84%). When asked to choose between Israel and Hamas without the choice to remain undecided, 79% continue to favor Israel while 21% favor Hamas.
71% of voters say the execution of six hostages was the fault of Hamas over that of the Israeli government.
More than half of voters have at least heard about the Venezuelan election, but 38% of voters say the Venezuelan election was not stolen by incumbent President Nicolás Maduro (ages 18-24: 49%; ages 25-34: 48%; ages 65+: 27%).
57% of voters say they support the protesters in Venezuela, and 60% support U.S. sanctions on Venezuela for allegations of election fraud, but 56% believe the U.S. government should not engage in another international issue.
The September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on September 4-5, 2024, among 2,358 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Utah Rep. John Curtis holds a 34-percentage-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Caroline Gleich, in the race to replace Sen. Mitt Romney, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX.
In a head-to-head contest, 56% of registered Utah voters said they would support Curtis, a Republican representing Utah’s 3rd Congressional District; 22% said they would cast their ballot for Gleich, the Democratic nominee; and another 22% said they don’t know who they would vote for, the poll found.
When these undecided voters were asked to choose who they would vote for if the election were held today, Curtis’ lead over Gleich increased to 71%-29%. This 40-point advantage remained constant when voters are given the option of voting for Independent American candidate Carlton Bowen.
“We are grateful to see the strong support from Utahns from all over the state,” said Curtis’ chief of staff, Corey Norman. “They know John and his record of getting things done and protecting our Utah values. We look forward to working hard to share John’s message of how he will continue delivering for Utah in the U.S. Senate.”
The poll was conducted from Aug. 2-9 among 800 registered voters in Utah by HarrisX. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
A unique election
These results track closely with the last few Senate elections in the Beehive State between a Democrat and Republican. In 2018, Romney beat his opponent, Jenny Wilson, 63%-40%. In 2016, Sen. Mike Lee beat the Democratic nominee, Misty Snow, 68%-27%.
Lee’s 2022 re-election bid featured a showdown with independent candidate Evan McMullin that saw the senator win by a narrower margin of 53%-43%. Utah Democrats did not advance a Senate candidate to the general election that year.
“An open U.S. Senate seat is a rare occurrence in Utah which led to a highly competitive primary and a compelling race to watch for the general election,” said Jason Perry, director of the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics. “John Curtis continues to be the clear frontrunner, bolstered by his strong name identification and a record of public service that resonates with voters. His approach to addressing Utah’s unique challenges also continues to improve his traction with the electorate.”
In a statement, Gleich said her candidacy has experienced a surge in momentum not represented in the poll. Gleich framed the race as a choice between a regular Utahn concerned about “Utah’s families, our freedom, and our future” and a “career politician.”
”Since entering the race in January, I have been so excited about the groundswell of support we’ve received from Utahns who are looking for a leader who will advocate for an economy that works for everyone, for clean air, and for reproductive freedom,” Gleich said. “While John Curtis presents himself as a moderate, he votes in line with Donald Trump 94% of the time and has an 88% rating from the Heritage Foundation, the authors of Project 2025.”
Curtis won his crowded primary race handily after campaigning on what he called “Utah values.” Up against Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, former Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and Moxie Pest Control CEO Jason Walton, Curtis came within 1.5% of snagging an outright majority of GOP primary voters.
During the campaign, Curtis sought to differentiate himself from the rest of the pack by leaning on his congressional track record as one of Congress’ most productive and accessible lawmakers. He highlighted achievements in shifting the conversation around energy policy, transferring historic amounts of federal land to Utah, taking a strong position on Chinese aggression and pushing back on budget recommendations from both Democratic and Republican administrations.
Curtis received criticism from fellow primary candidates for beneficial stock trades while in office and for the amount of outside money his candidacy attracted to the race.
During his seven years in Congress, Curtis has spearheaded the founding of the Conservative Climate Caucus, led Republican delegations to the United Nations climate conference, hosted multiple climate summits in the state and championed nuclear energy innovation.
Gleich, an athlete influencer and environmental activist, also promotes a priority on climate, but from a distinctively liberal angle. Over the last decade, Gleich has lobbied congressional lawmakers on “clean energy bills,” including the massive Inflation Reduction Act, and would support “systemic” investments to overhaul the energy grid, public transportation and electric vehicle infrastructure. And unlike Curtis, Gleich supports increased access to abortions and a higher federal minimumwage.
In the three-way race that will appear on Utah voters’ ballots, Curtis has the support of 79% of Republican voters, 12% of Democrats and 40% of independents. Gleich currently receives the endorsement of 73% of Democrats, 6% of Republicans and 26% of independents. Bowen has less than 10% from each group. Around 10% of Republicans and Democrats remain undecided, while nearly 20% of independents are not sure who they will support on Nov. 5.
HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho said “barring any unforeseen circumstances or surprises” Curtis — and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, who is running against the Democrat state Rep. Brian King — “are both likely to win.” New Deseret News polling shows Cox with a significant lead over his Democratic opponent.
“At this stage, there’s just not enough undecideds sitting on the fence to prohibit Cox’s re-election to Governor or Curtis’s Senate win,” he said.
Months away from a polarizing presidential election, most U.S. voters — regardless of party affiliation — believe one thing: there is a real possibility of more political violence erupting before and after Election Day.
According to a new Deseret News/HarrisX poll of U.S. voters, over three-fourths (77%) say they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about more political violence occurring before Election Day, including almost equal shares of Republicans (80%) and Democrats (82%).
Find the full dataset for the Deseret News/HarrisX survey on political violence here.
Political violence is on the rise, voters say
Most voters (63%) say political violence has gone up over the past four years.
There have been many high-profile incidents of political violence in that span. In 2020, many Black Lives Matter protests turned violent across the country, and on Jan. 6, 2021, riots broke out at the U.S. Capitol ahead of the certification of the 2020 presidential election.
In July, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on his life during a rally in Pennsylvania. Then on Thursday, Trump was whisked away during a news interview in Arizona after being informed he was “in danger.”
Will there be violence after the 2024 election?
After the 2024 election, many Americans fear violence could break out again. A majority of Democrats (83%) say they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about violence from Republicans who won’t accept the election results if Vice President Kamala Harris wins. And 76% of Republicans say they are concerned about violence perpetrated by Democrats if Trump wins.
The poll was conducted on Aug. 2-3, 2024, among 1,011 registered U.S. voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
Earlier this month, President Joe Biden said he’s “not confident at all” that there will be a peaceful transfer of power should Trump lose.
Trump has repeatedly said he’ll accept the election results if they are fair. “If everything’s honest, I’ll gladly accept the results. I don’t change on that,” Trump told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in May. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.” In the June presidential debate, Trump said he would “absolutely” accept the results “if it’s a fair and legal and good election.”
But Trump has already begun to cast doubt on the upcoming election’s legitimacy. In a North Carolina rally Wednesday, Trump implied his victory is a done deal, so long as the process is fair. “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote, it is to make sure they don’t cheat,” Trump said. “We have all the votes we’ll need.”
In response to Biden saying he’s “not confident” Trump will accept the results of the election, Trump said there will be. “Of course there’ll be a peaceful transfer, and there was last time,” Trump said.
After Trump lost the 2020 election, he insisted that the election was not fair and pushed for it to be overturned. A mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to impede the certification of that election.
Trump’s role in inciting that rally and interfering with a peaceful transition of power are at the center of a federal case against Trump, where he is indicted on four criminal counts. Trump was impeached in 2021 for inciting an insurrection.
In the Deseret News/HarrisX poll, nearly half — 46% — of Republican voters fear violence from their fellow Republicans should Harris win the election.
Among Democratic voters, 38% say they fear violence from their fellow Democrats should Trump be elected.
In the wake of the 2016 election, there were multiple protests that turned violent, when anti-Trump demonstrations broke out in New York, Chicago, Portland and other cites. Portland was also the location of political violence in 2020, when the federal courthouse in the city was vandalized and set on fire.
Supporters of then-President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier, Jan. 6, 2021, during a riot at the Capitol in Washington. | John Minchillo
Voters trust federal elections less than local ones
Voters are more likely to say they trust local elections than national ones. Seventy-eight percent of voters say they are “very” or “somewhat” confident in the validity of the results of local elections, and 74% said the same of state elections. But of presidential elections, 67% of voters said they are confident.
Among Republicans, only 57% say they are confident in federal elections, compared to 84% of Democrats.
A similar partisan division arises when voters are asked about contesting election results. Asked whether the president “has the necessary legal and legislative mechanisms in place to successfully adjudicate disagreement over election results,” two-thirds of all voters — 66% — say the president does. But only 53% of Republicans say the same, while 81% of Democrats do.
When asked what changes, if any, are needed to improve U.S. elections, the most popular reforms are mandatory ID checks (42%), more supervision of vote counting (30%) and reducing the amount of money in politics and political advertising (22%). Only 36% of Republicans think the U.S. should reduce mail-in voting — something Trump called fraudulent in 2020.
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox leads his general election opponent, Rep. Brian King, D-Salt Lake City, by 40 percentage points in a head-to-head contest, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll.
If the election for Utah governor were held today, the poll found that 59% of Utah registered voters say they would cast their ballot for Cox, the Republican nominee; 19% say they would vote for King, the Democratic nominee; and 23% say they don’t know or are unsure.
Cox’s hypothetical winning margin — 74 days out from Election Day — increased by 4 percentage points when undecided voters were asked to choose between the two major party candidates whose names will appear on the ballot in November.
“Gov. Spencer Cox and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson are grateful for the broad base of support that these numbers demonstrate,” said Cox’s campaign spokesperson, Matt Lusty. “They appreciate the team effort of everyday Utahns from across the state who have led Utah to being ranked by U.S. News and World Report as the best performing state in the nation. Gov. Cox and Lt. Gov. Henderson will continue to work hard until Election Day to earn every vote possible by sharing their message of fiscal responsibility and conservative leadership with Utah voters.”
This lead remained unchanged when voters were asked to choose between Cox, King and the two third-party candidates who qualified for the ballot, without being able to choose unsure as an option. Cox finished with 65% of the vote, King with 21%, Independent American Party candidate Tommy Williams with 8% and Libertarian Party candidate J. Robert Latham with 6% of the vote.
The poll matches up closely with the outcomes of the previous two general elections for Utah governor. In 2020, Cox defeated Chris Peterson 64%-31%. In 2016, former Gov. Gary Herbert defeated Mike Weinholtz 67%-30%.
“Challenging a popular incumbent is often a difficult task, and Governor Cox’s polling numbers prove this reality,” said Jason Perry, director of the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics. “To be successful, challengers need to build substantial name identification, raise large amounts of money, and articulate a compelling alternative vision for the state. These are all hard to do against a well-known incumbent which has put Governor Cox in a strong position.”
The poll was conducted from Aug. 2-9 among 800 registered voters in Utah by HarrisX. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Cox vs. King
Cox is running for re-election at the close of his first four-year term in office. The governor, who previously served as lieutenant governor for seven years, has campaigned on a record of supporting the Legislature in historic tax cuts, abortion restrictions and Second Amendment legislation. Cox has also led out on efforts to protect children from the harms of social media and incentivize the construction of first-time homes.
King has criticized Cox for allegedly amplifying “extreme” voices in his party on anti-DEI legislation and increased penalties for individuals who use public bathrooms that don’t match their biological sex.
As the former state House minority leader, King proposed gun control legislation requiring universal background checks on gun sales and led opposition to Utah’s 2020 law prohibiting elective abortions. King has billed his campaign as a way to restore balance to Utah’s Republican supermajority government and to give better representation to Utah’s diverse population.
In a statement given to the Deseret News, King said the poll results did not reflect his true support among Utahns disenchanted with the trajectory of the GOP and excluded the write-in campaign of failed primary candidate state Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding.
“This race has fundamentally shifted in recent days and the momentum is on our side,” said King’s campaign manager, Gabi Finlayson. “The recent poll, conducted before Phil Lyman’s write-in campaign and our ad went viral, does not include Lyman as an option and fails to reflect the current divisions within the Republican party.”
Since losing the GOP primary election on June 25 by over 37,500 votes, Lyman has called Utah’s election system “corrupt” and said he doesn’t believe Cox should be on the general election ballot. Lyman launched a write-in campaign for governor shortly after the Utah Supreme Court denied Lyman’s request to remove Cox and Henderson from office and advance himself to the general election.
“Governor Cox faces a serious challenge from Lyman’s campaign,” Finlayson said. “This write-in campaign highlights Cox’s inability to satisfy his own party.”
A write-in wrinkle to Utah’s gubernatorial race
Cox enters the general election season after emerging from a difficult Republican primary. Cox defeated Lyman, his GOP challenger, in the June 25 election by 9 percentage points — a solid victory by any standard, but less than his predecessors’ primary re-election margins.
While Cox won the state GOP convention in 2020 with 55% of delegate support, he lost to Lyman in 2024, 67.5%-32.5%, becoming the first signature-gathering incumbent not to meet the party’s 40% threshold at convention since a signature route was established 10 years ago, according to former GOP party chairman Spencer Stokes.
Lyman ran a relentless primary campaign accusing Cox of being overly welcoming to migrants and not aggressive enough on social issues. Shortly before his loss in the primary, Lyman began throwing doubt on the validity of Cox’s primary ballot qualification.
On Aug. 15, Lyman joined forces with King for a “Disagree Better”-style attack ad against Cox, poking fun at the governor’s initiative to bring down the temperature in political rhetoric, and advertising Lyman’s decision to launch a write-in campaign for governor. The ad says it was paid for by “Brian for Utah.”
In response to the Lyman-King ad, the Cox campaign highlighted King’s liberal record and framed Lyman’s write-in campaign as sour grapes.
“The choice voters have this fall is clear: Utah values or liberal, California-style policy positions,” Lusty said. “Losing is hard, but encouraging others to elect someone who believes in a Gavin Newsom style of government is the wrong solution for Utah.”
In the four-way general election survey question, Cox received support from 75% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats. King received support from 57% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. Cox led with 42% of independents, while King trailed with 17% of the independent vote and Williams and Latham split the remainder.
Around 15% of Republican and Democratic voters said they were unsure who they supported, and 22% of independents said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho said “barring any unforeseen circumstances or surprises” Cox, and Republican Rep. John Curtis, who is running against Caroline Gleich for U.S. Senate in Utah, “are both likely to win.”
“At this stage, there’s just not enough undecideds sitting on the fence to prohibit Cox’s re-election to Governor or Curtis’s Senate win,” he said.
New national and Utah polls show if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. drops out of the presidential race as expected on Friday, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will likely benefit the most.
Kennedy is set to announce plans for his independent presidential run in Phoenix, not far from where Trump will hold a rally later that day.
A former Democrat, Kennedy launched an independent bid after he said he was kept from competing in a primary against President Joe Biden, who has since decided not to run for a second term, making way for Vice President Kamala Harris, who officially became the Democratic nominee for president this week at the Democratic National Convention.
While Kennedy has languished in national polls at around 5% support, a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX shows he performs much better in Utah, where he has 15% support.
A national Deseret News/HarrisX poll conducted at the beginning of August shows Kennedy languishing at the national level, with about 8% support. But he performs much better in Utah, a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX shows, where he has 15% support.
Without Kennedy, Trump benefits both at the national and state level.
Trump vs. Harris — who benefits if Kennedy drops out?
The Deseret News/HarrisX national poll, conducted August 2-3 among 1,011 registered voters, showed Donald Trump at 47% and Kamala Harris at 45%, with 9% of voters saying they were unsure.
In a three-way race between Trump, Harris and Kennedy, Trump’s support drops to 42%, while Harris’ drops only one point to 44%, and Kennedy picks up 8% of voter’s support. Another 7% said they were unsure who they would vote for.
Breaking Kennedy’s support down along party lines shows him with 6% support among Republicans, versus 3% of Democrats and 15% of independent voters.
The Deseret News/HarrisX poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Trump way out ahead, but Kennedy enjoys support of 15% of voters in Utah
In Utah, Trump is the clear front-runner whether just against Harris, or against both Harris and Kennedy.
In a head to head matchup against Harris, Trump garners 60% of the vote compared to 28% for Harris. Another 12% of voters say they’re unsure who they’ll vote for.
When facing just Harris, Trump enjoys support among majorities of men and women, young and older voters, white and Hispanic voters, and among Latter-day Saint voters. The few categories where he lags behind Harris includes voters who identify and liberal and those who are atheists or agnostics.
But while Trump is still well ahead when Kennedy is also on the ballot, Kennedy pulls more voters away from Trump than from Harris.
After visiting the state several times since announcing his independent presidential run, Kennedy has managed to garner the support 15% of Utah voters, according to the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll.
In a three-way race between Trump, Harris and Kennedy, Trump’s support drops to 51%, while Harris drops to 25%, and Kennedy captures 15%. Another 9% say they’re unsure.
Kennedy pulls some Republican voters from Trump, while eroding his support more significantly among independent voters.
Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, said if Kennedy drops out and endorses Trump it will be “welcome news for the GOP candidate in Utah and nationally.”
“Independent voters that support RFK are ambivalent about both Trump and Harris, and may yet shift, but today they are coming out of Trump‘s pocket marginally more than Harris’s, as reflected in our latest August Utah poll with the Hinkley Institute and Deseret News — 11 points from Trump and 7 points from Harris’ voter pool,” he said.
Nesho said a separate poll they conducted for Harvard University shows some of Kennedy’s voters could shift to other candidates based on his endorsement.
“Nationally, a poll we conducted with Harvard University in July suggests that RFK’s endorsement does sway about 10% of his base in either direction and can contribute up to 2 percent total vote share to either candidate — small, but potentially significant in such a tight race,” Nesho said.
Polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump since becoming the Democratic presidential nominee, a reversal from Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden—as Harris reaches the Democratic National Convention with an edge of three points or more, according to several new surveys.
Key Facts
Harris had a three-point advantage over Trump (46%-43%) in an Economist/YouGov poll of registered voters taken Aug. 17-20 and released Wednesday, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 3% and other candidates earning a negligible share—roughly similar to Harris’s 46%-44% lead about a week earlier.
Harris led Trump 48% to 44% in a Morning Consult poll of registered voters released Tuesday, up from a two-point edge by the same pollster last week, as Morning Consult shows independents picking Harris over Trump 42% to 38% as the vice president’s approval rating ticks up to 50% (the poll’s margin of error was 1 point, and voters were surveyed from Aug. 16 to 18).
Harris is leading Trump 49% to 45% among registered voters and 51% to 45% among likely voters, a poll by Ipsos, ABC News and The Washington Post said Sunday.
In a CBS and YouGov poll, also released Sunday, Harris has a three-point edge over Trump among likely voters (51% to 48%) leading into the Democratic National Convention this week, though the candidates are tied at 50% in battleground states.
Harris leads 50% to 46% in an Emerson College poll of 1,000 likely voters released Aug. 15.
Just one major poll in the last week, taken by Fox News and released Aug. 15, found Trump leading, 50% to 49% among registered voters.
Some 48% of registered voters polled by Monmouth University in a survey released Aug. 14 said they will definitely or probably vote for Harris in November, compared to 43% who said they would definitely or probably vote for Trump.
Harris leads in several other surveys taken this month: a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Aug. 8 found Harris leads 42% to 37%, and an NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released last Aug. 6 shows her polling 48% to 45% over Trump.
Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show Harris denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy.
Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
Big Number
1.5. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.9-point lead.
Surprising Fact
The Monmouth University poll found Democratic enthusiasm has nearly doubled since Harris’ entrance into the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stayed stagnant at 71%.
How Does Harris Perform Against Trump In Swing States?
Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Cook Political Report survey released Wednesday. Harris leads Trump in five of the seven states, is tied with him in Georgia and is trailing Trump by three points in Nevada, the Cook poll found.
Contra
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call that concluded last week. The following day, Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president at the start of the Republican National Convention on July 18. Democrats hold their convention next week, Aug. 19-22, in Chicago.
Former President Donald Trump has long had strong support from evangelical voters, but that doesn’t mean he’s running away with the Christian vote in the 2024 election.
Two new national surveys show that some of the country’s largest faith groups actually express somewhat similar levels of support for Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
A Deseret News/HarrisX national poll found that, if the 2024 presidential election were held today, 51% of Christians would vote for Trump, while 41% would vote for Harris.
That gap does widen if you zoom in on responses from evangelical Protestants (68% for Trump vs. 30% for Harris), but Harris is a more popular choice among non-evangelical Protestants (37% for Trump vs. 55% for Harris).
Additionally, the HarrisX research showed that Catholics are split between the two candidates, with 46% saying they’d vote for Trump if the election were held today and 46% saying they’d vote for Harris.
The new HarrisX poll was fielded from Aug. 2-3 among 1,011 registered voters. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, and it’s higher when you break out individual faith groups.
A new Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll identified similar trends, showing that Trump outperforms Harris among white Christians but not among Black or Hispanic Christians.
Seventy-eight percent of white evangelical Protestants in that poll said they would vote for Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, if the 2024 presidential election were held today, but that figure falls to 54% if you look at white mainline Protestants.
Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are much more popular than Trump and Vance among Black Protestants (89% vs. 9%) and slightly more popular than them among Hispanic Catholics (50% vs. 47%), according to the survey.
The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll was conducted from Aug. 9-13 among 1,975 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
What religion is Donald Trump?
Trump grew up Presbyterian, which is one of many mainline Protestant denominations, but began identifying as a nondenominational Christian while in the White House, as the Deseret News previously reported.
30
Comments
However, multiple surveys have shown that Christian support for Trump doesn’t primarily stem from him being seen as devout.
Instead, he’s been embraced because he’s seen as a defender of faith, someone who will use his power to protect religious institutions.
Fewer polls have been done about the faith-related appeal of Harris, since she only became the Democratic nominee for president within the past month.
She identifies as a Baptist, but she grew up attending Hindu temples in addition to Christian churches and married a Jewish man, Douglas Emhoff, as an adult, as the Deseret News previously reported.
While national polls show growing enthusiasm for Kamala Harris’ candidacy, a new Deseret News/HarrisX national poll shows continued pessimism toward the state of the country and the economy.
According to the poll, only 27% of U.S. voters say the country is on the right track, compared to 62% who say it is on the wrong track. When asked specifically about the U.S. economy, the figures are similar: 30% of U.S. voters say the economy is on the right track, while 61% say it is on the wrong track.
When asked what is the most important issue facing the country today, two of the most frequent responses dealt with the economy: price increases and inflation (30%) and the economy and jobs (26%). Immigration (30%) was also in the top three.
Such polling figures often reflect poorly on the incumbent administration. But Harris, three weeks into her campaign as the presumptive Democratic nominee, has so far managed to avoid the baggage that would traditionally accompany such an unpopular performance on the economy.
Harris unveiled parts of her economic plan during a speech Friday. She pledged to work with Congress to ban “price gouging” on food and groceries; proposed assistance for first-time homebuyers; and pledged a $6,000 tax credit for families with a child under the age of 1.
Many of Harris’ proposals mirror President Joe Biden’s 2020 policy agenda and the priorities of the Biden-Harris administration, like caps on prescription drug prices and providing health care subsidies.
And although the White House emphasized there “has not been any daylight” between Harris’ and Biden’s policy priorities over the past 3½ years, Harris’ approval rating in the poll outpaces Biden’s: 46% of respondents strongly or somewhat approve of the job Harris is doing, while only 40% approve of Biden’s performance.
During the four-day convention, that discrepancy will come into focus. Harris will either sell voters on the victories of the Biden-Harris administration, or she will convince them she is offering a new, better way.
So far, the Harris campaign has attempted to do both: she has continually called herself the “underdog” in the race and promised change, even as the Democratic platform still lists Biden’s name
Polls continue to show Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee—with the latest Morning Consult survey showing Harris up three points.
The vice president leads Trump 47% to 44% in Morning Consult’s latest poll released Monday, with 4% of registered voters surveyed selecting “someone else” and 4% saying they don’t know—the fourth week in a row Morning Consult’s weekly poll has shown Trump trailing Harris.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday found Harris leads 42% to 37% when voters are allowed to say they don’t know who they’ll vote for, a shift from Harris’ 37%-34% lead in late July—but the lead shifts to just 49%-47% in Harris’ favor when voters who are unsure are pressured to answer.
A YouGov/Economist survey released Wednesday also found Harris is up two points, 45% to 43%, with third-party candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., on the ballot (voters were also given the option to chose other, say they wouldn’t vote or weren’t sure).
Harris built a three-point lead over Trump in a NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday, polling 48% to 45% over Trump, though with a margin of error of 3.3 points, Trump remains in striking distance, while independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. falls well behind at 5%.
Harris also leads Trump by one point nationally in a CBS News poll released Sunday, in part because younger and Black voters said they’re more likely to vote and women indicated they believe Harris would favor their interests more (margin of error 2.1 points).
The CBS News poll—which was conducted July 30 through Aug. 2—also found Trump and Harris are locked in a tie among voters across the seven top battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada).
Trump leads Harris in at least eight other polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but most show her denting Trump’s lead over Biden and her approval rating ticking up since she announced her candidacy.
Trump led Harris by one point (48% to 47%) in a New York Times/Siena poll conducted July 22-24, two points (49% to 47%) in a July 23-25 Wall Street Journal poll and by two points (47% to 45%) in a HarrisX/Forbes online survey released June 26.
0.4. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a 2.8-point lead.
The New York Times/Siena poll found voters are more tuned into the race in the aftermath of the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, which was widely considered disastrous for Biden. Some 64% percent of respondents now say they’re paying a lot of attention to the contest, compared to 48% prior to the debate.
Harris leads Trump by one point overall in the seven battleground states likely to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a July 24-28 Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll. Harris is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada; Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina; and the two are tied in Georgia.
Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they were about Biden, the Times/Siena survey found, with nearly 80% of voters who lean Democratic saying they would like Harris to be the nominee, compared to 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago. In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden. A 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll found 87% of Americans agreed with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, and more Americans think the decision will help the Democratic Party (45%) than the Republican Party (29%). The 19th News survey also showed Americans are split on whether Harris’ gender and race will help or hurt her: 31% think being a woman will help her, compared to 33% who think it will hurt her and 34% who see no impact. Respondents were more optimistic that Harris being Black and Indian American will benefit her, with 32% seeing it as helpful compared to 24% seeing it as harmful—though 41% expected it to have no impact.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to reenergize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon,” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after earlier resisting growing calls from within his own party to end his reelection bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with all Democratic governors and the majority of Democrats in Congress backing her. She has effectively clinched the Democratic nomination as more than half of all delegates have announced plans to formally vote to nominate her—something the party is expected to do in the first week of August. An ABC News/Ipsos poll taken July 26-27 found Harris’ favorability rating has increased to 43%, from 35% in the groups’ previous poll taken July 19-20, while Trump’s favorability rating stands at 36% and Biden’s is at 37%.
Generative artificial intelligence has been at the heart of labor negotiations this past year, including the WGAand SAG-AFTRA bargaining that led to a historic double strike, as well as the recently ratified Basic Agreement with entertainment workers from art directors to editors.
Therefore, it’s no surprise that AI’s impact on Hollywood has emerged once again as a central issue as the Animation Guild (IATSE Local 839) — representing an estimated 5,000 artists, technicians, writers and production workers in the animation industry — begins bargaining with the AMPTP this week for a new contract.
A recent survey developed by VIP+ in collaboration with HarrisX and fielded online by HarrisX May 2-13, 2024, underscores the concern in this space. Asked to what extent generative AI will impact entertainment industry roles in the next two years, 55% of respondents expected major impact on animators and an additional 29% anticipated minor impact.
In preparation for its negotiations, TAG commissioned CVL Economics to conduct a survey on the impact of gen AI on entertainment industry jobs. (Conducted Nov. 17-Dec. 22, 2023, it surveyed 300 C-suite leaders, senior executives and mid-level managers.)
Three-fourths of the respondents indicated gen AI tools, software and/or models had already supported the elimination, reduction or consolidation of jobs in their business division. (They also said it had contributed to new job titles).
The survey forecast that about 21.4% of film, television and animation jobs (or approximately 118,500 positions) are likely to have a sufficient number of tasks affected to be either consolidated, replaced or eliminated by gen AI in the U.S. by 2026.
The guild is being tight-lipped about the specifics of its proposals, but president Jeanette Moreno King confirms includes language from WGA, SAG-AFTRA and/or IATSE wins to inform its bargaining plans, as well as new language more specific to TAG members.
The former presumably includes periodic meetings with parties during the terms of the agreement to discuss and review information related to producers’ use and intended use of AI, as well as agreement to indemnify employees from liability amid concerns about potential legal action surrounding copyrights.
Animation workers use various software tools that already incorporate some AI and machine learning capabilities, such as Adobe and Autodesk. The latter, for instance, recently announced a new ML Deformer for its Maya 3D software, developed to “enable artists to work with complex characters for animation, VFX and game projects.”
Meanwhile many companies are developing their own proprietary software. The rate at which AI tools are developing make it tricky to anticipate the precise speed of the impact on the animation business.
To kick off the negotiations, TAG held a Stand With Animation rally on Saturday. It had received a statement of solidarity from the DGA, IATSE, Teamsters, WGAE, WGAW, SAG-AFTRA and others.
Stagwell today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. The new poll found that after an unprecedented month in American politics that witnessed a failed assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden stepping aside in favor of Vice President Harris running as the Democratic candidate in November, the horserace has reset to a 3-point lead for Trump, 48% to 45%, with 7% still undecided.
Both Trump and Harris have benefited from a jump in favorability due to these events, now tied at 48% and 47% favorability, respectively. Nevertheless, with 24% of voters saying they could change their mind, the matchup is highly competitive.
"The Democratic Party has recovered from what was a Titanic — the iceberg of age was sinking them rapidly," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Kamala Harris has come with lifeboats to put the race back where it was."
The July poll covers public opinion on the candidates and the GOP policy platform coming out of the Republican National Convention. Download key results here.
HARRIS RE-ENERGIZES DEMOCRATS
79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down, and 55% approve of his endorsement of Harris including 92% of Democrats.
Compared to June, more Democrats say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (+5 points), and less Independents are unsure of who they would vote for (-10 points). Most of those undecided Independent voters say they would vote for Harris (Harris: +7 points; Trump: +3 points).
Harris performs better among minority voters with the support of a plurality of women (48%), Black (67%), and Hispanic (47%) voters.
24% of voters say they have not made up their mind on who they will vote for, including 20% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans, and 41% of Independents.
BIDEN'S DECISION TO STEP ASIDE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON APPROVAL RATINGS
Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%, up 2 points from June.
54% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president, up 2 points from June. Among minority voters, 53% of Hispanic voters and 40% of Black voters approve.
Across political parties, inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally. 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is worsening, especially among women (53%), Hispanic (51%), and rural (57%) voters.
65% of Black voters approve of the Democratic Party, while 59% of white voters and 52% of Hispanic voters disapprove.
HARRIS WINS ON PERSONALITY BUT IS SEEN AS CONTINUITY OF BIDEN, DIVERGING FROM ELECTORATE ON KEY POLICY PREFERENCES
Between the two candidates, more voters believe Harris has the right temperament, is more trustworthy, and is more honest, while more voters perceive Trump as a fighter and someone who will get things done.
67% of voters say Harris will continue Biden administration policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy. Roughly half believe she is politically aligned with Biden.
A majority of voters oppose open borders (67%), ending private healthcare options (68%), and mandating the replacement of gas cars with electric vehicles (72%) — but a majority believe Harris supports those policies (borders: 69%; healthcare: 53%; electric vehicles: 72%).
Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Harris.
MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT GOP PLATFORM COMING OUT OF THE CONVENTION
A majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives like protecting social security and Medicare, ending inflation, and stopping violence and crime, including over 89% of Republicans and over 79% of Independents across every policy issue.
33% of voters think the Republican Party left out abortion from its policy platform because the party believes it is a state decision. A plurality of Democratic (31%), 18-24 year-old (23%), and Black (24%) voters believe the party has a secret plan to ban abortion.
45% of voters and 76% of Republicans approve of J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, but roughly half of voters say the selection has no impact on their vote.
VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL IN THE FACE OF HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS, WANT GAZA TO BE ADMINISTERED BY ARAB NATIONS
66% of voters believe Israel should retaliate if Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into the north (age 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 82%).
82% of voters say Hamas should be removed from power in Gaza, consistent with June sentiment.
A plurality of voters (38%) think Gaza should be administered by a new authority set up through negotiations with Arab nations.
The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted within the United States on July 26-28, 2024, among 2,196 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.
About The Harris Poll & HarrisX
The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.
HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.
Kamala Harris’ favorability among American voters rose significantly in the week since she declared she would run to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president, an ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday shows, while Donald Trump's favor has fallen—as the race between Trump and Harris tightens since Biden dropped out.
The poll, which sampled 1,200 adults on Friday and Saturday with a margin of error of 3 percentage points, found Harris' overall favorability rose from 35% to 43% over an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted over the same period a week earlier.
Trump, however, saw his favorability drop from 40% to 36% from the week before, which was measured soon after an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally and during the Republican National Convention.
Harris' unfavorability rating dropped four points—from 46% to 42%—meaning slightly more Americans now view her positively, and Trump's slightly rose from 51% to 52%.
Both candidates also saw significant movement among independent voters: 44% of independents have a favorable view of Harris this week (up from 28%) and Trump's favorability in the group fell from 35% to 27%.
Some 48% of Americans said they would be enthusiastic if Harris wins the Democratic nomination for president, while 39% say they are enthusiastic about Trump being the Republican nominee.
Harris and Trump have been virtually tied in recent polls with the race continuing to tighten—a major shakeup from just a week prior, when Trump appeared to open up a lead against Biden. A Wall Street Journal poll Friday with a 3.1-point margin of error showed Harris trailing Trump 47% to 49% and a HarrisX/Forbes online survey found 44% of voters have a favorable view of each candidate. In key swing states, Harris is trailing Trump by single-digit margins, new polls by Emerson College show. Trump leads Harris in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania with a virtual tie in Wisconsin.
Former President Donald Trump’s lead in the presidential race narrowed considerably in the latest HarrisX/Forbes survey released Friday, showing his advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris at two points—much less than the eight-point lead he had last week over President Biden, who dropped out and made Harris his presumptive replacement.
The HarrisX/Forbes online poll of over 3,000 registered voters (margin of error +/- 1.8) finds Harris trailing behind Trump 45% to 47% (9% undecided), though when including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead narrows to one point, with Harris trailing 42% to 43% behind Trump, and Kennedy securing 9% of the vote (6% undecided).
Among the 689 respondents who identify as political independents, Trump leads 42%-40%, while Harris maintains a significant lead in such key demographics as suburban women (52%-40%), African-American men (57%-30%), African-American women (77%-13%), and white respondents with a college degree (49%-46%).
The poll was conducted between Monday—the day after Biden ended his re-election campaign following mounting concerns from within his own party over his advanced age and mental acuity—and Wednesday.
It’s an upswing for Democrats, after a HarrisX/Forbes poll last week (July 19-July 21) showed Trump leading Biden 48%-40% (12% undecided)—Trump led Biden 43%-34% when Kennedy (14%) was included (8% undecided).
When asked if respondents have a favorable view on Harris, 44% said yes, compared to 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% for Biden, 36% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 34% for Trump running mate JD Vance.
Asked who they would have voted for before Biden dropped out of the race, only 36% said they would have voted for Biden compared to 43% for Trump. Most voters supported Biden’s decision to step down, with 73% saying Biden “listened to voters” by dropping out.
Just under one-quarter of respondents identified as liberal, with 38% identifying as conservative and 38% calling themselves moderates, 46% said they voted for Trump in the 2020 election, and 51% said they voted for Biden.
Trump’s lead on Harris is now 2-percentage points among RegisteredVoters and 3-percent with Likely Voters
Harris has consolidated the Democratic base, winning back lapsed independent and suburban women, and nearly half of previously undecided voters; She continues to struggle with African American men.
Electoral race is fluid as one-in-four voters say they could still change their mind.
A new poll released today by HarrisX and Forbes shows a newly competitive race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump. Forty-seven percent of registered voters support Trump while 45% say they would vote for Harris. Among likely voters, the former president leads Harris 49% to 46%.
That marks a significant change in the race. Immediately prior to President Joe Biden stepping aside, Trump was leading Biden by 8 percentage points among registered voters (48% to 40%) and 10 points among likely voters (49% to 39%). Trump was also leading Harris by nine percentage points (50% to 41%) among registered voters and by a double-digit margin among likely voters (51% to 40%). The vice president has now narrowed the gap, in large part by winning 46% of voters who were undecided when the choice was between Biden and Trump.
The HarrisX/Forbes poll, which was conducted July 22-25, 2024 among 3,013 registered voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll, shows Harris surging with independent voters and suburban women (full data available at elections.harrisx.com). While Biden was losing independents to Trump by a 13-percentage point margin (31% to 44%), Harris trails just by two percentage points (40% toTrump’s 42%). Among suburban women, the vice president leads Trump by 12-percentage points (52% to 40%) compared to just a 3-percentage point lead held by President Biden (44% to Trump’s 41%).
Additionally, Harris has quickly consolidated the Biden base, with 95% of voters who had planned to support Biden sticking with the vice president. Only 3% of Biden voters are now planning to vote for Trump. However, the new presumptive Democratic nominee continues to struggle with African American men, winning just 57% of this key group, compared to 30% of Black men who plan to support Donald Trump.
The data shows the race can still change significantly. One in four (25%) registered voters, including 23% of Harris supporters and 17% of Trump voters say they are still weighing their choices for the November election.
“Kamala Harris has officially reset the race, erasing much of Donald Trump’s post-convention gains. Harris is still behind Trump, and it will take time for the numbers to fully settle, but one thing is clear: almost a week after Biden’s decision to step aside, it’s now again a competitive race,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX and lead pollster. “Vice President Harris has energized the Democratic base, growing the lead with suburban women and closing the gap with independents; but she is still struggling with African American men, and Trump overall still has a more consolidated base of voters.”
“Voters, however, do not know the new Democratic nominee as well as they know Mr. Trump. That presents an opportunity and a threat to the Harris campaign, depending on whether she moves to the center to win swing and moderate voters, or moves to the left of Biden to appease the Democratic base,” added Nesho.
The close race is also reflected by the fact that the two candidates have nearly identical favorability ratings. Trump and Harris are each viewed favorably by 44% of the electorate while 50% view the former president unfavorably and 49% say the same about the vice president. However, suburban women like Harris (49% favorable – 43% unfavorable) significantly more than Trump (36% favorable – 59% unfavorable).
The data shows a broad consensus that President Biden did the right thing by stepping aside, with 81% of voters approving of his decision. That includes strong majorities of Democrats (90%),independents (79%) and Republicans (75%). Similarly, Democrats are overwhelmingly supportive of Biden endorsing his VP (90% approve). However, only just half (54%) of independents and merely 22% of Republicans approve of the endorsement.
Just 27% of voters say that Biden’s withdrawal is undemocratic ignores the will of the 14 million Democratic primary voters. Instead, 89% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 58% of Republicans say the president’s withdrawal demonstrates that Biden was listening to voters and the recent polling that was showing most Democrats wanting the incumbent to drop out.
HarrisX data is tracked and updated daily at elections.harrisx.com.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online within the United States July 22-25, 2024, among 3,013 registered voters via theHarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand fhe sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.
The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology and area type where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 1.8 percentage points.
About HarrisX & the HarrisX Overnight Poll
HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and voter research across the U.S. and over 40countries. With offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto,HarrisX advises Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and philanthropic organizations. According to The WashingtonPost and American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll runs 365 days a year in the United States as an omnibus survey; for more information email OvernightPoll@Harrisx.com
About Forbes: Forbes champions success by celebrating those who have made it, and those who aspire to make it. Forbes convenes and curates the most influential leaders and entrepreneurs who are driving change, transforming business and making a significant impact on the world. The Forbes brand today reaches more than 140million people worldwide through its trusted journalism, signature LIVE and Forbes Virtual events, custom marketing programs and 43 licensed local editions in 69 countries. Forbes Media’s brand extensions include real estate, education and financial services license agreements.
Trump leads Harris by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey taken July 22-23; by two points, 47% to 45%, in a Morning Consult poll; and by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
Harris is up 44% to 42% over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, and leads by four points (42%-38%) in a hypothetical matchup with Trump when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (8%) is on the ballot.
Meanwhile, an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sunday to Tuesday showed Trump leading Harris 44% to 41% and Kennedy with 5%.
Ipsos and Reuters’ previous poll taken July 15-16 found Harris and Trump tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll found Trump led by one point—though it’s unclear how polls taken when Harris was still only a hypothetical candidate will differ from those taken after she became the likely nominee.
The CNN/SSRS survey and Morning Consult polls also found Harris performs better than Biden against Trump—Biden trailed Trump by six points in Morning Consult surveys taken before he exited the race and by six points in CNN/SSRS surveys taken in April and June.
In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden.
NPR/PBS/Marist also found 87% of respondents think Biden’s decision to drop out of the race was the right thing to do, while 41% of voters, including 65% of Democrats, think it increases the party’s chances of winning in November.
Most polls taken prior to Biden ending his bid found the president and Harris performing roughly the same against Trump, who had slightly expanded his narrow lead over Biden in the wake of Biden’s disastrous June debate performance. A Forbes/HarrisX poll conducted July 19-21 showed Trump leading both Biden and Harris by six points, a two-point jump in his lead over Harris and a four-point increase in his lead over Biden since the groups’ previous poll conducted July 13-15. A Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted July 19-22 found Trump and Harris tied in a head-to-head matchup, and Harris trailing by two points in a six-way race with third-party candidates on the ballot. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week showed Trump leading Harris by three points and Biden by five. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 13-16 found Biden would lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris would perform slightly worse, losing to Trump 39% to 44%.
1.9. That’s how many points Trump leads Harris by in Real Clear Politics’ polling average, which includes the Morning Consult poll and nine others conducted before Biden dropped out. The average does not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday. Trump led Biden by 3.1 points as of Sunday, when Biden dropped out of the race, a 1.6-point increase from June 27, the day of the debate, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average.
Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a “short term” bump in polls for Harris in the coming weeks as her entrance into the race is expected to re-energize Democrats, referring to the anticipated boost as a “Harris Honeymoon,” in a memo released shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was made public.
Biden dropped out of the race Sunday after resisting growing calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid in the wake of the June 27 debate. Prior to dropping out, Biden trailed Trump by 3.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average, a 1.6-point jump since the debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party has quickly coalesced around her, with all Democratic governors and the majority of Democrats in Congress backing her. On Monday, she effectively clinched the Democratic nomination as more than half of all delegates have announced plans to formally vote to nominate her—something the party is expected to do in the first week of August.
As Donald Trump prepares to address an estimated 20,000 bitcoin enthusiasts later this week in Nashville, Tennessee, the pro-crypto Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming is also looking to make some big news, preparing to announce she's crafting new legislation that could radically alter the burgeoning crypto business by firmly establishing bitcoin as a mainstream financial asset, FOX Business has learned.
According to three crypto executives with knowledge of the bill, Lummis has been quietly working to announce at the annual Bitcoin Conference legislation that would require the Federal Reserve to hold some bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Lummis’ plan, as this story goes to press, remains in flux and an announcement could be delayed. But people who have been in direct contact with some of Lummis’ staff say she is hoping to announce her intentions on Saturday at the conference, just before Trump's scheduled speech; her staff hopes Trump will endorse the bill and the idea behind it.
These people say that she could also choose to announce the bill during a fireside chat on Friday afternoon moderated by former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who is now supporting Trump’s attempt to retake the White House.
News of the bill hasn't been publicly reported, but Lummis has been teasing a big announcement on her X account this week, writing, "Big things are in store this week. Stay tuned!"
While specifics of the legislation are unclear, the purpose of the bill, according to a person who has seen initial drafts, intends to direct the Fed to buy bitcoin and hold it as a reserve asset in the same way that the nation’s central bank holds gold and foreign currencies to help manage the U.S. monetary system and keep the value of the U.S. dollar stable.
Lummis has been quietly shopping the bill to some of her colleagues on the Senate Banking Committee to get them signed on as co-sponsors, this person says.
"Having the Fed hold bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset would be a momentous move that brings stability to the U.S. dollar and our capital markets," said Alex Chizhik, chief commercial officer at HarrisX. "It also sends a loud signal that our central bank is embracing innovation and as an independent body, is the natural nonpartisan home for bitcoin."
The implementation of bitcoin as a reserve asset would take the support of the president and Congress, which is no easy lift given the skepticism in political and economic circles over the efficacy of digital coins as a financial asset. The $2 trillion crypto industry has been beset by fraud; many mainstream economists are leery of its use as a store of value.
Still, even the introduction of legislation – and Trump's possible support – classifying bitcoin as a reserve asset would be an admission from the top levels of government that bitcoin is a legitimate financial asset, something the crypto industry has been aiming for in its quest for mainstream acceptance.
"Classifying the world’s largest cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve asset would be the firing gun in the ‘Bitcoin Space Race,’" said Sam Lyman, director of public policy at bitcoin miner Riot Platforms. "If the United States – the wealthiest country in the world and the home of global capital – began accumulating bitcoin on its balance sheet, other countries would have powerful incentives to do the same."
The U.S. is already the biggest nation-state holder of bitcoin, so it has a strong head start. It currently holds around 210,000 bitcoins with a current value of just over $66,000 per token, due to the Department of Justice seizing large sums from illicit actors over the years.
"This would send the nation-state game theory into hyperdrive as sovereigns scramble to accumulate the scarcest monetary asset on planet Earth," Lyman added.
A spokeswoman for Lummis had no comment for this story; a Trump campaign spokesperson did not return requests for comment.
The conference, which is slated to feature other big names like MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., comes amid the tumult of the national political scene, and both parties mining voters that own crypto in what appears to be a close election for the presidency in November.
President Biden's withdrawal from the race has catapulted Vice President Kamala Harris as the likely Democratic Party nominee. While Harris has a lot on her plate – including picking her running mate – pro-crypto Democrats such as tech billionaire Mark Cuban have been advising her campaign to soften relations with the crypto industry, which has been under intense scrutiny from the Biden administration's regulatory regime.
Harris declined to make an appearance at the Bitcoin Conference following talks with conference organizers, people with knowledge of the matter say.
But she seems open to the prospect of courting crypto holders, Democratic Party insiders say, given that they represent some 50 million potential voters and many of them are apolitical except when it comes to protecting their investments.
A Harris press representative had no immediate comment.
Republicans have already seized the high ground with the crypto industry; Ramaswamy, the former GOP presidential candidate and now Trump acolyte, has been courting the industry for months. Trump has done the same and in his scheduled appearance on Saturday he is slated to promote the promises made in his party’s platform, including promoting bitcoin mining, the right to self-custody of digital assets and renouncing the creation of a central bank digital currency, or CBDC.
Lummis herself is a bitcoin investor. She has been referred to as the Senate’s "Crypto Queen,'' and is a proponent of using bitcoin to strengthen the country’s financial position.
In 2022, she floated the idea of diversifying the Fed’s $40 billion worth of foreign currencies with bitcoin, highlighting that the asset’s decentralized nature would make it more "ubiquitous" over time. In an interview with FOX Business' Larry Kudlow earlier this month, she raised the idea of having bitcoin in reserve, saying that it could help support the strength of the dollar.
It's unclear how Trump, once a bitcoin skeptic, views the notion of it as a potential reserve asset or whether he’ll endorse it. A person who has reviewed the draft legislation of Lummis’ bill says a big selling point is that it would help strengthen the U.S. dollar, which is now backed by the full faith and credit of the country's taxing authority, as opposed to any hard asset.
Still, the move could be controversial. Adding crypto to the mix, some say, could weaken the value of gold, a major underpinning of the U.S. economy. Crypto skeptics worry that bitcoin’s volatile tendencies could prove difficult for the Fed to effectively implement it as a hedge against economic headwinds.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randy Quarles has said the central bank needs to move toward making Treasurys the entirety of its balance sheet to avoid what he called "a slippery slope" of using the Fed’s balance sheet to politically allocate credit.
As of June, the Fed’s balance sheet stands at a whopping $7.3 trillion, which includes Treasurys, foreign currency holdings and gold, among other assets.
"There’s no safer investment than the U.S. Treasury, so I don’t really understand why we would need to hold bitcoin as a strategic reserve," Steve Moore, an economist and former Trump adviser, said in a statement to FOX Business. "I guess a positive is that it would be a good way for the government to diversify its assets."
Ramaswamy floated a similar idea of backing the U.S. dollar with what he described as a "basket of commodities" that could include bitcoin to combat inflation that was raging during the early years of the Biden administration. Kennedy, another bitcoin proponent, suggested a similar approach that was met with pushback from crypto industry skeptics who said it would represent an unrealistic return to the gold standard that the U.S. abandoned in 1971.
While the notion of using bitcoin as a potential strategic reserve asset is not new, there is a new groundswell of support for mainstreaming the digital asset. Bitcoin received a powerful endorsement from Wall Street, when Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock and the world's largest money manager, changed his position from opponent to staunch proponent. Fink, who once called bitcoin an "index of money laundering," now refers to it as "digital gold" and a "long-term store of value," as the firm launched a bitcoin exchange-traded fund earlier this year. Since the fund’s launch, it’s attracted nearly $19.5 billion in investor funds.
Trump has been a recent convert as well.
"If we don’t do it, China is going to pick it up," Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg last week when describing his recent embrace of digital assets. "I don’t want to be responsible for allowing another country to take over this sphere."
Crypto holders, meanwhile, would likely see a big payday if Lummis’ bill were to become law. Because there’s only a fixed amount of income in supply, any entity buying large quantities of bitcoin could drive up the price of the asset in a relatively short amount of time.
"In price terms, strategic bitcoin adoption really does imply a potentially stratospheric rise as the stakes in the market will be vastly more powerful in fiscal terms," Philipp Pieper, co-founder of Swarm Markets, told FOX Business.
It’s unclear how Lummis’ bill will be received by her congressional colleagues. Passing such legislation would depend largely upon the makeup of the House and Senate, as well as who wins the White House in November.
Democrats' enjoyment of the Kamala Harris campaign's "new car smell" may prove short-lived, as a brand new poll shows the vice president trailing former President Trump by a whopping 11 points among likely voters -- matching up even worse than President Biden, who trailed by 10.
TheForbes/HarrisX survey was conducted July 19-21 -- that's after the Republican convention but before Biden was forced to withdraw from the race.
“Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump," said HarrisX chief pollster Dritan Nesho.
“If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’ That said, Vice President Harris alleviates concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway undecided independents and suburban women, showing some promise.”
In an ominous note for the Harris campaign, aside from her worse margin against Trump, in her head-to-head matchup, fewer voters were undecided than they were in a Biden-Trump scenario. Among likely voters, Trump led Biden 49%-39% with 12% undecided. However, versus Harris, Trump led 51%-40%, with 9% undecided.
"Democrats are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire," Trump campaign senior advisor Jason Miller told Fox News. "They may have gotten rid of one problem with Joe Biden, but they've inherited a whole new problem with Kamala Harris."
Continuing a well-established trend, Harris's job-approval rating is as bad as Biden's: both scored a dismal 38% approval. She did a little better than Biden among younger voters, with 42% of those between age 18 and 34 approving of her performance, compared to 36% for Biden.
So far, there are few single-state polls gauging a Trump-Harris contest, and none that were taken since she became the presumptive nominee. While the numbers are bound to change after Americans are subjected to a Harris-friendly media blitz, they still give some insight into where she's starting from:
An Atlanta-Journal Constitution poll has Trump winning Georgia by 4.6% over Harris, compared to 3.5% over Biden.
In a result that shows Democrats clearly on the defensive on the 2024 chessboard, a New Hampshire Journal poll has Trump up 0.9% in Granite State -- where the GOP hasn't won in 24 years.
Conversely, Harris is polling worse than Biden in Nevada, losing to Trump by 10%.
The results are sure to grind the gears of the many Democratic mega-donors who favored a "mini-primary" to select Biden's replacement atop the 2024 ticket, rather than simply coronating Harris, a demonstrably terrible candidate who didn't even make it to the Iowa caucuses in 2020.
After a seismic shift atop the Democratic presidential ticket, the likely new nominee faces some of the same problems the current president does.
While Kamala Harris is likely much less prone than Joe Biden to show cognitive issues by mixing up names and losing track of what she’s saying, she’s still got to find a way to make up ground against Donald Trump in the next 104 days.
A HarrisX/Forbes poll released Monday (but conducted July 19 to 21, the day Biden left the campaign) has Trump in blowout territory, leading Harris 50% to 41% overall and 51% to 40% among likely voters.
“Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost [double] digits in our polling,” commented Dritan Nesho, HarrisX CEO and chief pollster. “If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’”
That survey isn’t the only one with red flags for the blue team.
One On Point Politics/SoCal Research Sunday survey shows Trump with majority support, leading Harris 51% to 43% in one of the first national polls conducted after Biden left the race.
While the poll had a +2 Republican lean in sampling (with 38% of respondents being GOP versus 36% Democrat), other data should worry Democrats — including 24% of respondents saying they’re more likely to support Trump with Biden out, against just 18% less likely to do so.
The Trump camp spotlighted this survey along with a slew of Trump-Harris trial heats in its favor ahead of Biden deciding not to run, saying in an email to press that “even if Democrat Party insiders and donors are able to successfully anoint disgraced border czar Kamala Harris as the new nominee — disenfranchising millions of Democrat primary voters in the process — it won’t save them.”
But not all polling is bad for Harris.
A Quinnipiac poll released Monday shows a too-close-to-call race, with Trump up 45% to 41% in a six-way run including minor candidates. To put that in perspective, Trump was up by 5 points against Biden in the same scenario.
“The dramatic reset at the top of the Democratic ticket does little to move the race as Vice President Harris enters the fray with numbers similar to President Biden,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.
A Morning Consult survey released Monday shows a 47% to 45% lead for Trump, a more positive look for Dems than the 6-point lead Trump had over Biden, even though just 65% of Democrats support her to lead the ticket.
That’s better than what a Sunday survey from YouGov showed. In that poll, 60% of Democrats say the Californian should be the party’s presidential nominee, with 21% of Democrats wanting someone else and 19% not sure what they want.
These numbers have room for improvement, especially given that most Republican registrants have coalesced around Trump amid months of lawfare against him and his survival of an assassination attempt this month. If Harris can’t unify the party, she can’t win. And she hasn’t gotten it done yet despite help from most of the Dem establishment.
Single-state polling is beginning to surface that includes at least some sampling from after Biden left the race, and it doesn’t show Harris delivering just yet. If the election were held today, she would lose at least two states Biden won in 2020.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution survey released shortly after Biden left the race showed Trump leading Harris, 50.5% to 45.9%. Trump’s lead over Harris was more than the 3.5% advantage he had over the current president in the same sample.
And the poll suggests Harris is a turnoff among key demographics Democrats will rely on in the Peach State.
Among nonblack minorities (Asians and Hispanics), Trump leads the veep by 12 points — as compared with a more modest 3.8% lead he had with the same demographics against Biden in the same sample.
Harris also performs worse among women than Biden against Trump, carrying her own gender with a 7.4% margin, while Biden had a 9-point lead.
Meanwhile, Republicans last won New Hampshire in 2000 — but polling conducted between July 19 and 21 suggests they have at least an even shot this year in the Granite State.
The New Hampshire Journal poll released Sunday shows Trump ahead of Harris, albeit marginally — 40.2% to 39.3%, with an additional 20.5% favoring Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the Live Free or Die State.
Former President Donald Trump expanded his lead in the 2024 race in the days following the Republican National Convention, according to a new online Forbes/HarrisX survey—but it's still unclear whether President Joe Biden's seismic decision Sunday to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris will shake up the election.
Trump led both Biden and Harris by six points (53% to 47%) in the July 19-21 survey, a two-point jump in Trump’s lead over Harris and a four-point increase in his lead over Biden since a July 13-15 poll taken immediately after the assassination attempt against Trump (the polls included respondents who were undecided but leaning toward one candidate).
The July 19-21 poll was taken before Biden bowed out of the race, so Harris was still a hypothetical candidate in the survey, which polled 2,753 registered voters (margin of error 1.9 points).
Harris trails Trump by nine points in the latest survey when respondents were given the option to choose “don’t know/unsure,” a two-point increase for Trump from polls taken July 13-15 and June 28-30 that include undecided voters and show Trump leading Harris by seven points.
Biden trails Trump by eight points in the July 19-21 poll when respondents were given the option to choose “undecided.”
A plurality of voters (46%) said Trump’s RNC speech—in which he stuck to his usual talking points on immigration, election fraud and his baseless claims that his legal woes amounted to Democrat-backed political persecution—had no impact on their voting preference, while 22% said it made them less likely to vote for him and 33% said it make them more likely to back him.
Among independent voters, 28% said it made them more likely to back Trump and 19% said it made them less likely, while 5% of Republicans said they were less likely to support Trump after the speech and 9% of Democrats said they were more likely.
BIG NUMBER
38%. That’s the approval rating for both Biden and Harris, according to the July 19-21 poll.
CONTRA
Harris has a higher approval rating among young Democrats, ages 18-34, and Hispanic Democrats, two groups who Biden has lost support among since the 2020 election, according to polls. Harris’ approval rating among Hispanic Democrats stands at 68% versus Biden’s 62%, while her approval rating among young Democrats is 62%, versus 55% for Biden.
TANGENT
Harris’ performance in the HarrisX/Forbes poll is similar to her standing in other polls taken in the aftermath of Biden’s June 27 debate performance showing Trump with a narrow lead over both Biden and Harris, with some polls showing Harris performing better than Biden against Trump and others showing her performing worse. A CBS News/YouGov poll taken July 16-18 found Trump led Harris by three points (51%-48%) and Biden by five (52%-47%) and a July 13-16 Economist/YouGov poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points and Harris by five.
KEY BACKGROUND
Trump has widened his narrow lead over Biden in the wake of their consequential June 27 debate that sparked a Democratic revolt against Biden, culminating with his announcement Sunday that he was dropping out of the race. Biden endorsed Harris and she quickly announced she would run to replace him. While Democrats are in turmoil, Trump has notched several wins since the debate, including surviving an assassination attempt, accepting his party’s nomination for a third time on Thursday and persuading a judge to dismiss the federal case accusing him of mishandling classified documents. Trump’s speech on Thursday—the longest in RNC history that broke his own record set at the 2016 convention—quickly diverted from his promised message of “unity.” After beginning the speech by briefly recounting the assassination attempt against him, Trump reverted back to attacking Democrats, calling former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., “crazy” and alleging the “10 worst presidents in the history of the United States . . . they will not have done the damage that Biden has done.”
HarrisX/ Forbes Poll: Trump Gains Momentum Post Republican Convention, More Than Doubles Lead Against Biden and Harris
Poll was conducted after Donald Trump’s RNC Speech, but before President Biden’s announcement he won’t seek reelection
Vice President Harris performs similarly to President Biden but is better able to sway undecided voters and alleviates concerns among the democratic base
GOP has doubled its congressional ballot performance downrange, now winning 44% to 39% for the Democrats
Washington, D.C. (07/22/2024) – A national survey released today by HarrisX and Forbes Breaking News shows former President Donald J. Trump more than doubling his lead over both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention (RNC). The poll, taken before Biden officially dropped out of the race, indicates Trump leading Biden among registered voters 48%-40%, up from 45%-42% prior to RNC, and leading Harris 50% to 41%.
Among likely November voters, Trump’s lead increases to double digits: 49%-39% against Biden, with 12% undecided and 51%-40% against Harris, with 9% as undecided voters.
The poll, which was conducted July 19-21, 2024 with 2,753 registered voters, also shows that voters expect Trump to win in November. Nearly two in three (65%) expected him to win against Biden and nearly as many (63%) say he would win against Harris.
“Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost digits in our polling,” commented Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, on the findings. “If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’ That said, Vice President Harris alleviates concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway undecided independents and suburban women, showing some promise.”
C.W. Benston, VP of ForbesTV, added: The Forbes Newsroom is committed to bringing its audience real-time, actionable and accurate intelligence on the state of markets and the economy, politics and the 2024 election, and momentous events like this past weekend. That’s why we have partnered with Dritan and HarrisX, the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential cycle, to present an anchored, data-driven view of the world to our audiences.”
Other results from the HarrisX/ Forbes poll include:
VOTERS SHOW POSITIVE REACTIONS TO DONALD TRUMP’S RNC SPEECH
Trump's RNC speech broke through with voters. 78% percent watched or heard about the speech, including 87% of Republicans, 74% of Democrats and 72% of Independents.
Among those aware of Trump’s RNC speech, a slight majority (56%) reacted favorably to it. However, voters were divided on whether the speech was uniting (52%) or divisive (48%).
One-in-three (33%) voters said the speech made them more likely to vote for the former president compared to 22% who said it made them less likely to support the Republican candidate. Nearly half (46%) said it made make no impact on their vote. Among Independent voters 52% said it made no impact on their vote, 19% said it made them less likely to support Trump while 28% said they were more likely to vote for him.
VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS POLLS SIMILARLY TO BIDEN PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT
The poll also shows that prior to Biden’s announcement to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Harris, Harris was performing similarly to President Biden across key metrics.
President Biden’s job approval is at 38%, the same as those who say they approve of the job Harris has been doing as Vice President. Both Biden and Harris are also seen unfavorably by a majority of voters (58% and 53% respectively).
However, Harris shows slightly higher job approval among young voters (18-34) at 42% versus Biden's 36% and Hispanic (42% vs. 38%). Independent voters also appear to lean more towards Harris than Biden, with 29% of independents saying they are leaning towards support her over Trump versus 28% leaning towards Biden over Trump.
GOP DOUBLES ITS LEAD IN THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
Republicans lead Democrats by 5 percentage points (44% to 39%) in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters, and 8 percentage points (49% to 41%) among likely voters.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online within the United States from July 19th – July 21st, 2024, among 2,753 registered voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.
The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology and area type where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 1.9 percentage points.
About HarrisX
HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll runs 365 days a year in the United States as an omnibus survey; for more information email OvernightPoll@Harrisx.com
About Forbes Breaking News
Forbes Breaking News is a premier source for up-to-the-minute news coverage, delivering the latest headlines on politics, business, technology, and more. As part of Forbes Media, Forbes Breaking News provides reliable, real-time information to keep the public informed on key issues shaping the world today.
On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed new polling showing voters' feelings towards Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), former President Trump's choice of his 2024 running mate.
MoffettNathanson's latest quarterly SVOD report shows the Apple platform lagging behind other major U.S. subscription streaming services
More than a year after the last episode of its only signature hit, Ted Lasso, dropped, Apple TV Plus continues to run in place, quietly used by only around 11% of U.S. streaming households, according to the latest quarterly All Things Streaming report from MoffettNathanson.
The equity research firm, along with HarrisX, interviewed around 8,500 U.S. household decision-makers, determining usage of Apple TV Plus remains flat and is falling behind most of the other major U.S. subscription video-on-demand services.
Approaching the fifth anniversary of its launch in early November, Apple TV Plus has never had an official subscriber count published.
(Image credit: MoffettNathanson)
The fastest riser right now remains Peacock, which is now used by around 21% of U.S. households, surpassing Warner Bros. Discovery’s moribund Max.
Also increasing quickly in usage is Paramount Plus, which now narrowly trails Disney Plus in reported household consumption.
Peacock also seems to rising in regular engagement, based on this graphic that tracks frequent household usage.
(Image credit: MoffettNathanson)
Peacock ended Q2 with around 34 million subscribers, up by about 10 million users year over year.
Streaming penetration increased in the second quarter despite services pulling back on original content, according to a new report from MoffettNathanson media analyst Michael Nathanson.
In his All Things Streaming update, Nathanson said Netflix’s efforts to crack down on password-sharing appear to be paying off, and that he is raising his forecast for how many subscribers the platrform added for the quarter by 500,000 to 5.5 million, ahead of the streamer reporting its earnings on Thursday. The increase includes gains in North America.
The analyst also raised his estimate for Netflix’s second-quarter earnings to $22.35 a share from $22.25 a share and his target price for Netflix stock by $35 to $565 a share.
Using data from polling firm HarrisX, Nathanson said that during the quarter, streaming penetration edged up to 85% and usage increased as well for all of the key streaming services.
The biggest gainer in penetration was Comcast NBCUniversal’s Peacock, which rose to 21%. The smallest gainers were Apple TV Plus and Disney’s Hulu.
Daily usage of streaming services was also up for all of the services except Disney Plus and Warner Bros. Discovery's Discovery Plus.
The average number of streaming services per household rose to 4 from 3.8 and the average number of streaming services watched increased to 4.2 from 4.1.
“On the one hand, we expect in time this number to start ticking down as the streaming space rationalizes and consolidates, the increasing prevalence of bundles may keep users subscribed to a multitude of services well into the future,” Nathanson said.
Nathanson said that Netflix widened its lead over the other streamers during the quarter with 40% of its subscribers using the service daily. Paramount Global's Paramount Plus and WBD's Max also showed substantial gains in daily usage.
The streaming gains came as they released less content.
Netflix released 92 original seasons, down from 97 a year ago, according to the report.
“Two years ago, Netflix released a flurry of originals each quarter to find the select few shows that would break out,“ Nathanson said. “Now the market has shifted to allow the company to drive an increasingly large share of its viewership with its competitors’ content.
“This is reflected in acquired titles (and especially nonexclusive acquired titles) rapidly increasing share of the list of top streamed titles,“ he added. “Only two of 2Q24’s top 20 most streamed titles this quarter were an original.”
Most of the other big streamers followed suit by releasing less content in the second quarter. Peacock was the exception, releasing the same number of new original seasons in Q2 as it did a year ago.
Looking at the increase in nonexclusive titles streaming on multiple services, Nathanson noted this is something Netflix has grown increasingly comfortable with.
“It has seen time and again that a top acquired title, even if available elsewhere, can still be a top performer,” he said.
“Whether success on Netflix trickles back to the licensee is to be seen; popularity on Netflix seems to elevate what were previously second-tier titles such as Suitsand Warrior but likely has a more muted impact on already popular titles such as Young Sheldon,” he said. “Still, this arrangement will likely only continue to increase in popularity as companies seek out increased licensing revenues.”
In the HarrisX survey, the number of people citing cost as the reason for cutting the cord declined, while the share mentioning content as a motivation increased, particular for Hulu, which streamed Shōgun and The Bear in the quarter.
As the number of people who have streaming services increased in the quarter, so did the percentage of people with both pay TV and streaming, which rose to 35% from 32% in Q1.
Originally published by By James Bickerton, US News Reporter, on Newsweek Jul 06, 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. Read the article here.
Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris in a hypothetical presidential contest between the two would be cut significantly if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also a candidate, according to a new survey.
The HarrisX poll of 1,500 registered voters found that in a straight matchup 49 percent would vote for Trump, 42 percent for Harris, with another nine percent unsure, giving the Republican a seven-point lead.
However, if Kennedy is also included as an independent candidate, Trump's lead falls to just four points with him on 42 percent, against 38 percent for Harris, 15 percent for Kennedy and six percent unsure. The survey was conducted online between June 28 and 30, with a +/- 2.5 margin of error and includes some figures believed to be rounded up, not always adding up to 100 percent.
Newsweek has emailed HarrisX for comment.
Speculation over whether President Joe Biden will be replaced as the Democratic presidential candidate for November surged in the aftermath of his first debate with Trump on June 27, during which the 81-year-old incumbent at several points appeared to lose his train of thought. Consequently a number of prominent Democrats, including four members of Congress, urged Biden to step aside from the contest.
In the interview's aftermath, vice president Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the most likely Democratic 2024 presidential nominee according to U.K. betting company William Hill.
Among those who watched the June 27 debate, the HarrisX survey found 67 percent thought Trump "had the best performance" of the two rivals, against 33 percent for Biden. With registered voters as a whole 44 percent said Trump performed best versus 18 percent for Biden, with another 33 percent saying "neither of them performed well" and five percent for "both performed equally well.
Kennedy initially ran against Biden for the Democratic presidential nomination, but the environmentalist and vaccine skeptic has since announced he is running as an independent. However, he is facing an uphill battle to get accepted onto the ballot in all 50 states.
During an interview with NewsNation's Chris Cuomo, Kennedy said that if Biden dropped out he would be open to being the Democratic nominee should the party be interested. He said: "Of course I would talk to them. It would put me on the ballot with nobody trying to get me off."
Newsweek contacted the Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. campaigns for comment on Saturday outside of usual business hours.
Kennedy has been forced to deny eating dogs after a photograph of himself next to what appeared to be a barbecued body of a canine was published earlier this week by Vanity Fair.
A veterinarian consulted by the publication said the animal pictured was likely a dog because of its rib cage, but Kennedy insisted it was a goat.
It described the Vanity Fair article as a "hit piece" commenting: "They will stop at nothing to smear his character and divert attention from the real issue at hand."
Patriotic symbols are meant to be unifying, but it turns out red America and blue America have some different ways they like to celebrate the Fourth of July. Although, unsurprisingly, everyone loves a good picnic.
A new poll conducted by HarrisX for the Deseret News showed some of the nation’s strongest patriotic symbols were more likely to be embraced by Republicans than Democrats.
When asked whether they planned to fly a flag on Independence Day, 82% of Republicans said they would, compared to 62% of Democrats. Republicans were more likely to say they would say the Pledge of Allegiance (70%) or sing the national anthem (67%). But near-equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats said they would watch fireworks, shop at a small business or volunteer in their community on the Fourth of July.
The poll was conducted by HarrisX on June 28-29, among 1,314 registered voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Are Americans proud of their country?
The vast majority of Americans, red or blue, said they were proud of their country.
When asked whether they were proud to be an American, 92% of all respondents said they were either very or somewhat proud. Republicans were most likely to say very proud, at 78%, while 64% of Democrats and 56% of independents agreed.
The least likely to say very proud? Young voters, ages 18-34, with only 43% choosing that option — although another 37% said somewhat proud.
This polling tracks with Gallup’s longtime surveys of the U.S. populace on American pride. While the share of U.S. voters in Gallup’s polls who say they are “extremely proud” to be an American is near a record low, nearly 90% of Americans are at least somewhat proud. The gap between Democrats and Republicans, and the old and the young, is present in Gallup’s surveys, too — though “the fact that Republicans tend to be older than Democrats and independents also contributes to the party differences,” Gallup notes.
Do we still believe in American exceptionalism?
When Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, ran for president in 2012, he ran on a platform of American exceptionalism: He called the U.S. “an exceptional country with a unique destiny and role in the world.” It was the title of one of his books: “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness.”
Former President Donald Trump pushed back against the idea shortly before launching his presidential campaign in 2016, saying he didn’t “like the term.” Even so, a section on “American exceptionalism” was included in the GOP platform in both 2016 and 2020, which described it as “the notion that our ideas and principles as a nation give us a unique place of moral leadership in the world.”
This idea that the U.S. is, or should be, a moral light to the rest of the world, is still held by most Americans.
When asked whether they agree more with the statement, “I believe in American exceptionalism, or that the United States is distinctive, unique, and exemplary to countries around the world because of its values, history, and achievements,” or, “I do not believe in American exceptionalism because the United States has as many issues as other countries,” a strong majority — 7 out of 10 — respondents chose exceptionalism.
Republicans were more likely to say the U.S. is exceptional, with 79% choosing that option compared to 68% of Democrats. The older respondents were, the more likely they were to support the idea of American exceptionalism.
On a related question — whether the U.S. is “the greatest country in the world,” or “an excellent country, but we are still working through some issues,” 68% of Republicans chose one of those two options, while 60% of Democrats did. That number dropped to 51% among independent voters.
Over half of voters age 18-34 said the U.S. was either “a good country, but we have many large problems,” or “just OK, because we struggle with systemic problems,” or, “a bad country, many other countries are much better.”
Is the American flag a political symbol?
A significantly larger portion of Republicans (82%) than Democrats (62%) say they plan to fly an American flag on the Fourth of July. And when asked whether they think political ideology affects the decision to fly a flag, most Republicans (51%) said conservatives are more likely, while most Democrats (60%) said both conservatives and liberals were equally likely to fly a flag.
The data seems to match a larger trend in which the American flag means different things to different people, based on political ideology. In 2021, The New York Times reported that flying the flag “is increasingly seen as a clue, albeit an imperfect one, to a person’s political affiliation in a deeply divided nation.” One Harvard Political Review article in 2022 asserted that the flag “has become a symbol of the conservative American, not of shared American values.”
Do red America and blue America celebrate the Fourth differently?
When it comes to celebrating the Fourth of July, Americans across the political divide share more in common than they differ.
Almost equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats say they like to spend time with family, have a barbecue or picnic, or watch fireworks.
But when it comes to decorating, more Republicans (28%) than Democrats (18%) said they like to put up “red, white and blue decorations.”
Least likely to go to a parade? Independent voters, at 16%, about five points behind their Republican and Democratic counterparts.
On the question of whether the Fourth of July was more about spending time with friends and family, or remembering and celebrating American Independence, six out of ten Democrats chose friends and family, while about the same number of Republicans said celebrating independence. Independents sided with the Democrats on this question.
Published on July 2, 2024 by Doug Blair, Data Journalist at HarrisX
New HarrisX polling following the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle featuring former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden shows a clear winner. 62% of voters say that Trump was the winner of the debate, versus just 38% who said Biden won.
Though that number is couched by many voters who think neither one of the candidates did very well. If that option is thrown into the mix, 33% of voters panned both Trump and Biden, while a plurality, 44%, still said Trump did better.
Our poll also tracked voter’s perceptions of who won based on a variety of different metrics. To start, let’s dive into how the sexes viewed the winner. Men by and large favored Donald Trump, who earned the approval of 66% of male viewers. Women agreed, but by a smaller margin at 58%.When asked if both or neither candidate did better, most men still said Trump won at 54%. A plurality of women said neither candidate won at 41%.
We saw similar splits amongst racial groups. Biden eked outa win with Black voters, long a staple Democratic voting bloc, at 52% versus 48%for Trump. Hispanic voters were slightly more split, with 55% saying Trump won and 45% saying Biden did. The most split racial group was white voters. Trump definitively won with white voters, at 66% versus Biden’s 34%
Amongst Republicans, the winner was clear. 95% ofRepublicans said Trump. Democrats were more split, but still favored Biden. 72%say that Biden won, with more than a quarter giving Trump the win. Independents leaned towards Trump, with 63% saying Trump won and 37% saying Biden did.
Another point of difference existed with the urban/rural divide. Amongst urban voters, Biden clinched 49% of poll respondents, with 51%breaking for Trump. That ratio radically flipped for rural voters, who strongly viewed Trump as the winner with 74% support and just 26% for Biden.
One final division to note is age, where results were allover the place. Amongst young voters aged 18-34, Trump led with 63% against Biden's37%. Then for middle-aged voters aged 35-49, things get closer. 58% say Trump won while 42% say Biden did. Amongst older voters, that number grows further apart. For them, Trump won with 65% of the vote, compared to 35% for Biden.
The first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle was a clear victory for former President Trump. Trump won with multiple demographics, even those that traditionally break for Democrats like urban voters, women, and young voters. Joe Biden was only competitive with Democratic voters and black voters, and by smaller margins than he should be comfortable with. Biden will need to perform better next debate or hope that these results aren’t reflective of larger voting patterns if he hopes to win come November.
About the Post-Debate Poll:
This survey was conducted online within the United States from June 28 - 30 among 1,500 registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age,gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, area type, education, ideology, and party ID where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
For the full findings, please CLICK HERE and also see our Forbes Newsroom Video where our CEO, Dritan Nesho explores and discusses these findings further.
WATCH: On Forbes Breaking News, HarrisX CEO and lead researcher, Dritan Nesho, discusses exclusive new polling following the first debate that shows voters think former president Donald Trump was the winner.
Beyond other labor impacts, implementing generative AI in entertainment content production will bring changes to creative worker skillsets, according to a survey developed by Variety Intelligence Platform (VIP+) in collaboration with HarrisX, fielded online by HarrisX among 150 U.S. media and entertainment decision makers from May 2-13, 2024.
For nearly every role listed, the majority of M&E workers expected the role would experience either a major or minor impact — meaning any type of change to the current way the role is performed — from gen AI over the next two years. Animators, VFX artists, game developers, voice actors and concept or storyboard artists were the top roles expected to experience a major impact.
Generative AI has the potential to create new efficiencies in content creation processes in the media and entertainment industry. As discussed in a separate VIP+ post, the majority of M&E decision makers say implementation or consideration of the tech is underway in some business areas at their companies.
For Hollywood, gen AI adoption is possible but complicated. As gen AI education proceeds in the industry, it’s become clearer that the tech can create new efficiencies and some promising growth opportunities.
Increased productivity is the top benefit M&E decision makers anticipate from gen AI. A similar percentage of respondents anticipate gen AI will enable faster turnaround on some projects, further suggesting efficiency benefits.
Beyond efficiency, decision makers further anticipate proficiency gains, with 27% expecting gen AI to improve the quality of work. The truth of that expectation depends on the performance readiness of gen AI tools to meet the high production standards of premium content, particularly in Hollywood.
Yet ethical implementation is critical for M&E businesses to avoid downstream liabilities from gen AI use. Though nuances apply for actors, artists and writers alike, a baseline requirement of consent, control and compensation (the “3 C’s”) is commonly referenced regarding the training, creation and use of AI models to replicate their likeness (face, voice) or style (visual art, music or writing).
Strong majorities of M&E workers and consumers alike agree that permission should be required in common scenarios where gen AI is used for AI training and style or likeness replicas.
“Generative AI represents a transformative opportunity for the media and entertainment industry, promising enhanced efficiencies and new growth avenues. Our collaboration with Variety Intelligence Platform shows an evolving AI landscape where decision makers are increasingly integrating these new technologies into their operations,” says Dritan Nesho, lead researcher and CEO of HarrisX.
“At the same time, while the technology holds potential for greater productivity and faster project turnaround, its impact on creative standards and workforce dynamics must be carefully navigated. Our findings emphasize the importance of ethical considerations and consent frameworks as integral to responsible gen AI use in content production.”
Less than five months ahead of the 2024 presidential election, Utah voters are unhappy with their own financial situations — and it’s shaping who they plan to support in November.
Almost half of Utah voters (48%) say their personal financial situation is currently getting worse, while only 19% say it is improving, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX. The results mirror the shares of voters who say they will support President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump: 49% of Utahns plan to support Trump, while 20% back Biden, according to the poll.
The results continue a national trend of pessimism about the U.S. economy, even as inflation decreases and unemployment remains low — but interest rates and household debt near record highs.
When Utah voters were asked which issues are most impactful to their vote, financial issues were the most frequent responses: price increases and inflation (24%), and the economy and jobs (21%). Another 13% said immigration was their top issue; 11% said “family values, morality, or faith.”
The poll was conducted by HarrisX among 857 registered Utah voters from June 6-7, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Voters across the country widely see the economy and immigration as the top issues driving their votes, too. Recent polling from Gallup and Pew show inflation as voters’ top concern; in the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll of battleground voters, the economy and immigration are the top issues.
But Utahns are distinct in listing family values among their top issues. While most Americans say “the state of moral values” is a “very big problem” in the country today, according to a Pew survey, that one-tenth of Utah voters say this is their top issue driving their vote is significant.
Among Republican Utah voters, 13% said “family values, morality, or faith” was the top issue that would impact how they vote this cycle. Among Democrats, 3% said the same.
Democrats and Republicans walk in lockstep in saying economic issues are their top concerns: among Democrats, 19% said price increases/inflation are their top issue, and 17% said the economy and jobs; among Republicans, 24% said price increases/inflation and 21% said the economy and jobs.
There is a deviation on the third-most common response: while Republicans (17%) view immigration as a top issue, a similar share of Democrats (15%) say abortion is most important to them.
While 9% of Utah Democrats said immigration is their top issue, a similar share (8%) said “Supreme and other federal court justice appointments” is most important to them — compared to just 2% of Republicans.
The general discontent about the economy seeps into who voters plan to support in the general election. Just 20% of Utah voters say they think the U.S. economy is on the right track, while 72% say it is on the wrong track. But among those who say they’ll vote for Biden, a plurality — 47% — think the country is on the right track; among Trump supporters in the state, that figure is down to 12%.
The same is true when voters were asked about whether the country is generally on the right or wrong track. Only 14% of Utah voters say the U.S. is on the right track, while 77% say it is on the wrong track. Biden supporters are much more optimistic, but not by much: 32% of likely Biden voters say the country is on the right track, while 51% say it’s on the wrong track. Only 10% of Trump voters say it’s on the right track, and 87% say it’s on the wrong track.
The same pessimism does not extend to the direction Utah is headed in, though. When asked if they think Utah is on the right or wrong track, voters are much more optimistic: nearly half, 48%, say the state is on the right track, a full 34 percentage points higher than those who say the same of the country. Both Biden and Trump supporters are more pleased with the state than the country: 43% of Biden supporters say Utah is on the right track, and 52% of Trump supporters agree.
It’s a trend that isn’t unique to Utah: according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll, voters in swing states consistently view their local economy much more favorably than the national economy. Only a quarter of battleground voters think the nation is heading in the right direction; only 36% consider the U.S. economy to currently be “excellent” or “good.”
But when you ask the same voters about their own states, they are much more complimentary. Overall, 56% of swing-state voters have favorable views of their local economy — a full 20 percentage points higher than those who view the nation’s economy favorably.
“It’s a strange predicament that has puzzled some economists and has politicians in both parties searching for explanations,” Paul Kane wrote in The Washington Post. “That chasm between the state of the states and the state of the nation could determine whether President Biden wins a second term and who will control Congress next year. All this could translate very differently when it comes to how voters size up candidates to represent them on the state, local and national level.”
Former President Donald Trump maintains a dominant lead over President Joe Biden in Utah, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll.
In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and Trump, 57% of Utahns said they would support Trump if the election were held today, nearly mirroring Trump’s vote share in Utah during the 2020 election. One quarter of voters said they would support Biden, down from the 38% of Utah voters that backed him in 2020. Eighteen percent of voters are undecided.
Though independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. draws more voters from Trump than Biden, Trump still dominates in a three-way race. When offered the three candidates as options, 49% say they’d vote for Trump, while Biden and Kennedy each garner 20%.
Kennedy has visited Utah twice since launching his independent presidential campaign last fall. In November, Kennedy held a rally in Salt Lake City, and in January, he returned in Utah to celebrate qualifying for ballot access. Utah was the first state to grant Kennedy a place on its ballot.
Biden visited Utah in August, though he held no public campaign events, opting instead for a private fundraiser in Park City. Trump has not visited Utah this cycle: Plans for a June fundraiser in Park City were scrapped when a CNN debate was planned for the same date. Organizers are hoping to reschedule the event for late July or late August, an individual with knowledge of the plans said.
Utah is widely expected to be an uncompetitive state in 2024. The Republican presidential nominee has won every presidential election in Utah since 1964. In 2020, Trump defeated Biden by 20 points; in 2016, even as independent candidate Evan McMullin won over 20 percent of the vote, Trump beat Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton by 18 points.
Utah Gov. Spencer Cox has a commanding lead over his primary challenger, state Rep. Phil Lyman, ahead of the June 25 primary election.
Cox, who is running for his second term in office, is among the most popular governors in the nation. So when state Rep. Phil Lyman was the top vote-getter at the GOP state convention in April, winning 67% of delegates’ votes, many were surprised.
But a new poll conducted by HarrisX for the Deseret News and the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics shows Cox with 62% support among likely Republican primary voters, while Lyman garners 25% support. Another 12% of voters said they were unsure.
Deseret News
When undecided voters were asked which way they were leaning, Cox’s lead increased, with 71% choosing the incumbent compared to 29% for Lyman.
The poll was conducted by HarrisX among 477 likely Utah Republican voters, including those who had already voted, from June 4-6, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Jason Perry, director of the Hinckley Institute, said while there was some division evident among Republicans at the state convention, the poll results show convention delegates do favor “much more conservative” candidates than the Republican electorate statewide.
“This is not a completely new phenomenon, it’s something we’ve seen over the years,” Perry said. “We’re just seeing it more clearly this year than we have in the past.”
Cox was booed at the convention by some of the delegates, leading him to express frustration with delegates and the convention system.
“I’m a little worried about our caucus convention system,” Cox said at the time. “There are a whole bunch of people out there who want to get rid of this. … I hope you’re not giving them more ammunition today.”
Generative AI adoption is underway at many media and entertainment companies, according to a survey developed by Variety Intelligence Platform in collaboration with HarrisX and fielded online by HarrisX among 150 U.S. industry decision makers May 2-13, 2024.
Fully 79% of U.S. media and entertainment decision makers indicated their company was either exploring, testing or actively deploying generative AI in some aspect of their business, with nearly half (49%) having implemented in either a few or several areas. Meanwhile, laggards or abstention accounted for 21% of respondents, with 6% saying their company has banned any use of the tech.
Among industry workers, 61% said they currently use gen AI (33%) or plan to (28%). (Full data provided in the full report.)
When it comes to implementation, M&E decision makers expect gen AI to be used in several areas. Relevant to film and TV production, half expect the tech to be used for concept design, visual effects and marketing and distribution, while 30% anticipate its use for contentlocalization.
It further examines the advancement and potential of video generation models that have gripped the industry, including OpenAI’s Sora and Google DeepMind’s Veo, which were announced in the first half of 2024.
Yet to understand how the tech is actively being used today also requires an understanding of its limitations and challenges. VIP+ digs into the specific factors holding back gen AI implementation as tools used to make the highest production-value content. Ethical use is now central and critical to gen AI decision making for media and entertainment companies, and it is the final focus area of this report.
Research for this special report partly draws from 28 independent interviews conducted on background from February to May 2024 with leaders at generative AI tech and service providers, those in VFX and content localization networks, film and TV concept and storyboard artists, independent filmmakers experimenting with generative AI, ethical technologists and lawyers specializing in entertainment and cybersecurity.
Company participants in generative AI include Anamorph, Cuebric, Flawless, ElevenLabs, Haiper, Irreverent Labs, Lightricks, Lore Machine, Metaphysic, Monsters Aliens Robots Zombies (MARZ), Papercup, Pika, Runway and Soul Machines.
This expansive exploration features a six-page section of charts and analysis from original quantitative surveys developed by VIP+ in collaboration with HarrisX and fielded online by HarrisX from May 2-13, 2024, among U.S. respondents, including 1,001 consumers, 308 media and entertainment workers and 150 M&E decision makers.
For additional research on the use and risk mitigation of generative AI in entertainment, we point back to VIP+’s December, October, May and April special reports.
Generative AI adoption is underway at many media and entertainment companies. But how exactly the tech is being used in film and TV production has remained something of a mystery.
With this special report, “Generative AI in Film & TV,” Variety Intelligence Platform gives a clear-eyed view of the current state of the industry’s exploration and use of gen AI in aspects of the production process including concept art, storyboarding, VFX and content localization.
It further examines the advancement and potential of video generation models that have gripped the industry, including OpenAI’s Sora and Google DeepMind’s Veo, which were announced in the first half of 2024.
Yet to understand how the tech is actively being used today also requires an understanding of its limitations and challenges. VIP+ digs into the specific factors holding back gen AI implementation as tools used to make the highest production-value content. Ethical use is now central and critical to gen AI decision making for media and entertainment companies, and it is the final focus area of this report.
Voters are split as to whether Trump’s legal issues are fair and unbiased or politically motivated – 83% of Republicans say they’re politically motivated, while 78% of Democrats say they’re fair. Independents lean towards fair and unbiased at 52%.
A slim majority of voters think the trials should have been moved from heavy Democratic jurisdictions like New York and Atlanta to avoid biasing the trials against Trump.
2 in 3 voters say they were paying close attention to the Trump’s New York trial.
A majority of voters say Trump was mostly guilty of the crimes he was just convicted (57%), including 91% of Democrats, 60% of Independents. 1 in 5 Republicans say they think Trump was mostly guilty.
By a 2 to 1 margin, undecided voters think Trump is mostly guilty and that he received a fair trial presided by a fair judge and decided by a fair jury.
46% of undecided voters think he should get a prison sentence
Trump felony decision doesn’t change the horserace – still largely tied.
Trump 43% vs Biden 42% vs. 14% undecided
Undecideds still splitting 50/50 for Biden and Trump despite saying that they think Trump is guilty
Country split on the fairness of the trial despite thinking Trump was guilty
49% say Trump trials are fair and unbiased vs. 51% who say they are politically motivated
54% would have wished the trial wasn’t held in a deep democratic jurisdiction
Nevertheless, 57% say Trump was mostly guilty … including 60% of independence
Over half do not want Trump to get a prison sentence
On net verdict doesn’t change people’s minds
On net, plurality of 44% say verdict doesn’t change their mind, 30% say more likely to vote for Trump, 27% to vote for Biden
Republicans +46% say more rather than less likely to vote for Trump
Democrats +31% say less likely to vote for Trump
51% of independents say no impact on their vote (and only slightly more likely to reject trump +6% than support him)
See our CEO, Dritan Nesho, speak with Forbes about these latest findings:
Dritan Nesho, Founder & CEO at HarrisX, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to react to former President Trump being found guilty on all counts in his NYC hush money trial.
HarrisX Unveils Groundbreaking Insights on Public Perception of AI in Political Contexts at AAPOR 2024
Earlier this month, HarrisX presented compelling findings at the 79th Annual American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Conference. The study, titled "Measuring the Echo: Quantifying Public Opinion in the Era of Artificial Intelligence (AI)," explores U.S. voters' ability to distinguish between AI-generated and human-created content, with significant implications for the upcoming 2024 elections.
Key Findings:
Detection Challenges:
52% of Respondents incorrectly identified AI-generated videos as human-made.
54% of Respondents mistakenly thought human-created videos were AI-generated.
Emotional Responses to AI Content:
Negative emotions dominated, with 35% of voters feeling fearful and 28% feeling uncertain upon learning content was AI-generated.
Positive reactions were minimal, with only 6% expressing satisfaction or optimism.
Confidence vs. Accuracy:
Initial confidence in distinguishing AI from human content was low, with 40% of voters feeling confident.
Post-exposure, accuracy in correctly identifying AI content increased to 67%, yet confidence only slightly improved to 47%.
Partisan Differences:
Democratic voters showed an increase in confidence from 46% to 52% post-exposure.
Republican and Independent voters experienced significant boosts in accuracy, rising by 32% and 33%, respectively.
Impact on Political Campaigns:
AI's role in misinformation is highlighted, with examples like a deepfake of President Joe Biden targeting New Hampshire voters and a similar tactic in Indonesia involving former leader Suharto.
The pervasive use of AI technology poses risks of voter manipulation and misinformation in the 2024 global elections.
Survey Methodology: The HarrisX poll surveyed 3,030 registered voters, with a margin of error of ±1.8 points. Subgroups included Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, each with respective margins of error of ±2.9, ±3.2, and ±3.5 points.
Conclusion: The study underscores the urgent need for public education on AI and its potential regulatory measures, especially as we approach a major election year. HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho emphasized the importance of these findings, stating, "In an era where AI can easily blur the lines between reality and fabrication, understanding public perception is crucial to maintaining the integrity of our democratic processes."
For more information and detailed findings, see the full presentation above.
Stagwell today released the results of the May Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating is steady at 44%, while inflation returned to being voters’ most important issue with immigration a close second. The poll also covers public opinion on the Israel-Hamas war and the upcoming presidential debates. Download key results here.
“Americans always want to hear from the candidates directly and make up their own minds,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “The race is still open, which reinforces why the candidates should be going after the undecided independents, rather than their own bases.”
During the event, Stagwell will unveil groundbreaking research, conducted by HarrisX, debunking misconceptions about brand safety in news contexts, and challenge advertisers to reassess investment in news publishers – an essential step in ensuring a thriving future for the news industry.
This summit also marks an occasion to formally debut Stagwell's new partnership council of U.S. publishers, media buying platforms and social platforms, including Ad Fontes Media, Axel Springer, Axios, Business Insider, POLITICO, The New York Times, The Trade Desk, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. Together, the council will launch a transformative platform to challenge the advertising industry to reinvest in news.
"The Future of News Summit will reframe the conversation by debuting research that illustrates the power of news audiences to drive business and debunks common brand safety myths," said Stagwell Chairman and CEO Mark Penn. "According to our prior research, 90% of voters think the country should have freedom of the press, and yet news monetization is increasingly under attack. Live at the summit we'll bring both brand and publisher partners together to discuss ways to navigate this climate and maintain consumer trust."
Netflix, for instance, eliminated new sign-ups for its cheapest ad-free plan last year, but is only just beginning to funnel existing users off the tier. A sober cost-benefit analysis is necessary in these situations: How much of that audience will be lost if forced off their current plan, versus upgraded to either a more expensive plan or a more lucrative ad-supported tier?
For Netflix, it’s likely that the majority of the users at stake will be retained. But the same cannot be said for Peacock, which has its own backlog of legacy users — and a much larger one, proportionally speaking.
Per exclusive results from the latest quarterly streaming survey by HarrisX, fully a third of Peacock users were still on the service’s free tier as of Q1, even though new sign-ups for the no-cost plan were shut off over a year ago.
Results from the latest quarterly streaming survey by HarrisX, shared exclusively with Variety Intelligence Platform, show that Netflix’s ad-supported tier is, as of the end of Q1, the second most common subscription plan for the service among U.S. households of the four tiers Netflix offers.
Out of more than 9,600 U.S. Netflix subscribers polled, 27% were on the “Standard with ads” plan, behind only the “Standard” plan — the cheapest ad-free tier currently on the domestic market — at 32%.
These results suggest adoption of the ad plan has accelerated significantly since it launched to muted results about a year and a half ago. It’s unclear how many users currently subscribe to the plan worldwide; Netflix has never revealed exact subscriber counts for the AVOD tier and has not disclosed any figures since announcing in January that it had surpassed 23 million global monthly active users.
But based on rough extrapolation from these survey results, around 22 million users may now exist in the domestic market alone. Netflix had about 82.7 million subscribers in the U.S. and Canada at the end of Q1, per its earnings report for the quarter; 27% of that figure is about 22 million.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris survey shared with The Hill showed 80 percent of registered voters said they support Israel more in the war, while 20 percent said they support Hamas more. That is about in line with the poll’s findings from last month, when 79 percent indicated they support Israel more.
In this month’s poll, older age groups were much more likely to be supportive of Israel than younger respondents, though a clear majority of each age group supported Israel more than Hamas. More than 90 percent of those 65 years old and older and of those 55 to 64 said they support Israel more, while 85 percent of those 45 to 54 and three-quarters of those 35 to 44 said the same.
Support for Israel was the lowest among the youngest age groups. Pollsters found 64 percent of those 25 to 34 and 57 percent of those 18 to 24 said they support Israel more, while the rest of those age groups said they support Hamas more.
The poll’s results come as numerous pro-Palestinian protests have popped up on college campuses throughout the country. Students have set up encampments to protest for days at schools including Columbia and New York University.
Is President Biden gaining in the polls? There have been signs of it ever since his State of the Union address last month, and a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday morning is the latest hint.
Donald J. Trump led Mr. Biden by one percentage point among likely voters nationwide, 47 percent to 46 percent. It represents a modest improvement for the president since February, when Mr. Trump led our poll by four points among likely voters. (The one-point difference is the same with registered voters.)
You can’t exactly call a one-point deficit the “Biden comeback,” but the result adds to a growing list of polls finding him inching up over the last month.
So far, 16 national pollsters (of varying quality) have taken polls before and after the State of the Union. On average, Mr. Biden is running about 1.4 points better in the post-State of the Union polls than in earlier surveys by the same pollsters.
While most people believe COVID-19 vaccines are safe and their side effects are now clear, a new HarrisX poll conducted for the Deseret News finds a big partisan difference in how people view COVID-19 vaccine safety and effectiveness.
That finding is part of a larger tale about the divides that marked much of the public reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic and the challenges it posed, particularly in the early days when many people were dying, schools and businesses were closing, jobs were vanishing and public health officials sometimes contradicted not just each other, but even themselves.
While overall 59% of those polled are confident the vaccines are safe and their side effects now known, only 44% of Republicans agree, compared to 78% of Democrats and 53% of independents. The other 56% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats say COVID-19 vaccines are not safe and they may have side effects that haven’t been revealed.
More people think the COVID-19 pandemic’s ongoing than don’t, according to a new HarrisX poll for the Deseret News. That’s despite the fact that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services declared the pandemic in America over nearly a year ago, on May 11, 2023.
The poll, conducted March 25-26 by HarrisX of 1,010 U.S. registered voters, found 58% believe the pandemic is ongoing, though few are still taking precautions (28%). Seventy-two percent said they take the same precautions they take for the flu. The survey has an error margin of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
“The competition continues between streaming services and the Hollywood engine. While we still see evidence of loyal movie-goers in recent box office numbers, our study shows that 2 in 3 movie watchers prefer to stream movies at home,” Alli Brady, VP at HarrisX, told IndieWire. “Despite this causing some upheaval for the industry, it also means that the demand for content is only increasing – nearly half of consumers say they stream movies weekly, more than 7x as frequently as those who do so in theaters.”
Only 37% of voters approved of Biden’s handling of the country in the aftermath of his address, according to a HarrisX State of the Union poll revealed Monday, while a USA Today/Suffolk survey published Wednesday showed 33% saying the speech positively impacted their view of the president.
Among those surveyed in the HarrisX poll, a majority (64%) said Biden should not seek another term, while 61% said he did not adequately address immigration and 59% said his speech only served to further divide the country.
A majority of respondents (57%) also said the speech raised concerns about Biden’s age and 54% said it raised questions about his fitness for office.
Most Republicans believe former President Donald Trump reflects their moral values and most Democrats say the same about President Joe Biden, according to a new poll.
A Deseret News/HarrisX poll asked over 1,000 registered U.S. voters, “To what extent does Donald Trump reflect your personal values?” Among self-described Republican voters, 38% responded “a great deal” and 41% said “some.”
When the same question was asked about Biden, 43% of Democrats said “a great deal” and 41% said “some.”
Consumers in the U.S. struggle to distinguish videos recorded by humans from those generated by OpenAI’s text-to-video tool Sora, according to new HarrisX data provided exclusively to Variety Intelligence Platform (VIP+).
In a survey conducted weeks after the controversial software was first unveiled, most U.S. adults incorrectly guessed whether AI or a person had created five out of eight videos they were shown.
Half of the videos were the Sora demonstration videos that have gone viral online, raising concerns from Hollywood to Capitol Hill for their production quality, including a drone view of waves crashing against the rugged cliffs along Big Sur’s Garay Point Beach and historical footage of California during the Gold Rush.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the HarrisX survey also revealed that strong majorities of respondents believed the U.S. government should enact regulation requiring that AI-generated content be labeled as such. They were equally emphatic about the need for regulation across all content formats, including videos, images, text, music, captions and sounds. Full results of the HarrisX survey can be found on VIP+.
In the survey, which was conducted online March 1-4 among more than 1,000 adults, respondents were shown four high-quality photorealistic-looking sample video outputs generated by Sora randomly interspersed with four videos from stock footage taken in the real world by a camera. In the case of the Big Sur video, 60% of respondents incorrectly guessed that a human had generated that video.
While Sora has yet to be released to the public, the OpenAI software has been the subject of much alarm — particularly in the entertainment industry, where the rapid evolution of video diffusion technology carries profound implications for the disruption of Hollywood’s core production capabilities (though Sora will likely be fairly limited at launch).
Moreover, AI video has raised broader questions about its deepfake potential, especially in an election year.
When presented with the AI-generated videos and informed they were created by Sora, respondents were asked how they felt. Reactions were a mix of positive and negative, ranging from curious (28%), uncertain (27%) and open-minded (25%) to anxious (18%), inspired (18%) and fearful (2%).
“When you try to change the world quickly, the world moves quickly to rein you in along predictable lines,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and head of research at HarrisX. “That's exactly what we're seeing with generative AI: as its sophistication grows via new tools like Sora, so do concerns about its impact and calls for the proper labeling and regulation of the technology. The nascent industry must do more both to create guardrails and to properly communicate with the wider public.”
President Joe Biden has been victorious in the primary elections across the country — including Utah — but his approval rating continues to languish at record lows.
Only 38% of Americans approve of his job performance, according to Gallup, a low not seen since President Jimmy Carter was in office. Voters are frustrated with his handling of immigration, and they’re worried about his age and fitness for office.
If former President Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination for president, GOP voters want to see Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as his running mate, a new poll shows.
According to a Deseret News/HarrisX poll of registered Republican voters nationally, 18% said DeSantis is their top pick to be Trump’s vice president. He was followed by Vivek Ramaswamy (15%), within the margin of error. The next highest picks were Nikki Haley (12%) and Tim Scott (9%).
Among all voters, regardless of party affiliation, Haley (16%) is the top pick, followed by DeSantis (10%) and Ramaswamy (8%).
LOS ANGELES — Viewers in the U.S. and across the globe want to see more accurate and diverse portrayals of faith and religion in television and movies, according to a new global study that looked at faith in the entertainment industry.
The Global Faith and Entertainment Study, conducted by HarrisX in partnership with the Faith & Media Initiative, revealed that more than half of viewers across the world believe the industry perpetuates stereotypes about religion, sensationalizing religious identity and often resorting to inaccurate tropes and tired storylines. And 80% of viewers would like to see an improvement in how stories about faith are told: They’d welcome fresh and diverse narratives when it comes to depictions of faith.
“I believe and I know that we are spiritual beings having a human experience,” said Rainn Wilson, an actor, producer and author of “Soul Boom: Why We Need a Spiritual Revolution.” “So why does the storytelling oftentimes not reflect this reality?”
Wilson was among leaders in the entertainment industry who spoke today at the “Spirituality and Faith in Entertainment” breakfast at The London hotel. The event was hosted by Variety and presented by the Faith & Media Initiative, a nonprofit dedicated to ensuring more accurate and balanced representation of all faiths in entertainment and news, and which is part of Deseret Management Corporation.
Participants reflected on the need for more accurate and diverse faith-infused storylines and the growing openness within the industry toward spiritually inclusive content.
Deseret Management President and CEO Jeff Simpson speaks during the Variety Spirituality and Faith in Entertainment breakfast presented by FAMI at The London hotel on Tuesday Feb. 13, 2024, in Los Angeles, California. | Rodin Eckenroth, Variety via Getty Images
“The growth of this market cannot be denied,” said Cynthia Littleton, the co-editor-in-chief at Variety. “The evolution of the content has been significant in the last few years as the content business has been on steroids, and I think everybody in this room knows the market is wide and the demand is vast.”
With the rise of depression and anxiety, especially among young Americans, many people have been turning to spirituality to alleviate their anxiety and find meaning, Wilson said. “There are people that have a great hunger for elevated spiritual conversations — inspiring, unifying conversations that are for all people of all faiths to find wisdom and work together to make the world a better place,” said Wilson, who is a member of the Baha’i faith and starred in the hit show “The Office.”
“Whether you’re making a feature film or a limited series, a TV show or working in digital media, there’s a lot of potential there to not only garner a large audience, but a potential to make a serious impact for the positive in the world,” Wilson said.
But faith and spirituality narratives get flattened in entertainment, the study found. Often, the portrayal of religion surrounds characters who are either victims or villains, said Jeff Simpson, president and CEO of Deseret Management Corp., which is the parent company of Deseret News.
“The human tendency for negative bias makes it more potent to lean into those spaces,” Simpson said. “But there is much more color and beauty to them.”
Why viewers want more faith in films and TV
The study, released today, built on a previous Faith & Media Initiative study that examined faith in news and the media.
Conducted in the summer of 2023, the entertainment study surveyed nearly 10,000 consumers across 11 countries who answered questions via an online survey. The study also included 30 interviews with directors, producers, actors and writers from seven countries, including Spain, Mexico, Honduras and Nigeria.
Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, highlighted why the findings are important. “People feel that they are underrepresented in the content, and when they are represented, they feel that more often than not, they’re misrepresented rather than adequately represented,” Nesho said. And this group is not in the minority: Nearly 73% of entertainment consumers around the world are people who are spiritual or faithful, he said, adding, “There is large swath of the global entertainment consumer that yearns for this kind of content. What they yearn for is better representation, more accuracy in the storytelling and the character development, and actually more diversity.”
The study found that among various aspects of an individual’s identity — gender, orientation, sex, race and ethnicity — religion is the least represented, and when it is represented, it’s portrayed in a sensationalized way, Nesho said.
And ensuring that this portrayal is accurate is important because, even more than news outlets, viewers see entertainment as one of the ways they can learn about another faith, Nesho said. Nearly 60% of study participants reported learning something new about a religion from a movie or TV show, and they believe that TV and movies can foster dialogue between people of different beliefs.
Why it’s hard to get faith right in TV and movies
In interviews conducted throughout the study, industry experts noted that creating narratives that feature faith and spirituality requires caution.
“We’re afraid of getting it wrong, and we don’t quite have a playbook to getting it right,” Nesho said. “And the hard thing about hard things and new things is that more often than not, there isn’t a playbook.”
Wilson also pointed to various marketing considerations that industry executives have to juggle. “My experience is (that) television executives and development executives are really good people that do want to make the world a better place, but they’re kind of up against a wall because they need viewers and they need clicks and they need downloads and they need sponsors and they need advertisers and they need to build audience share,” said Wilson, who is a co-founder of SoulPancake, a media company that explores life’s big questions.
The inherent complexity of telling stories about faith and religion can be intimidating, similar to the challenge of telling stories about war, politics and sexuality, said Brooke Zaugg, executive director of the Faith & Media Initiative. “We don’t shy away from those things,” she said. “We tackle [those topics] in a thoughtful, meaningful way. There is no reason why we should not be faith-fluent and capable of tackling this equally complex and important topic.”
Zaugg pointed to the 2016 film “Hacksaw Ridge” that told the story of a religious combat medic during World War II. “I thought that was a tremendous example of unpacking a complex part of that particular Christian faith’s belief and his decision of how he would show up in the world,” she said. Likewise, she mentioned the forthcoming film “Cabrini,” a story of an Italian-American Catholic nun, who advocated to establish housing and health care for orphaned children.
Also at the event, Hilary Swank, a two-time Academy Award-winning actress, spoke about her upcoming film “Ordinary Angels,” which is based on a true story and tells the story of a woman who struggles with alcoholism and loss of faith, then finds healing. “The power of church and community and how community comes together to help one another is depicted in this film in a very beautiful way,” Swank said.
Marc Malkin, Senior Culture & Events Editor at Variety, Hilary Swank, and Jon Gunn speak onstage during the Variety Spirituality and Faith in Entertainment Breakfast presented by FAMI at The London Hotel on Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. | Rodin Eckenroth, Variety via Getty Images
Roma Downey, the Emmy-nominated actor and producer who starred in the CBS series “Touched By an Angel” and co-produced “The Bible” miniseries, pointed to the need for more uplifting and hopeful television. She stars in “The Baxters,” a family drama based on the best-selling novels by Karen Kingsbury, that will be out in March on Amazon Prime. Downey likes to call the series a “hope-opera,” she said. “There are people looking for stories of hope,” she said.
How stories of faith are pitched matters, too, said DeVon Franklin, CEO of Franklin Entertainment and producer of “Flamin’ Hot” and “Miracles from Heaven.” He recalled pitching “Breakthrough,” his 2019 film about a child who comes back to life after drowning after his mother prays, and how persuasive his excitement proved to be. “You gotta be enthusiastic and not just opportunistic,” he said. “Don’t hide your faith, but also talk about how it can be universal as well.”
Franklin endorsed a bolder approach of appealing to the core audience of believers. “We gotta take more ownership,” he said. “It’s OK to say we are making it a Christian film with Christian values, and each of us is gonna have a different way of doing that, and that is OK, but let us not be afraid of what makes us distinctive when we are making content that looks like that.”
How Hollywood can produce more shows about faith
While shows like “The Chosen” have proven popular, there is an untapped market for films that have thought-provoking, diverse and accurate portrayals of characters’ faith and spirituality, according to Zaugg of the Faith & Media Initiative. Elevating examples of commercially successful stories that weave in faith and spirituality organically with other threads is important, Zaugg said. “That’s how I think we’ll find success,” she said.
The study identified three ways the entertainment industry can improve the way it tells stories about faith: hiring experts who drive narrative development to ensure accurate portrayal of faith, writing more diverse characters and including creators who share the religion of theses characters.
Expanding the definition of how we see faith in entertainment can be a helpful way forward, said Franklin, of Franklin Entertainment. “I think when you look at the power of faith, people only look at it sometimes through a religious lens,” he said.
Franklin considers “Star Wars” to be the most significant faith-based movie. “Why? Because you have to believe in the power you can not see. The force is faith,” he said, adding that it’s important to widen the aperture on how faith is depicted. “I think the goal is to continue to expand what it means to be a movie that deals with spirituality and faith.”
80% of global audiences say it is important for the entertainment industry to improve their portrayals of faith and make them more accurate
63% of audiences globally say entertainment frequently perpetuates stereotypes about religion, is the least represented and most sensationalized identity
Creating understanding between different groups and dispelling stereotypes are the top reasons consumers want more accurate depictions of faith and spirituality
LOS ANGELES, Feb. 13, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A first-of-its-kind global study of entertainment consumers conducted by HarrisX in partnership with the non-profit, the Faith and Media Initiative, found an overwhelming majority of global audiences believe the entertainment industry needs to actively improve their portrayals of faith and religion, as well as make them more accurate.
The Global Faith and Entertainment Study surveyed nearly 10,000 entertainment consumers across 11 countries. Consumers say they learn about other religions through entertainment, and see the potential for faith-inclusive content to create understanding and dialogue in society. Yet, respondents share that when they see their religion or faith - and others - included in mainstream entertainment, they feel it's often sensationalized or that the portrayal leans on stereotypes.
Global Audience Perspectives The major findings of the study uncover a set of addressable problems and opportunities:
69% of American entertainment consumers – and 63% globally – say TV and movies perpetuate religious stereotypes.
A majority of consumers say religious identity is the least represented, yet the most sensationalized element of identity portrayed.
Respondents say they don't see their religious identity on screen as much as their gender, race, or sexual orientation.
When they do see their religious identity portrayed, it's more likely to be a sensational or stereotypical depiction.
68% of global viewers say it is important to have diverse religious perspectives in TV and movies.
Most consumers across religions say portrayals of their faith follow repeat storylines, rather than cover fresh, diverse narratives.
Creating understanding and dispelling stereotypes are cited as the top reasons why representation is important.
61% of global consumers think TV and movies can foster dialogue between people of different beliefs.
59% of global consumers report learning something new about another religion from a movie or TV show.
A significant majority of respondents – 80% – say it's important that the entertainment industry improves portrayals of faith to make them more accurate.
As part of the survey, consumers identified three potential ways for the entertainment industry to generate change:
write more diverse characters and storylines;
hire writers and other talent who share the same religion as characters to ensure accurate portrayals;
hire experts to help with religious portrayals.
Perspectives from within Hollywood In addition to the online survey of consumers done in summer 2023, HarrisX also conducted 30 in-depth, off-the-record interviews with decision makers in the entertainment industry, including directors, producers, studio and platform executives, actors and writers spanning 7 countries (U.S., Spain, Italy, Canada, Mexico, Honduras and Nigeria).
Industry insiders shared that entertainment with faith storylines are often seen as a niche topic or potentially controversial within the entertainment industry. As such, despite the market potential, it is often sidelined in favor of other types of content. Those interviewed acknowledged there is an untapped market for films that have thought-provoking, diverse, and accurate portrayals of characters' faith and spirituality.
Reactions to the Findings Frank Patterson, CEO of Trilith Studios said, "We know the crucial role media plays in shaping perceptions and fostering understanding. The findings of the Global Faith and Entertainment Study underscore an important responsibility we have in Hollywood – to authentically portray faith and spirituality in our productions. Doing so represents an opportunity to bridge cultural divides, challenge stereotypes, and tell stories that reflect the diverse spiritual experiences of our global audience. It's not just about representation; it's about making a positive impact on society through the stories we choose to tell."
"This research shows there is an untapped market in entertainment media," said Brooke Zaugg, Executive Director of the Faith & Media Initiative. "Across the globe, consumers are looking for more accurate portrayals of faith and spirituality. This isn't about creating faith content, rather adding faith fluency and diverse storylines to all types of TV and movies. We urge the entertainment industry to take notice of this enormous global audience; it's not just good business but also a priceless opportunity to unify people when the world feels increasingly divided."
"Good storytelling in TV and movies has historically educated, inspired and led to positive change in business and society," said Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX. "The data shows clearly that addressing the concerns of audiences around the world about the lack of range, diversity, representation, depth, and accuracy when it comes to portrayals of viewers own religion, faith and spirituality – and that of other faiths they interact with – is both good business and leads to positive impact. Today entertainment is increasingly on demand and democratized therefore the needs of these massive swaths of consumers should not be ignored."
Dom Bartkus to lead Washington D.C. market as Senior Vice President and Managing Director; joins the Stagwell (STGW) firm from the Technology and Corporate Reputation practices of Burson, Cohn and Wolfe and PSB Research.
Gabriela Schulte to lead external and media engagements as Vice President of Communications and Marketing and Head of Data Journalism; was formerly a journalist and Executive Producer at The Hill TV.
WASHINGTON, Feb. 8, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- HarrisX, a leading global research consultancy that conducts market research, public policy polling, and social impact studies in more than 40 countries around the world, today announced the expansion of its Washington D.C. office, positioning itself for further growth during the 2024 election.
Dom Bartkus joins HarrisX as a Senior Vice President and Managing Director leading the Washington, DC market. Bartkus most recently served as a Senior Vice President of Issues, Crisis and Public Affairs Communications at Burson Cohn & Wolfe (BCW). Bartkus's tenure at BCW included three years spent in the UAE where he led the company's technology communications practice across the Middle East, and prior to BCW Bartkus held key roles at Penn Schoen Berland and Lake Research Partners, two leading DC-based polling firms. Dom has advised leading global companies, NGOs, political campaigns and high-level government officials across four continents. His areas of expertise include corporate reputation, executive positioning, messaging development and crisis communications.
Gabriela Schulte joins HarrisX as Vice President of Marketing and Communications, and Head of Data Journalism. An accomplished journalist and producer, Schulte joins from The Hill and Hill.TV – the newspaper and digital media company that commands one of the largest online audiences in the United States. There, she most recently served asthe Executive Producer of Rising, The Hill's flagship digital news and debate show,. Prior to that, Schulte oversaw the development of the data-driven political show "What America's Thinking."
"HarrisX's work in the areas of corporate reputation, public affairs, media and social impact has grown by triple digits since the 2020 election cycle, when HarrisX was the most accurate research house and pollster in the country," said Dritan Nesho, Founder and CEO of HarrisX. "We are doubling down on the accomplishments of the last several years with continued investments in industry experts; Dom and Gabi bring incredible range to the organization as we deliver first-class and multi-disciplinary strategy, policy and communications expertise to Fortune 100 companies navigating today's complex stakeholder landscape and the intersection of business and politics."
"HarrisX is a leading research company that advises some of the most iconic global brands and well-respected organizations," said Dom Bartkus. "I am thrilled to join this dynamic and high-growth team and leverage my experience in strategic research and communications to help further grow the company and lead our Washington D.C., office. "
"I am excited to join the HarrisX team during this transformative phase. The world needs more evidence-driven and transparent insights that not only educate the landscape of business and politics but also contribute positively and significantly to social impact and the ongoing transformation driven by new technologies," said Gabi Schulte. "As society navigates through a pivotal time, we will delve deep into emerging trends, unafraid of pushing the boundaries of conventional narratives, and ensuring that our data-first approach remains at the forefront of informing critical conversations and decisions. To me that is what epitomizes HarrisX and I look forward to expanding and scaling that formula."
Bartkus and Schulte join a team of over 75 research consultants, campaign and corporate strategists, and policy and technology experts across offices in Washington D.C., New York City, Tampa, Toronto, London and Singapore with in-house research know-how that represents perspectives from over 20 nationalities and regularly support a wide array of Fortune 100 companies with global footprints. For more information visit: www.harrisx.com
About HarrisX HarrisX is a leading global research consultancy that regularly conducts major market research, public policy polling and social science studies and consulting engagements in more than 40 countries around the world. It is a proud member of Stagwell Global (STGW). (Learn more at www.harrisx.com.)
About Stagwell Inc. Stagwell is the challenger network built to transform marketing. We deliver scaled creative performance for the world's most ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with leading-edge technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. Led by entrepreneurs, our 13,000+ specialists in 34+ countries are unified under a single purpose: to drive effectiveness and improve business results for their clients. (Join us at www.stagwellglobal.com.)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.jpg)
.webp)
.png){kind=logo}