Former President Donald Trump expanded his lead in the 2024 race in the days following the Republican National Convention, according to a new online Forbes/HarrisX survey—but it's still unclear whether President Joe Biden's seismic decision Sunday to drop out of the race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris will shake up the election.

Trump led both Biden and Harris by six points (53% to 47%) in the July 19-21 survey, a two-point jump in Trump’s lead over Harris and a four-point increase in his lead over Biden since a July 13-15 poll taken immediately after the assassination attempt against Trump (the polls included respondents who were undecided but leaning toward one candidate).

The July 19-21 poll was taken before Biden bowed out of the race, so Harris was still a hypothetical candidate in the survey, which polled 2,753 registered voters (margin of error 1.9 points).

Harris trails Trump by nine points in the latest survey when respondents were given the option to choose “don’t know/unsure,” a two-point increase for Trump from polls taken July 13-15 and June 28-30 that include undecided voters and show Trump leading Harris by seven points.

Biden trails Trump by eight points in the July 19-21 poll when respondents were given the option to choose “undecided.”

A plurality of voters (46%) said Trump’s RNC speech—in which he stuck to his usual talking points on immigration, election fraud and his baseless claims that his legal woes amounted to Democrat-backed political persecution—had no impact on their voting preference, while 22% said it made them less likely to vote for him and 33% said it make them more likely to back him.

Among independent voters, 28% said it made them more likely to back Trump and 19% said it made them less likely, while 5% of Republicans said they were less likely to support Trump after the speech and 9% of Democrats said they were more likely.

BIG NUMBER

38%. That’s the approval rating for both Biden and Harris, according to the July 19-21 poll.

CONTRA

Harris has a higher approval rating among young Democrats, ages 18-34, and Hispanic Democrats, two groups who Biden has lost support among since the 2020 election, according to polls. Harris’ approval rating among Hispanic Democrats stands at 68% versus Biden’s 62%, while her approval rating among young Democrats is 62%, versus 55% for Biden.

TANGENT

Harris’ performance in the HarrisX/Forbes poll is similar to her standing in other polls taken in the aftermath of Biden’s June 27 debate performance showing Trump with a narrow lead over both Biden and Harris, with some polls showing Harris performing better than Biden against Trump and others showing her performing worse. A CBS News/YouGov poll taken July 16-18 found Trump led Harris by three points (51%-48%) and Biden by five (52%-47%) and a July 13-16 Economist/YouGov poll found Biden trailing Trump by two points and Harris by five.

KEY BACKGROUND

Trump has widened his narrow lead over Biden in the wake of their consequential June 27 debate that sparked a Democratic revolt against Biden, culminating with his announcement Sunday that he was dropping out of the race. Biden endorsed Harris and she quickly announced she would run to replace him. While Democrats are in turmoil, Trump has notched several wins since the debate, including surviving an assassination attempt, accepting his party’s nomination for a third time on Thursday and persuading a judge to dismiss the federal case accusing him of mishandling classified documents. Trump’s speech on Thursday—the longest in RNC history that broke his own record set at the 2016 convention—quickly diverted from his promised message of “unity.” After beginning the speech by briefly recounting the assassination attempt against him, Trump reverted back to attacking Democrats, calling former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., “crazy” and alleging the “10 worst presidents in the history of the United States . . . they will not have done the damage that Biden has done.”