‍HarrisX/ Forbes Poll: Trump Gains Momentum Post Republican Convention, More Than Doubles Lead Against Biden and Harris

Poll was conducted after Donald Trump’s RNC Speech, but before President Biden’s announcement he won’t seek reelection

‍Vice President Harris performs similarly to President Biden but is better able to sway undecided voters and alleviates concerns among the democratic base

GOP has doubled its congressional ballot performance downrange, now winning 44% to 39% for the Democrats

Washington, D.C. (07/22/2024) – A national survey released today by HarrisX and Forbes Breaking News shows former President Donald J. Trump more than doubling his lead over both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in the aftermath of the Republican National Convention (RNC). The poll, taken before Biden officially dropped out of the race, indicates Trump leading Biden among registered voters 48%-40%, up from 45%-42% prior to RNC, and leading Harris 50% to 41%.  

Among likely November voters, Trump’s lead increases to double digits: 49%-39% against Biden, with 12% undecided and 51%-40% against Harris, with 9% as undecided voters.

The poll, which was conducted July 19-21, 2024 with 2,753 registered voters, also shows that voters expect Trump to win in November. Nearly two in three (65%) expected him to win against Biden and nearly as many (63%) say he would win against Harris.  

“Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost digits in our polling,” commented Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, on the findings. “If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’ That said, Vice President Harris alleviates concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway undecided independents and suburban women, showing some promise.”

C.W. Benston, VP of ForbesTV, added: The Forbes Newsroom is committed to bringing its audience real-time, actionable and accurate intelligence on the state of markets and the economy, politics and the 2024 election, and momentous events like this past weekend. That’s why we have partnered with Dritan and HarrisX, the most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential cycle, to present an anchored, data-driven view of the world to our audiences.” 

Other results from the HarrisX/ Forbes poll include:

VOTERS SHOW POSITIVE REACTIONS TO DONALD TRUMP’S RNC SPEECH

• Trump's RNC speech broke through with voters. 78% percent watched or heard about the speech, including 87% of Republicans, 74% of Democrats and 72% of Independents.  
• Among those aware of Trump’s RNC speech, a slight majority (56%) reacted favorably to it. However, voters were divided on whether the speech was uniting (52%) or divisive (48%).  
• One-in-three (33%) voters said the speech made them more likely to vote for the former president compared to 22% who said it made them less likely to support the Republican candidate. Nearly half (46%) said it made make no impact on their vote. Among Independent voters 52% said it made no impact on their vote, 19% said it made them less likely to support Trump while 28% said they were more likely to vote for him.  

‍VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS POLLS SIMILARLY TO BIDEN PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT

• The poll also shows that prior to Biden’s announcement to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Harris, Harris was performing similarly to President Biden across key metrics.  
• President Biden’s job approval is at 38%, the same as those who say they approve of the job Harris has been doing as Vice President. Both Biden and Harris are also seen unfavorably by a majority of voters (58% and 53% respectively).  
• However, Harris shows slightly higher job approval among young voters (18-34) at 42% versus Biden's 36% and Hispanic (42% vs. 38%). Independent voters also appear to lean more towards Harris than Biden, with 29% of independents saying they are leaning towards support her over Trump versus 28% leaning towards Biden over Trump.  

‍GOP DOUBLES ITS LEAD IN THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT

• Republicans lead Democrats by 5 percentage points (44% to 39%) in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters, and 8 percentage points (49% to 41%) among likely voters.  

‍Survey Methodology

This survey was conducted online within the United States from July 19th – July 21st, 2024, among 2,753 registered voters via the HarrisX Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods.

The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology and area type where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 1.9 percentage points.

About HarrisX

HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll runs 365 days a year in the United States as an omnibus survey; for more information email OvernightPoll@Harrisx.com

About Forbes Breaking News

Forbes Breaking News is a premier source for up-to-the-minute news coverage, delivering the latest headlines on politics, business, technology, and more. As part of Forbes Media, Forbes Breaking News provides reliable, real-time information to keep the public informed on key issues shaping the world today.