Months away from a polarizing presidential election, most U.S. voters — regardless of party affiliation — believe one thing: there is a real possibility of more political violence erupting before and after Election Day.

According to a new Deseret News/HarrisX poll of U.S. voters, over three-fourths (77%) say they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about more political violence occurring before Election Day, including almost equal shares of Republicans (80%) and Democrats (82%).

Find the full dataset for the Deseret News/HarrisX survey on political violence here.

Political violence is on the rise, voters say

Most voters (63%) say political violence has gone up over the past four years.

There have been many high-profile incidents of political violence in that span. In 2020, many Black Lives Matter protests turned violent across the country, and on Jan. 6, 2021, riots broke out at the U.S. Capitol ahead of the certification of the 2020 presidential election.

In July, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on his life during a rally in Pennsylvania. Then on Thursday, Trump was whisked away during a news interview in Arizona after being informed he was “in danger.”

Will there be violence after the 2024 election?

After the 2024 election, many Americans fear violence could break out again. A majority of Democrats (83%) say they are “very” or “somewhat” concerned about violence from Republicans who won’t accept the election results if Vice President Kamala Harris wins. And 76% of Republicans say they are concerned about violence perpetrated by Democrats if Trump wins.

The poll was conducted on Aug. 2-3, 2024, among 1,011 registered U.S. voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Earlier this month, President Joe Biden said he’s “not confident at all” that there will be a peaceful transfer of power should Trump lose.

Trump has repeatedly said he’ll accept the election results if they are fair. “If everything’s honest, I’ll gladly accept the results. I don’t change on that,” Trump told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel in May. “If it’s not, you have to fight for the right of the country.” In the June presidential debate, Trump said he would “absolutely” accept the results “if it’s a fair and legal and good election.”

But Trump has already begun to cast doubt on the upcoming election’s legitimacy. In a North Carolina rally Wednesday, Trump implied his victory is a done deal, so long as the process is fair. “Our primary focus is not to get out the vote, it is to make sure they don’t cheat,” Trump said. “We have all the votes we’ll need.”

In response to Biden saying he’s “not confident” Trump will accept the results of the election, Trump said there will be. “Of course there’ll be a peaceful transfer, and there was last time,” Trump said.

After Trump lost the 2020 election, he insisted that the election was not fair and pushed for it to be overturned. A mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an attempt to impede the certification of that election.

Trump’s role in inciting that rally and interfering with a peaceful transition of power are at the center of a federal case against Trump, where he is indicted on four criminal counts. Trump was impeached in 2021 for inciting an insurrection.

In the Deseret News/HarrisX poll, nearly half — 46% — of Republican voters fear violence from their fellow Republicans should Harris win the election.

Among Democratic voters, 38% say they fear violence from their fellow Democrats should Trump be elected.

In the wake of the 2016 election, there were multiple protests that turned violent, when anti-Trump demonstrations broke out in New York, Chicago, Portland and other cites. Portland was also the location of political violence in 2020, when the federal courthouse in the city was vandalized and set on fire.

Voters trust federal elections less than local ones

Voters are more likely to say they trust local elections than national ones. Seventy-eight percent of voters say they are “very” or “somewhat” confident in the validity of the results of local elections, and 74% said the same of state elections. But of presidential elections, 67% of voters said they are confident.

Among Republicans, only 57% say they are confident in federal elections, compared to 84% of Democrats.

A similar partisan division arises when voters are asked about contesting election results. Asked whether the president “has the necessary legal and legislative mechanisms in place to successfully adjudicate disagreement over election results,” two-thirds of all voters — 66% — say the president does. But only 53% of Republicans say the same, while 81% of Democrats do.

When asked what changes, if any, are needed to improve U.S. elections, the most popular reforms are mandatory ID checks (42%), more supervision of vote counting (30%) and reducing the amount of money in politics and political advertising (22%). Only 36% of Republicans think the U.S. should reduce mail-in voting — something Trump called fraudulent in 2020.