Source:

Gage Skidmore : https://www.flickr.com/people/22007612@N05

The 2020 Pundits May Be Emphatic, But They’re Routinely Wrong

April 9, 2019

The newspaper headlines and cable TV newscasts went into “scandal!” mode with complaints from women who came forth to point out that former vice president Joe Biden has about as much respect for personal space as a golden retriever puppy. How many columns and soundbites have tried to equate Biden’s touchy-feely habits with sexual harassment and assault? Too many to count.

Do Democratic voters care? There’s scant evidence that Biden has been harmed by complaints timed to coincide with his anticipated announcement. In the latest Hill-HarrisX poll, “Biden enjoyed a strong lead among respondents who identified as Democrats. The former vice president was the top choice of 36 percent of party loyalists compared to [Sen. Bernie] Sanders’s 19 percent. [Sen. Kamala D.] Harris was the third-most popular choice among Democratic voters with 9 percent.” Likewise, in the Morning Consult poll, Biden remains in the low 30s (33 percent), with Sanders back at 25 percent. We should keep in mind that no poll is predictive as to the outcome of the race, but polling does reflect the relative strength of the candidates at this moment.

What other punditry hasn’t exactly panned out as advertised? Well, the notion that being a white male is a handicap in the race doesn’t seem to have held up. (Three of the consistent top four contenders are white males.) To the contrary, there’s an ingrained aversion among many Democrats to “risking” the election on a woman or nonwhite nominee. (I find that perverse for a party dependent on a diverse coalition; insiders’ cynicism becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy that handicaps nonwhites and women, but the sentiment is unmistakable.)

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