HarrisX Releases Final National and Battleground State Polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election; Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin Voters Likely to Decide the Outcome

Polling suggests a high turnout election with over 155 million Americans expected to cast vote in the 2024 election

Donald Trump neutralizes Kamala Harris’s early voter advantage in the final poll, tying the national race 49 to 49 percent

Battleground state polling shows Harris winning Pennsylvania while Trump is poised to win Arizona, Georgia and Nevada

Race is statistically tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, with Michigan leaning towards Harris and North Carolina and Wisconsin towards Trump

Washington D.C. November 5, 2024 – HarrisX, a leading U.S.-based public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company, today released its final set of polling for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election on the HarrisX Elections Hub (elections.harrisx.com).

The final national and battleground surveys were conducted November 4-5, 2024 with 1,325 national likely voters, and November 3-5, 2024 with 11,172 likely voters across the seven key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Final HarrisX polling shows former president Donald J. Trump and Vice President tied nationally at 49 percent each. Strong support for Trump among the election day voters have effectively erased the lead that Harris has held with those who voted early.

The election is heading to a close finish in the Electoral College, with Trump favored to win 252 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 245, with Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin accounting for the remaining 41 Electoral College votes. In these three battleground states, the two candidates are statistically tied, with less than 1 percent difference. In this scenario, both Harris and Trump would need to win at least two of the three states to cross the 270 threshold and win the presidency.

“The election comes down to voter turnout today,” said Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX. “Trump has closed strong and neutralized Harris’s early voter advantage nationally, while Harris has made several Trump-friendly battleground states a toss-up. With Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin statistically tied, 41Electoral College votes are in play giving both candidates several paths to victory. Trump appears to hold a slight edge, but his supporters have to show up today in strong numbers for him to return to the White House.”

The full findings can be found at the newly-unveiled HarrisX Elections Hub at elections.harrisx.com.

Survey Methodology

Survey Fielding Dates Sample Size for Reported Data (Likely Voters) Margin of Error

National Nov. 4-5 1,325 +/- 2.7%

All Battleground States Nov. 3-5 11,172 +/- 0.9%

Arizona 1,468 +/- 2.6%

Georgia 1,659 +/- 2.4%

Michigan 1,668 +/- 2.4%

Nevada 1,125 +/- 2.9%

North Carolina 1,600 +/- 2.5%

Pennsylvania 2,103 +/- 2.1%

Wisconsin 1,549 +/- 2.5%

The final HarrisX 2024 U.S. Presidential election polling was conducted in two parts:

Nationally: The national survey was administered online within the United States from November 4- November 5 among 1,511 registered voters and 1,325 likely voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment

sampling. Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology, early voter percentage, and area type where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points for registered voters and +/-2.7 percentage points for likely voters.

Battleground States: The states survey was administered online by HarrisX among 13,054 registered voters from November 3-5, 2024 across 7 battleground states in the US. Respondents were recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.

Sample size and sampling margin of error for Registered Voters in each state are as follows: Arizona (N: 1697, MoE: +/- 2.4%), Georgia (N: 1976, MoE: +/- 2.2%), Michigan (N: 1930, MoE: +/- 2.2%), Nevada (N: 1313, MoE: +/- 2.7%), North Carolina (N: 1895, MoE: +/- 2.3%), Pennsylvania (N: 2451, MoE: +/- 2%), Wisconsin (N: 1792, MoE: +/- 2.3%.)

Results were weighted by age, gender, race/ethnicity, political party, education, income, and previous vote choice where necessary to align with actual proportions amongst the population of Registered Voters within each state. The survey then filters and reports final results for Likely Voters to highlight those who definitely (or already voted), and those very likely to do so.

About HarrisX

HarrisX is a leading public opinion research, data analytics, and strategy consulting company with offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Singapore. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in over 50 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies and philanthropic organizations, public policy institutions, global leaders, media and NGOs. It was rated as the most accurate pollster is the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election by the Washington Post and American Research Group. HarrisX currently partners on public opinion polling with Harvard University (via the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll), The Hill Newspaper, Forbes Media, Deseret News and Variety. HarrisX is a proud member of Stagwell Inc. (STGW).