Utah Gov. Spencer Cox leads his general election opponent, Rep. Brian King, D-Salt Lake City, by 40 percentage points in a head-to-head contest, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll.

If the election for Utah governor were held today, the poll found that 59% of Utah registered voters say they would cast their ballot for Cox, the Republican nominee; 19% say they would vote for King, the Democratic nominee; and 23% say they don’t know or are unsure.

Cox’s hypothetical winning margin — 74 days out from Election Day — increased by 4 percentage points when undecided voters were asked to choose between the two major party candidates whose names will appear on the ballot in November.

“Gov. Spencer Cox and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson are grateful for the broad base of support that these numbers demonstrate,” said Cox’s campaign spokesperson, Matt Lusty. “They appreciate the team effort of everyday Utahns from across the state who have led Utah to being ranked by U.S. News and World Report as the best performing state in the nation. Gov. Cox and Lt. Gov. Henderson will continue to work hard until Election Day to earn every vote possible by sharing their message of fiscal responsibility and conservative leadership with Utah voters.”

This lead remained unchanged when voters were asked to choose between Cox, King and the two third-party candidates who qualified for the ballot, without being able to choose unsure as an option. Cox finished with 65% of the vote, King with 21%, Independent American Party candidate Tommy Williams with 8% and Libertarian Party candidate J. Robert Latham with 6% of the vote.

The poll matches up closely with the outcomes of the previous two general elections for Utah governor. In 2020, Cox defeated Chris Peterson 64%-31%. In 2016, former Gov. Gary Herbert defeated Mike Weinholtz 67%-30%.

“Challenging a popular incumbent is often a difficult task, and Governor Cox’s polling numbers prove this reality,” said Jason Perry, director of the University of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics. “To be successful, challengers need to build substantial name identification, raise large amounts of money, and articulate a compelling alternative vision for the state. These are all hard to do against a well-known incumbent which has put Governor Cox in a strong position.”

The poll was conducted from Aug. 2-9 among 800 registered voters in Utah by HarrisX. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Cox vs. King

Cox is running for re-election at the close of his first four-year term in office. The governor, who previously served as lieutenant governor for seven years, has campaigned on a record of supporting the Legislature in historic tax cuts, abortion restrictions and Second Amendment legislation. Cox has also led out on efforts to protect children from the harms of social media and incentivize the construction of first-time homes.

King has criticized Cox for allegedly amplifying “extreme” voices in his party on anti-DEI legislation and increased penalties for individuals who use public bathrooms that don’t match their biological sex.

As the former state House minority leader, King proposed gun control legislation requiring universal background checks on gun sales and led opposition to Utah’s 2020 law prohibiting elective abortions. King has billed his campaign as a way to restore balance to Utah’s Republican supermajority government and to give better representation to Utah’s diverse population.

In a statement given to the Deseret News, King said the poll results did not reflect his true support among Utahns disenchanted with the trajectory of the GOP and excluded the write-in campaign of failed primary candidate state Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding.

“This race has fundamentally shifted in recent days and the momentum is on our side,” said King’s campaign manager, Gabi Finlayson. “The recent poll, conducted before Phil Lyman’s write-in campaign and our ad went viral, does not include Lyman as an option and fails to reflect the current divisions within the Republican party.”

Since losing the GOP primary election on June 25 by over 37,500 votes, Lyman has called Utah’s election system “corrupt” and said he doesn’t believe Cox should be on the general election ballot. Lyman launched a write-in campaign for governor shortly after the Utah Supreme Court denied Lyman’s request to remove Cox and Henderson from office and advance himself to the general election.

“Governor Cox faces a serious challenge from Lyman’s campaign,” Finlayson said. “This write-in campaign highlights Cox’s inability to satisfy his own party.”

A write-in wrinkle to Utah’s gubernatorial race

Cox enters the general election season after emerging from a difficult Republican primary. Cox defeated Lyman, his GOP challenger, in the June 25 election by 9 percentage points — a solid victory by any standard, but less than his predecessors’ primary re-election margins.

While Cox won the state GOP convention in 2020 with 55% of delegate support, he lost to Lyman in 2024, 67.5%-32.5%, becoming the first signature-gathering incumbent not to meet the party’s 40% threshold at convention since a signature route was established 10 years ago, according to former GOP party chairman Spencer Stokes.

Lyman ran a relentless primary campaign accusing Cox of being overly welcoming to migrants and not aggressive enough on social issues. Shortly before his loss in the primary, Lyman began throwing doubt on the validity of Cox’s primary ballot qualification.

On Aug. 15, Lyman joined forces with King for a “Disagree Better”-style attack ad against Cox, poking fun at the governor’s initiative to bring down the temperature in political rhetoric, and advertising Lyman’s decision to launch a write-in campaign for governor. The ad says it was paid for by “Brian for Utah.”

In response to the Lyman-King ad, the Cox campaign highlighted King’s liberal record and framed Lyman’s write-in campaign as sour grapes.

“The choice voters have this fall is clear: Utah values or liberal, California-style policy positions,” Lusty said. “Losing is hard, but encouraging others to elect someone who believes in a Gavin Newsom style of government is the wrong solution for Utah.”

In the four-way general election survey question, Cox received support from 75% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats. King received support from 57% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. Cox led with 42% of independents, while King trailed with 17% of the independent vote and Williams and Latham split the remainder.

Around 15% of Republican and Democratic voters said they were unsure who they supported, and 22% of independents said they didn’t know who they would vote for.

HarrisX CEO Dritan Nesho said “barring any unforeseen circumstances or surprises” Cox, and Republican Rep. John Curtis, who is running against Caroline Gleich for U.S. Senate in Utah, “are both likely to win.”

“At this stage, there’s just not enough undecideds sitting on the fence to prohibit Cox’s re-election to Governor or Curtis’s Senate win,” he said.