Generative artificial intelligence has been at the heart of labor negotiations this past year, including the WGA and SAG-AFTRA bargaining that led to a historic double strike, as well as the recently ratified Basic Agreement with entertainment workers from art directors to editors.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that AI’s impact on Hollywood has emerged once again as a central issue as the Animation Guild (IATSE Local 839) — representing an estimated 5,000 artists, technicians, writers and production workers in the animation industry — begins bargaining with the AMPTP this week for a new contract.

A recent survey developed by VIP+ in collaboration with HarrisX and fielded online by HarrisX May 2-13, 2024, underscores the concern in this space. Asked to what extent generative AI will impact entertainment industry roles in the next two years, 55% of respondents expected major impact on animators and an additional 29% anticipated minor impact.

In preparation for its negotiations, TAG commissioned CVL Economics to conduct a survey on the impact of gen AI on entertainment industry jobs. (Conducted Nov. 17-Dec. 22, 2023, it surveyed 300 C-suite leaders, senior executives and mid-level managers.)

Three-fourths of the respondents indicated gen AI tools, software and/or models had already supported the elimination, reduction or consolidation of jobs in their business division. (They also said it had contributed to new job titles).

The survey forecast that about 21.4% of film, television and animation jobs (or approximately 118,500 positions) are likely to have a sufficient number of tasks affected to be either consolidated, replaced or eliminated by gen AI in the U.S. by 2026.

The guild is being tight-lipped about the specifics of its proposals, but president Jeanette Moreno King confirms includes language from WGA, SAG-AFTRA and/or IATSE wins to inform its bargaining plans, as well as new language more specific to TAG members.

The former presumably includes periodic meetings with parties during the terms of the agreement to discuss and review information related to producers’ use and intended use of AI, as well as agreement to indemnify employees from liability amid concerns about potential legal action surrounding copyrights.

Animation workers use various software tools that already incorporate some AI and machine learning capabilities, such as Adobe and Autodesk. The latter, for instance, recently announced a new ML Deformer for its Maya 3D software, developed to “enable artists to work with complex characters for animation, VFX and game projects.”

Meanwhile many companies are developing their own proprietary software. The rate at which AI tools are developing make it tricky to anticipate the precise speed of the impact on the animation business.

To kick off the negotiations, TAG held a Stand With Animation rally on Saturday. It had received a statement of solidarity from the DGA, IATSE, Teamsters, WGAE, WGAW, SAG-AFTRA and others.