Since he formally entered the race, polls have confirmed what many observers long assumed: Joe Biden is the front-runner for the 2020 Democratic nomination. CNN, Quinnipiac, the Hill, Harvard/Harris and Morning Consult have all registered strong post-announcement polling bumps for the former vice president, and he leads his closest rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), 39 percent to 15.5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of national surveys.

One source of Biden’s strength is voters who look like him — older, whiter voters who don’t identify themselves with the far-left wing of the party. But despite the perception that Biden is the candidate who can bring white working-class voters back to the Democratic Party, and the presence of prominent black candidates in the race, he is, at least so far, overwhelmingly the choice of nonwhite voters. Those numbers might seem surprising, but they’re also a reminder not to make easy assumptions about why black voters are such staunch Democrats.

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