Stagwell today released the results of the July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX. The new poll found that after an unprecedented month in American politics that witnessed a failed assassination attempt on former President Trump and President Biden stepping aside in favor of Vice President Harris running as the Democratic candidate in November, the horserace has reset to a 3-point lead for Trump, 48% to 45%, with 7% still undecided.

Both Trump and Harris have benefited from a jump in favorability due to these events, now tied at 48% and 47% favorability, respectively. Nevertheless, with 24% of voters saying they could change their mind, the matchup is highly competitive.

"The Democratic Party has recovered from what was a Titanic — the iceberg of age was sinking them rapidly," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "Kamala Harris has come with lifeboats to put the race back where it was."

The July poll covers public opinion on the candidates and the GOP policy platform coming out of the Republican National Convention. Download key results here.

HARRIS RE-ENERGIZES DEMOCRATS

• 79% of voters approve of Biden's decision to step down, and 55% approve of his endorsement of Harris including 92% of Democrats.
• Compared to June, more Democrats say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (+5 points), and less Independents are unsure of who they would vote for (-10 points). Most of those undecided Independent voters say they would vote for Harris (Harris: +7 points; Trump: +3 points).
• Harris performs better among minority voters with the support of a plurality of women (48%), Black (67%), and Hispanic (47%) voters.
• 24% of voters say they have not made up their mind on who they will vote for, including 20% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans, and 41% of Independents.

BIDEN'S DECISION TO STEP ASIDE HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON APPROVAL RATINGS

• Biden's approval rating remains low at 42%, up 2 points from June.
• 54% of voters say they approve of the job Trump did as president, up 2 points from June. Among minority voters, 53% of Hispanic voters and 40% of Black voters approve.
• Across political parties, inflation remains the most important issue to voters personally. 48% of voters say their personal financial situation is worsening, especially among women (53%), Hispanic (51%), and rural (57%) voters.
• 65% of Black voters approve of the Democratic Party, while 59% of white voters and 52% of Hispanic voters disapprove.

HARRIS WINS ON PERSONALITY BUT IS SEEN AS CONTINUITY OF BIDEN, DIVERGING FROM ELECTORATE ON KEY POLICY PREFERENCES

• Between the two candidates, more voters believe Harris has the right temperament, is more trustworthy, and is more honest, while more voters perceive Trump as a fighter and someone who will get things done.
• 67% of voters say Harris will continue Biden administration policies on issues like taxes, inflation, immigration, and energy. Roughly half believe she is politically aligned with Biden.
• A majority of voters oppose open borders (67%), ending private healthcare options (68%), and mandating the replacement of gas cars with electric vehicles (72%) — but a majority believe Harris supports those policies (borders: 69%; healthcare: 53%; electric vehicles: 72%).
• Josh Shapiro and Mark Kelly are the VP nominees who would be most helpful to Harris.

MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT GOP PLATFORM COMING OUT OF THE CONVENTION

• A majority of voters support GOP platform initiatives like protecting social security and Medicare, ending inflation, and stopping violence and crime, including over 89% of Republicans and over 79% of Independents across every policy issue.
• 33% of voters think the Republican Party left out abortion from its policy platform because the party believes it is a state decision. A plurality of Democratic (31%), 18-24 year-old (23%), and Black (24%) voters believe the party has a secret plan to ban abortion.
• 45% of voters and 76% of Republicans approve of J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, but roughly half of voters say the selection has no impact on their vote.

VOTERS SUPPORT ISRAEL IN THE FACE OF HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS, WANT GAZA TO BE ADMINISTERED BY ARAB NATIONS

• 66% of voters believe Israel should retaliate if Hezbollah keeps firing rockets into the north (age 18-24: 46%; ages 65+: 82%).
• 82% of voters say Hamas should be removed from power in Gaza, consistent with June sentiment.
• A plurality of voters (38%) think Gaza should be administered by a new authority set up through negotiations with Arab nations.

The July Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted within the United States on July 26-28, 2024, among 2,196 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:
Kara Gelber
pr@stagwellglobal.com

SOURCE Stagwell Inc.