Published on July 2, 2024 by Doug Blair, Data Journalist at HarrisX

New HarrisX polling following the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle featuring former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden shows a clear winner. 62% of voters say that Trump was the winner of the debate, versus just 38% who said Biden won.

Though that number is couched by many voters who think neither one of the candidates did very well. If that option is thrown into the mix, 33% of voters panned both Trump and Biden, while a plurality, 44%, still said Trump did better.

Our poll also tracked voter’s perceptions of who won based on a variety of different metrics. To start, let’s dive into how the sexes viewed the winner. Men by and large favored Donald Trump, who earned the approval of 66% of male viewers. Women agreed, but by a smaller margin at 58%.When asked if both or neither candidate did better, most men still said Trump won at 54%. A plurality of women said neither candidate won at 41%.

We saw similar splits amongst racial groups. Biden eked outa win with Black voters, long a staple Democratic voting bloc, at 52% versus 48%for Trump. Hispanic voters were slightly more split, with 55% saying Trump won and 45% saying Biden did. The most split racial group was white voters. Trump definitively won with white voters, at 66% versus Biden’s 34%

Amongst Republicans, the winner was clear. 95% ofRepublicans said Trump. Democrats were more split, but still favored Biden. 72%say that Biden won, with more than a quarter giving Trump the win. Independents leaned towards Trump, with 63% saying Trump won and 37% saying Biden did.  

Another point of difference existed with the urban/rural divide. Amongst urban voters, Biden clinched 49% of poll respondents, with 51%breaking for Trump. That ratio radically flipped for rural voters, who strongly viewed Trump as the winner with 74% support and just 26% for Biden.

One final division to note is age, where results were allover the place. Amongst young voters aged 18-34, Trump led with 63% against Biden's37%. Then for middle-aged voters aged 35-49, things get closer. 58% say Trump won while 42% say Biden did. Amongst older voters, that number grows further apart. For them, Trump won with 65% of the vote, compared to 35% for Biden.

The first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle was a clear victory for former President Trump. Trump won with multiple demographics, even those that traditionally break for Democrats like urban voters, women, and young voters. Joe Biden was only competitive with Democratic voters and black voters, and by smaller margins than he should be comfortable with. Biden will need to perform better next debate or hope that these results aren’t reflective of larger voting patterns if he hopes to win come November.

About the Post-Debate Poll:

This survey was conducted online within the United States from June 28 - 30 among 1,500 registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of registered voters. Results were weighted for age,gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, area type, education, ideology, and party ID where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

For the full findings, please CLICK HERE and also see our Forbes Newsroom Video where our CEO, Dritan Nesho explores and discusses these findings further.